


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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035 FXUS64 KLZK 012306 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 606 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 + Much of Arkansas will see a reprieve from the heat through at least through Thursday as cooler air from the north works its way across the state on Tuesday. + Isolated to scattered storms will be possible across central to southeastern Arkansas Tuesday afternoon to evening, with a conditional threat for severe weather, including strong wind gusts and some hail. + Heat and humidity are expected to return by next weekend. Along with heat, more widespread rain chances appear possible, and may offset a more prolific heat threat, but uncertainties remain for now. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1123 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Surface analysis early this afternoon shows the cold front currently over far southern Arkansas. Latest run of hi res CAMS shows isolated showers and thunderstorms that would initiate along residual outflow boundaries this afternoon left from convection on Monday afternoon over portions of central Arkansas. The aforementioned CAMs show scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along and north of the boundary over portions of southeast Arkansas. The primary hazard with thunderstorms this afternoon will be damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. For Wednesday through Friday, upper level ridging will build into Arkansas bringing dry conditions to the area with highs on Wednesday and Thursday in the lower 90s. The upper level ridge axis will move across the region sometime Friday into Saturday as temperatures across the state soar into the mid and upper 90s. As the ridge axis moves toward the region Thursday through Saturday, rain chances across the area will remain limited. The hot and humid conditions this weekend into early next week may lead to heat headlines with heat index values in the 100 to 105 range across southern, central, and eastern Arkansas. On Sunday into Monday, a couple weak shortwaves round the periphery of the upper level ridge centered over the Desert southwest. The shortwaves will ride along and south of a weak cold front that will dive out of the northern Plains on Saturday and move to the Ozark Plateau by Sunday. The disturbances will help increase chances for showers and thunderstorms across the state Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Isolated showers and thunderstorms over southern Arkansas will dissipate with the loss of afternoon heating. Light north winds this afternoon will become light and variable through the overnight and morning hours. Winds will veer back to the south and remain light. VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period at all terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 67 90 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 72 94 72 93 / 0 10 0 10 Harrison AR 64 86 66 89 / 0 0 0 10 Hot Springs AR 72 92 72 91 / 0 10 0 10 Little Rock AR 72 92 73 92 / 0 0 0 10 Monticello AR 73 92 73 93 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 70 90 71 91 / 0 10 0 10 Mountain Home AR 65 87 66 90 / 0 0 0 10 Newport AR 69 90 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 71 91 72 92 / 10 0 0 10 Russellville AR 69 91 71 92 / 0 0 0 10 Searcy AR 69 91 70 92 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 72 91 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kelly AVIATION...Kelly