005
FXUS64 KLZK 041955
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
255 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

+ It will remain warm and humid over the next 7 days, but for now,
the expectation is that is the heat and humidity will be fairly
typical of what we see in terms of early July heat across Arkansas
and no heat advisories are planned at this time.

+ Afternoon thunderstorms will be a threat each day over the next
7 days, but will become more common as we get into next work week.
No severe storms are expected, however it`s possible on any given
afternoon that a tall thunderstorm collapses and puts down some
strong winds in addition to the threat of heavy rainfall and cloud
to ground lightning that accompanies any storm.

Cavanaugh

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed a broad upper
level ridge over the central CONtinental United States (CONUS)
with upper level troughs anchoring either leg of the ridge over
the southwest and southeast CONUS. Within the base of the ridge
axis over south central Texas a massive release of latent heat
resulted in a large mesoscale vortex that essentially looks like a
mini-hurricane and was responsible for the catastrophic flooding
across the Guadalupe River overnight and this morning. Mesoscale
Convective Vortices (MCVs) are notorious for producing organized
clusters of flash flooding, so it is certainly worth watching the
feature closely to make sure it doesn`t head towards Arkansas here
over the next 24 hours. Thankfully it does appear to be drifting
slowly to the east at the time of this discussion which would keep
it safely south of the state if it remains on track. We`ll
continue to monitor it closely, but do not expect it to have a
major impact on Arkansas weather at this time.

Aside from water vapor satellite imagery, closer to home here in
Arkansas 2 PM temperatures were observed in the upper 80s to lower
90s across the state under partly cloudy skies. A few rain showers
had developed over west central and southwest portions of the
state, more or less on the periphery of the deeper moisture
corridor that extends over much of Texas into Oklahoma. This
deeper plume of moisture more or less extends along and west of a
line from Harrison to Little Rock back through Dumas. West of this
line additional showers and some isolated thunderstorms are likely
for the remainder of this afternoon into the evening, providing
some hit and miss precipitation that may interrupt evening holiday
festivities. The coverage of storms is expected to be limited
enough that most areas will remain dry, but if you are planning to
watch fireworks in the western part of the state, at least be
aware of the threat for showers and storms. To the east of the
aforementioned line, mid-level dry air resulted in less cloud
cover and these areas are much more likely to remain dry tonight.

For the upcoming weekend, a weakening upper level ridge will make
things a little bit warmer across the state, but only a degree or
two above today`s high temperatures. Afternoon showers and storms
will spread to include most of the state, but coverage is expected
to remain very limited while weak high pressure aloft persists.

As we head into the upcoming work week, the upper level ridge will
break down and more or less reorganize itself into two bits - one
over the southwest part of the CONUS, the other just off the
southeast coast of Georgia and the Carolinas. To the north, weak
upper level troughing will persist, but too far north to have a
direct impact on Arkansas, and to the south, a tropical upper
tropospheric trough (TUTT) will translate slowly westward over the
open waters of the Gulf. In between these features is where
Arkansas will reside in a saddle or col in the flow field aloft.
This saddle represents an axis of dilation for deformation aloft
which basically means that on a large and extremely slow scale,
air will slowly itself into place over Arkansas.

Because it`s summer and the air all around us is more or less the
same as the air already over the state, we won`t notice much in
the way of sensible weather changes in the week ahead. Highs will
remain in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s
each day. The thing that will change is the coverage of storms
next week compared to this weekend. The one thing that will tend
to pool up in the work week ahead is deeper moisture. There`s no
place for the moisture to go besides up and down as everything is
being slowly squeezed over the state, so daytime heating is
expected to result in more showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon as strong summer heating interacts with deep moisture
over the state.

In general wind shear remains extremely weak, so traditional
severe weather is not expected, however tall thunderstorms can
easily collapse and produce wind damage in the form of microbursts
any day in the week ahead. In addition, extremely slow moving
storms could promote excessive rainfall which could lead to at
least localized flooding. Flooding isn`t expected to become a
widespread hazard, but it is something we`ll have to monitor
daily.

While it`s too far out in the forecast to completely trust, longer
range model guidance is suggesting the possibility of a front
moving across Arkansas next weekend, so that may interrupt the
monotony of the forecast of the upcoming week a bit. Even if a
front passes through, it`s not like it`s going to get cold, but it
could shunt the deeper moisture away from the state leading to the
possibility for some lower humidity after the front passes.

Cavanaugh

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the 18Z TAFs...

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Any showers
and storms are generally expected to remain west of area TAF sites
this afternoon, but will have to watch Hot Springs and Arkadelphia
for any afternoon storms and amend TAFs as necessary to account
for nearby showers and storms that are likely to remain isolated
and short lived. Any showers and storms that develop are expected
to dissipate an hour or two after sunset. Winds are generally
expected to remain light and out of the south away from areas of
precipitation.

Cavanaugh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  94  73  93 /   0   0  10  30
Camden AR         73  96  73  97 /  10   0   0  20
Harrison AR       70  89  71  88 /   0  20  10  50
Hot Springs AR    73  95  74  95 /  10  10   0  30
Little Rock   AR  74  95  75  95 /   0   0   0  20
Monticello AR     74  96  75  96 /   0   0   0  20
Mount Ida AR      71  93  73  93 /   0  10   0  30
Mountain Home AR  70  90  71  89 /   0  20  10  60
Newport AR        72  94  74  95 /   0   0   0  20
Pine Bluff AR     73  95  75  95 /   0   0   0  20
Russellville AR   74  94  74  93 /   0  10  10  40
Searcy AR         71  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
Stuttgart AR      74  94  75  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LONG TERM...AVIATION...Cavanaugh