483
FXUS64 KLZK 201111 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
611 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

-Hot and dry conditions will remain in place through Sunday

-Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across mainly
 NW Arkansas Sunday night into Monday

-A cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures to the
 state by Tuesday, continuing through much of the upcoming week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

One more day of widespread high temperatures in the mid 90s F to
around 100 F. Td values are expected to be slightly higher than
what was observed on Saturday, but afternoon min RH values are
still expected to bottom out near the 30th percentile. Sfc winds
will remain out of the S/SW at generally less than 10 mph with
some occasional gusts, especially across portions of western and
northern AR.

The H500 ridge that has been in place across Arkansas for the
past few weeks is expected to finally break down and shift south
of the region over the next couple of days. This long overdue
change is due to a mid-level low expected to move east across the
Central Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. At the sfc, a cold front
will approach from the NW and move across the area on Monday.

Ahead of the front, an increase in precip development is expected
from late Sunday into Monday, but will remain largely across
western and northern portions of the state. Did include some
broader low pops on Monday, but widespread meaningful
precipitation is not expected. Some localized relief could be
seen. Behind the front cooler temperatures are expected across the
state, but temperatures will generally remain near to above
seasonal average.

Cooler temperatures and dry conditions will persist through much
of the week. Td values are expected to remain in the 50s/60s F
next week which will limit any significant fire weather concerns
when combined with the slightly cooler daily high temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

VFR conditions will remain common at area terminals through most
of the period with sfc winds out of the S/SW at generally less
than 10 kts. Northern AR terminals could see worsening flight
conditions after 21/00z with scattered thunderstorms expected to
approach from the west. TS impacts could lead to reduced cigs/vsby
through the end of the period at KHRO/KBPK. Precip isn`t expected
across any other terminals through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR    100  72  96  68 /   0   0  40  10
Camden AR         98  72  98  70 /   0   0  10  10
Harrison AR       95  69  87  64 /   0  50  70  10
Hot Springs AR    97  73  96  70 /   0   0  20  10
Little Rock   AR  98  74  96  71 /   0   0  20  10
Monticello AR     98  74  97  72 /   0   0  10  10
Mount Ida AR      96  69  95  67 /   0   0  20  10
Mountain Home AR  96  70  89  65 /   0  40  60  10
Newport AR        99  73  96  69 /   0   0  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     98  72  97  70 /   0   0  20  10
Russellville AR   98  72  94  69 /   0   0  30  10
Searcy AR        100  71  97  69 /   0   0  20  10
Stuttgart AR     100  74  99  71 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...67