551
FXUS64 KLZK 182013
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
313 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Increased S-SW winds remain in place across the state this
afternoon as the pressure gradient remains enhanced. This has led
to occasional gusts between 30-40 mph along with some occasional
blowing dust, especially across northeast Arkansas this
afternoon.

H500 pattern the next couple days will be characterized by
persistent ridging focused from the Gulf across the SE US while
longwave troughing extends from NW of the Great Lakes toward the
Four Corners. This is providing a continuous stream of mid-level
SW flow across much of the middle of the country, with Arkansas
included. At the sfc, ridging will be in place to the SE while a
cold front extends from northern MO to southwest OK this
afternoon. This front may continue to sag southeast a bit more
before tonight and will remain the focus for showers and
thunderstorms tonight through the weekend.

Several rounds of rain and thunderstorms will move along the front
through Saturday and with anomalously high PW values (1.25-1.75
inches), a flash flood threat may develop. Both the flash flood
and severe weather threat will be tied to the location of this
front over the next couple of days. With the flow aloft and at the
sfc largely out of the SW, there won`t be much E/SE motion to
storms that develop and they will repeatedly move over the same
area. This will enhance the flash flood threat, especially just
to the northwest of the forecast area.

For Saturday, the front may shift a bit more SE into the state
with the expected severe weather threat accompanying this move.
Main concerns for storms tonight and again Saturday into Saturday
night will be hail and damaging wind gusts. The slightly higher
tornado threat appears to be just west of the state into portions
of Oklahoma.

Things will finally begin to shift eastward on Sunday as a
compact, more pronounced H500 cyclone lifts NE toward the Great
Lakes by Sunday evening. At the sfc, a corresponding low will
form along the front and move NE as well which will help the cold
front make a final push across the state. As this occurs, the last
round of rain/storms is expected to move across the area with a
severe threat accompanying the activity once again. With the mid-
level and sfc lows moving NE across Missouri Sunday, a more
favorable severe weather environment may evolve just to the north
of AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

A cold front wl be situated acrs western AR early Sun evening, with
an assocd line of strong/severe storms ahead of the bndry. The
potential for severe wx wl linger into Sun evening, but shld
diminish overnight as conds stabilize and the main energy shifts
north the FA.

Model solutions cont to show that the aforementioned cold front wl
cont to move slowly to the east/southeast into Mon, with rain chcs
decreasing behind it. The bndry wl eventually stall out to the
southeast of AR by Tue, as the upper flow de-amplifies and is
replaced by quasi-zonal flow.

A weak sfc high wl slide acrs the Mid-South later Mon ngt into early
Tue, then shift to the east. This wl provide a brief respite in rain
chcs for most of the FA. The assocd airmass wl be Pacific origin, so
temps wl rmn at abv seasonal norms. Highs wl range fm the mid 70s to
lower 80s, with nighttime lows in the 50s and 60s.

Unsettled conds return by Wed and cont thru the remainder of the
work week. With a southwest upper flow pattern returning, a series
of SWT`s wl traverse the FA durg the PD. These features wl interact
with the northward returning sfc front, to produce periodic rounds
of showers/storms. Fcst confidence durg this timeframe is still
limited, esp regarding the potential for heavy rainfall/flooding
concerns, as well as the positioning of the bndry. Wl cont to monitor
trends heading into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Primarily VFR conditions in place across the state at this time,
with a few cigs near MVFR levels. Winds out of the S-SW will
persist through the period, with gusts to 20 kts or higher at
times. Chances for RA/TS activity will be highest across N/NW AR
terminals after 19/00z through the end of the period. Elsewhere,
MVFR/IFR cigs are expected before daybreak Saturday with some
improvement expected before mid-day Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  82  65  83 /  20  20  50  40
Camden AR         67  84  66  83 /   0  10  10  50
Harrison AR       62  74  60  75 /  80  70  90  90
Hot Springs AR    67  82  65  81 /  10  20  40  70
Little Rock   AR  68  83  67  83 /  10  10  30  50
Monticello AR     67  84  67  86 /   0   0  10  30
Mount Ida AR      67  82  64  81 /  20  30  50  80
Mountain Home AR  63  75  61  78 /  70  60  80  70
Newport AR        69  82  66  82 /  10  10  40  30
Pine Bluff AR     67  84  67  85 /   0   0  10  40
Russellville AR   67  81  64  81 /  40  40  70  80
Searcy AR         67  82  65  83 /  10  10  40  40
Stuttgart AR      69  83  68  83 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday evening
for ARZ004>006-014-015-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-
203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ARZ008-017.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ008-017-025-034.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...67