719
FXUS64 KLZK 171641
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Another quiet night ongoing across the Natural State early this Sun
morning...with dry conditions...a mostly clear sky...and temps in
the mid 70s to low 80s. There was some isolated convection noted
during the afternoon into the evening hrs...but all that activity
has dissipated by before midnight. The center of the upper ridge is
located just to the north over SRN MO early this morning.

As the ridge becomes nearly stationary today...expect nearly a
repeat of what happened on Sat for this Sun. Expect temps today to
be in the low 90s to just over 100 once again. Have expanded the
Heat Adv to include all but the highest terrain of the Ozarks for
the next 2 days as heat index values will max out from near 105 to
approaching 110 at times in these areas. The higher terrain of the
Ozarks will see heat index values peaking in the upper 90s to just
over 100. Will also see the potential for afternoon isolated
convection once again...advertised relatively well in the CAMs this
afternoon. Have bumped POPs over the FB/NBM output for this
potential.

The upper ridge looks to gradually shift west throughout the
week...with heights aloft gradually dropping. Initially...the
influence of the upper ridge will remain the dominant wx
maker...keeping temps well above normal with highs in the 90s to over
100...even as heights aloft lower. Temps at 850mb will warm
gradually into Tue...which will aide in keeping temps hot. Humidity
levels will remain high as well...and there will be continued heat
related forecast concerns and headlines. Now...what may bring some
relief will be the potential for afternoon pulse convection
increasing some each day with the lowering upper level heights.

As the upper ridge shifts further west by the middle to latter half
of the week...AR will transition to be under a more NRLY/NWRLY flow
aloft. This will result in cooler temps...and better potential for
afternoon convection as a cold front drops south into/through the
state. This setup will bring some relief to the hot/humid
conditions...as well as bringing better chances for beneficial
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Expect VFR flight category to be present across all sites for the
entire duration of the forecast period from Sunday afternoon through
Monday afternoon. Surface winds will be variable across all
terminals to begin the period and remain so through the duration of
the forecast period until Monday morning post-sunrise. TEMPO group
has been added for the possibility isolated -TSRA across all sites
on Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening as thunderstorms may
developed, will be isolated in nature, but may impact the forecasted
TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74 100  75 100 /  20  20  20  30
Camden AR         74 100  74 101 /  20  20  20  10
Harrison AR       73  97  73  97 /  20   0  10  40
Hot Springs AR    75 102  76 102 /  20  20  20  20
Little Rock   AR  76 100  76 100 /  20  20  20  20
Monticello AR     75 101  75 102 /  20  20  20  10
Mount Ida AR      73 100  74 100 /  20  20  20  20
Mountain Home AR  73  99  73  98 /  20  20  20  40
Newport AR        75 100  76 100 /  20  10  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     75 101  75 101 /  20  20  20  10
Russellville AR   76 102  77 102 /  20  20  20  20
Searcy AR         74 101  75 101 /  20  20  20  20
Stuttgart AR      76 101  76 101 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-113-121>123-130-137-
138-140-141-212-213-223-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ007-008-016-
017-025-031>034-039-043>047-053>057-062>069-121-122-130-138-230-
238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74