192
FXUS64 KLZK 200706
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
206 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

-Cooler temperatures expected across the state today, but heat
 indices may climb above 100 across the southern half of the
 state.

-Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible ahead of
 a cold front today, generally across the southern half of the
 state.

-Temperatures will generally be near to below normal in the coming
 days with even cooler temperatures likely by next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

H500 ridge in place well west of the region with a few
disturbances moving south across the region in the northerly mid-
level flow. As a cold front progresses south of the state later
today, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon/evening. Coverage and intensity are
expected to be less than what occurred Tuesday afternoon. Before
the front clears the state, temperatures will easily warm along
and south of the I-40 corridor. While not as hot as Tuesday, it
may be sufficient enough to see heat indices climb above 100 in
some spots, especially across far southern AR.

Cooler temperatures and drier conditions will be seen in the
coming days across the state. An eastward extending axis off the
western US H500 ridge may briefly move over Arkansas on Saturday
which could provide a brief increase in temperatures. Temps may
briefly be above normal, but not as extreme as what had been
observed recently.

By Sunday things will change as a strong H500 cyclone is expected
to move east along the US/Canadian border to just north of the
Great Lakes and stall. This will suppress the western H500 ridge
much farther westward and provide troughing across much of the
eastern two thirds of the CONUS. At the sfc a cold front will push
through and sfc ridging will build in its wake. Sfc ridging will
be centered over the Northern Plains and extend well SE toward the
S/SE portions of the country. This will provide much cooler and
pleasant conditions for the state and surrounding areas, possibly
into early September. Highs next week are in the 70s/80s F along
with lows in the 50s/60s, quite unusual for late August across
Arkansas.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Some reduced cigs/vsby are possibly around daybreak, especially
across northern AR. Elsewhere, mainly VFR conditions expected. A
cold front will progress southward across the state today and
N-NE winds will slowly expand southward. Afternoon RA/TS activity
expected once again, but less coverage than Tuesday. Main focus
for precip this afternoon will be across the southern half of the
state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     93  69  91  65 /  30   0  10   0
Camden AR         96  71  93  68 /  60  20  10   0
Harrison AR       90  67  88  63 /  20   0  10   0
Hot Springs AR    95  71  94  70 /  40  10  10   0
Little Rock   AR  94  72  92  70 /  40  10  10   0
Monticello AR     97  73  94  69 /  50  20  10   0
Mount Ida AR      94  70  92  68 /  40  10  10   0
Mountain Home AR  92  68  90  64 /  20   0  10   0
Newport AR        91  69  89  67 /  30   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     96  70  93  67 /  40  20  10   0
Russellville AR   95  72  93  69 /  30  10  10   0
Searcy AR         94  70  92  67 /  30   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      95  71  92  68 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ031-032-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-
141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...67