548
FXUS64 KLZK 230538
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1138 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 125 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Under mostly clear skies and high pressure conditions, afternoon
temperatures are peaking in the 50s to lower 60s this afternoon.
Lows tonight will drop into the lower to mid 30s across the state,
creating favorable conditions for frost to develop during the early
morning hours.

Upper ridging and surface High pressure will shift across the region
over the next couple of days. The ridge will weaken and upper flow
will become more zonal through this time. The center of the High
will shift east of the state Saturday and low-level flow will shift
to come out of the south, returning warmer air and moisture to the
region. By Sunday afternoon, temperatures will peak in the upper 60s
to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 125 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

To begin the period, a mostly quiet weather pattern will be over the
state as a weak surface low tracks towards the Great Lakes
region...this will bring quasi-zonal flow aloft bringing slightly
warmer conditions with the chance for low-end PoPs Tuesday across
mainly northern locations. This pattern will be short lived as a
stronger low pressure system approaches the state Wednesday and
Thursday...by then, widespread rain will be expected with more
seasonable to below average temperatures.

While it is still too early to say, some model guidance is beginning
to suggest wintry weather across northern AR will be possible...but
time will tell. With that said, it does appear Thanksgiving Day
might be on the wetter side with rainfall possible across much of
the state. Severe weather is not expected at this time.

As mentioned above, temperatures will start out on the warmer end
early in the period before dropping to below average by the end of
the period. Highs on Monday are expected to be in the lower 60s to
upper 70s with overnight lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Highs
are expected to drop into the mid 40s to upper 50s by the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conds will cont thru the fcst period, with just some high lvl
clouds passing acrs the region at times. Cannot rule out locally
dense fog near the larger bodies of water arnd daybreak, but wl
cont to monitor.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...44