Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
255 FXUS64 KLZK 221138 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 538 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 304 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 A strong upper low is expected to be over the east coast today with an upper ridge building over the Rockies. The upper low moves offshore Saturday as the upper ridge spreads across much of the country. A Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9 am this morning for parts of southern Arkansas. Surface high pressure will be over Arkansas today through Saturday and begins moving east of the state Saturday night. As a result, winds will be lighter today and the coldest temperatures will be this morning. On Saturday, winds will become southerly and bring warmer temperatures. High temperatures today will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s and in the upper 50s to mid 60s Saturday. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s to the mid 30s and in the upper 30s to mid 40s Saturday night. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 304 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Main message of the long term fcst remains a brief warm up trending towards cooler and more seasonal condns by mid-week next week. Early on in the PD, upper flow wl be somewhat perturbed w/ Cntrl US weak ridging enclosed by progressive troughing over the Pac-N/W and N/Ern US. Quasi-zonal to S/Wrly upper flow over the Rockies wl be leading to developing sfc cyclonic flow invof Cntrl Plains on Sun and into Mon. Thru this timeframe, a lobe of the aforementioned Pac-N/W trof is progged to eject into the mean flow, and quickly deepen into a compact shortwave trof over the Cntrl US, moving into juxtaposition w/ sfc-based cyclonic flow. This should lead to the sfc low quickly advancing N/Ewrd fm the Cntrl Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes region on Mon. Locally, temps wl be trending upwards, though a quick airmass change is fcst, w/ readings to the south of an attendant cdfrnt possibly reaching the upper 70s over the Srn half of the state on Mon. This cdfrnt is progged to quickly move thru the state during the later portion of Mon, w/ incrsg PoPs mainly confined to the Ern half of the FA Mon aftn/evng. Tues, and thru the remainder of the PD, more seasonal temps wl be in place over the region, w/ sfc high pressure settling in, though dry condns do not look to stay for long. Another region of sfc cyclonic flow is progged to quickly develop and move thru the Srn Plains under intermittent locally zonal upper flow, encapsulated by a larger long wave troughing pattern w/ multiple embedded shortwave perturbations. Area-wide rain chances look to resume again as early as Wed, and continue into Thanksgiving Day as the nose of this next developing sfc low advances into the FA, coming into phase w/ another ejecting upper shortwave. Despite cooler air being in place and a somewhat favorable synoptic pattern fcst, it looks like much of the region wl be seeing a cold rain thru Thanksgiving Day, though wl cont to monitor for any winter wx potential as we head into next week. Beyond the long term PD and into early December, long-range ensemble guidance remains indicative of locally colder condns on the horizon, consistent w/ the most recent CPC temp outlooks. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Low clouds are seen in southern Missouri on satellite images roating around low pressure over the northeast U.S. These low clouds should make it into north Arkansas in the next couple of hours with MVFR conditions. The rest of the area should remain clear today with VFR conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 54 33 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 60 33 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 52 33 62 44 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 59 36 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 57 38 63 43 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 58 37 65 43 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 61 33 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 52 32 60 43 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 54 34 59 40 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 57 34 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 58 34 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 55 34 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 55 36 62 41 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ052>055-062- 063-066>068. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....72 AVIATION...51