851
FXUS64 KLZK 160644
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
144 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

-Oppressive heat will continue this Sunday and into some of this
coming work week

-Upper ridge will move west early this week...which will bring some
slight relief for portions of the state

-Some chances for afternoon convection return to the forecast
 today...and especially for Monday as a weak front moves into the
 state

-Stronger front may bring more significant relief from the heat late
this week into the upcoming weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Quiet conditions are ongoing across the region once again...with
mainly light winds allowing for temps to slowly dip into the upper
70s to mid 80s early this Sun morning. Expect lows to drop back into
the 70s to near 80 by around sunrise.

The center of the upper ridge remains over portions of the state
early this Sun morning...though this ridge looks to start slowly
shifting wast starting this afternoon. Some slight weakness in the
upper ridge by this afternoon could allow for some very isolated
convective activity to develop over portions of the state...mainly
across NRN/NWRN sections. Most areas will remain dry however...with
highs in the upper 90s to over 100...and heat index vales likely 100
to over 110.

The upper ridge will shift further west for Mon...allowing for a
weak SFC front to drop south into the state. Chances for isolated
and even some widely scattered convection will increase as this
front drops south into central AR by Mon afternoon. This activity
may allow for temps Mon afternoon to remain below 100 over NRN
AR...but could still reach 100+ over central sections before any
precip develops. SRN sections will still see the very hot conditions
persist...as precip chances should remain a bit lower in this region
of the state.

Keep heat headlines persisting into Mon afternoon/evening...though
some adjustments could be done for Mon if temps/heat index values
stay lower behind the front for NRN sections. However...even with
the upper ridge shifting further west on Tue...and NW flow aloft is
seen into the middle of the week...may still need additional heat
headlines into the middle of the week.

Upper ridging looks to return some by the middle/latter half of the
week briefly...with hot conditions expected. However...a new front
looks to move into the region late this week into the upcoming
weekend as a more substantial upper shortwave drops south over the
region. This late forecast front looks more aggressive...which may
provide a bit more relief and better rain chances by the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conds are expected through the TAF period. Scattered PM SHRA`s
are possible over Nrn AR ahead of an approaching frontal boundary
but due to low confidence in development and coverage, opted to
not include at KHRO and KBPK at this time. Elsewhere, conds
should be dry. Winds on Sunday should be W/SW at 5-15 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR    104  79  98  74 /  20  20  40  30
Camden AR        100  77 100  75 /   0   0  10  10
Harrison AR       98  75  91  71 /  20  20  20  20
Hot Springs AR   102  78 103  75 /   0  10  30  20
Little Rock   AR 102  81 102  77 /  10  10  40  30
Monticello AR    101  81 102  78 /   0   0  20  20
Mount Ida AR      99  77 101  74 /  10  10  30  20
Mountain Home AR  98  75  92  71 /  20  20  20  20
Newport AR       103  78  97  74 /  20  10  40  40
Pine Bluff AR    100  79 100  75 /   0   0  20  20
Russellville AR  102  78 102  75 /  10  10  40  30
Searcy AR        102  78 100  74 /  10  10  40  40
Stuttgart AR     101  80 101  76 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ004-005-014-024-042-
043-052>056-062>064-066>069-103-112-113-123-137-140-141-203-212-
213-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ006>008-
015>017-025-031>034-039-044>047-057-065-121-122-130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...70