838
FXUS64 KLZK 141717 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1217 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Scattered afternoon showers/storms possible over Cntrl/S/SE
  Arkansas today

- Heat Advisories in effect for much of Arkansas Monday & Tuesday

- Expansive upper ridge to build back over Arkansas through Saturday

- Anomalously hot and dry conditions anticipated through Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Today, few to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
possible across mainly Cntrl/S/SE AR associated with abundant low-
level moisture coupled with peak diurnal heating. The main
thunderstorm hazard with any of the stronger convection would be
damaging straight-line winds. Otherwise, dry and hot conds can be
expected across the state. Highs today and Tuesday should range from
the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Factoring in the humid airmass in
place and heat index values ranging from 105 to 110 are expected
each afternoon across a large part of the state. Given this, a Heat
Advisory is in effect across all but NW and N-Cntrl AR through at
least Tuesday evening.

Heading through middle-to-late part of this week, a stout upper
ridge will become re-established across the Srn CONUS. During this
time, the center of high pressure will meander about the region
between features to the W and E of the ridge axis. Underneath the
ridge, highs will range from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees each
day. Rain chances will remain minimal, or spotty at best, with heat
index values topping out between 95 and 110.

As we progress through middle part of September it becomes
increasingly difficult to reach 100 degrees due to decreasing
overhead sun angle, expected increase in average precip, and
decreasing amount of daylight with each passing day. To oppose these
natural cooling expectations one would expect, a strengthening and
amplifying ridge on the order of ~597-600 decameters will remain in
place across the region. For those curious about climatological
average temps for this time of year, Little Rock - Average Low 64,
Average High 86; Pine Bluff - Average Low 64, Average High 87;
Harrison - Average Low 59, Average High 82. In summary, average
highs and lows are expected to range from 10-15 degrees above
climatological average through Saturday.

While Sunday is pretty far out in the long term, there are some
indications that the ridge could shift Ewrd as an upper trough moves
into the nations mid-section. If this happens, rain chances could
increase locally while simultaneously lowering temps to end the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR condns are expected thru the TAF PD. Scattered diurnal Cu were
noted on recent vissat imgry. Some VCSH/TS wl be possible acrs
SErn AR thru Mon evng, but impacts to local terminals are not
anticipated. Srly winds of 5 to 10 kts wl prevail thru Mon evng,
before settling and becoming variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74 101  74 100 /   0  10   0   0
Camden AR         72  98  73  98 /  10  10   0  10
Harrison AR       73  96  73  95 /   0   0   0  20
Hot Springs AR    74  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  76  99  77  98 /  10  10   0   0
Monticello AR     75  98  75  97 /  10   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      72  98  72  98 /   0   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  72  98  73  97 /   0   0  10   0
Newport AR        75  99  75  99 /   0  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     73  97  74  97 /  10  10   0   0
Russellville AR   74 100  74  99 /  10   0   0  10
Searcy AR         73 100  73 100 /   0  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      76 100  76 100 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ007-008-016-017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121>123-130-137-138-140-
141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...72