712
FXUS64 KLZK 292001
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
301 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

-Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm possible Monday
 afternoon through Tuesday as a frontal boundary moves south into
 Arkansas.

- Hot and humid conditions return for the latter part of the week
  into next weekend with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and
  heat indices of 100-109 possible.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Satellite this afternoon shows partly cloudy skies over the
Natural state with temperatures across the state in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. As we move into the late afternoon and evening
hours, an outflow boundary currently over southern Missouri will
move into northern Arkansas within the next couple of hours. Hi-
res CAMs over multiple runs has been consistent with the
development of isolated to scattered showers along and ahead of
this boundary. Have elected to keep chances for scattered showers
and thunderstorm through the late afternoon/early evening hours
across north and north central Arkansas. A few durinally driven
showers and storms are likely this afternoon across the rest of
Arkansas  before all activity dissipates within a hour or two
after sunset due to loss of daytime heating.

As we head into Monday, H500mb ridging over the south will help
temperatures warm  welll into the lower to mid 90s across a large
portions of Arkansas with heat indices in the 100-109 range over
portions of central, north central, eastern, southeast & southwest
Arkansas. A Heat Advisory has been issued to account for the hot
and humid conditions expected in the aforementioned areas. By
Monday afternoon, a cold front will dive southeast into portions
of central Missouri. Another round of diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms are in the forecast on Monday afternoon and evening
with the best chances over the northern half of Arkansas. A few
strong storms are possible with locally heavy rain, which could
lead to localized flash flooding, with sub severe hail and gusty
outflow winds possible on Monday afternoon and evening. By
Tuesday, the weak cold front will push into portions of northern
Arkansas. Models differ on how far south the cold front makes it
within Arkansas. The ECMWF solution brings the front as far south
as central Arkansas by Tuesday afternoon, then retreating
northeastward as a warm front by Wednesday through the state as
ridging along the northeast Texas coast builds northward into the
state. The GFS solution moves the weak front all the way through
the state by Tuesday afternoon with upper level ridging building
in from the west behind the front.


For Wednesday through next Sunday, upper level ridging along the
northeast Texas coast on Wednesday will slowly move northward to
far east Texas near the Louisiana border on Thursday. By Thursday
night into Friday,the upper level ridge axis will be over the
central part of the country and will promote hot and humid
conditions across the state from Wednesday through Sunday. A
shortwave trough will move across the central Plains on
Saturday in Sunday with an attendant weak cold front extending
south into the southern plains. The front will move into portions
of northwest Arkansas and combined with afternoon heating bring
isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms to a large portion
of the state on Sunday. A look at NBM 75th percentile for
temperatures shows in the lower to mid 90s through Friday, then
upper 90s next weekend. If forecast trends continue, heat
headlines may be needed at times during the Wednesday through
Sunday time frame.


.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Hi-res CAMs this afternoon  show scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing across far southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas and moving south through the evening hours across
central and portions of southern Arkansas through the evening
hours. MVFR and intermittent IFR and gusty outflow winds are
possible with TEMP groups up at KHRO and KBPK through 22z, then
around 02-06z at LIT and 05-07z at PBF as showers and
thunderstorms will weaken and eventually dissipate after sunset
due to the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, light S/SW winds
will prevail at all terminals with VFR conditions expected through
a majority of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74  91  73  90 /  20  60  40  20
Camden AR         74  95  72  92 /  10  30  30  40
Harrison AR       72  88  68  87 /  30  70  30  20
Hot Springs AR    75  93  73  91 /  10  50  40  40
Little Rock   AR  76  93  73  90 /  20  50  40  30
Monticello AR     76  93  75  90 /  10  40  40  50
Mount Ida AR      74  91  72  89 /  10  50  40  30
Mountain Home AR  71  89  70  88 /  30  70  30  20
Newport AR        75  93  74  91 /  20  60  40  20
Pine Bluff AR     75  93  73  89 /  20  50  40  40
Russellville AR   74  92  73  92 /  20  60  40  30
Searcy AR         73  93  73  90 /  20  60  30  30
Stuttgart AR      76  93  74  90 /  20  50  40  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for ARZ007-008-016-
017-025-032>034-042>047-053>057-062>069.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Kelly