324
FXUS64 KLZK 191930
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
230 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Dry and warm conditions will continue throughout this forecast
period.

These conditions will promote an enhance wildfire danger during
this period and beyond.

SKC conditions again are in place across the state, per latest
observations. Temperatures again were above normal for mid
October.

Surface high pressure extending from the Ohio valley, to the
southern plains will continue to control sensible weather
conditions during this period. Given the nature of early fall
local fuels, the dry and warm conditions will contribute to an
enhanced fire danger across the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

A dry and warm weather pattern will continue as we head into mid
week as a cut off low currently located over the four corners region
of the southwest United States phases in with the jet stream and
lifts northeast over the central plains Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Following the passage of this upper low to the north of
Arkansas, shortwave ridging will build in over the state bringing
strong forcing for subsidence and reinforcing geopotential height
increases aloft consistent with warming temperatures. Forecast high
temperatures on Tuesday are up in the middle 80s with Wednesday`s
high forecast to climb to near record levels in the upper 80s to 90
degrees across much of the state.

Shortwave ridging will move quickly off to the east after Wednesday
with the general flow field aloft transitioning to the northwest. As
this transition takes place, a cold front will push southwest across
the state Wednesday evening and overnight, bringing temperatures
down by about 10 to 15 degrees on average, making things a bit
cooler to round out the upcoming work week. The front looks to
remain dry as it passes through, so no relief from the deteriorating
drought conditions, but offering some relief from the mid-week heat.
It`s not going to get cold, but temperatures will simply return to
above normal instead of near record highs. Highs will be in the
lower 80s with lows in the mid 50s at the end of the week headed
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

SKC conditions will continue through the valid TAF period.
Forecast data displayed via wind roses indicate surface wind flow
at sites, at or greater than 75% of the time, will be between from 90
to 120 degrees (E-ESE), at <= 9kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     44  75  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         43  79  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       44  77  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    46  81  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  48  79  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     47  80  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      43  81  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  44  76  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        45  76  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     44  79  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   44  79  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         44  77  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      45  78  47  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...Cavanaugh
AVIATION...55