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FXUS64 KLZK 141003
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
503 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

The main story of the short-term forecast discussion is going to be
the heat with temperatures in the realm of 10 to 15 degrees above
normal for mid-May.

As of 2 AM CDT, a warm front has been slowly moving northward across
the state and is draped along the I-40 corridor. The warm front is
progged to push completely through Arkansas by this evening.
Locations south of this boundary will note a transition to winds
that will be out of the south-southwest to southwest and ushering in
much warmer to borderline hot air at the surface that will be noted
both today and on Thursday, especially for high temperatures.

Originally, NBM deterministic guidance has been proposing values
well-below NBM probabilistic guidance. Opted to use the 75th
percentile for the Max T today which will put several locations in
potential record high temperature territory for this day. On
Thursday, a greater spread of probabilistic NBM temperatures were
noted, decided to take a conservative approach and stick between the
50th percentile and 75th percentile given the greater spread of
probabilistic values; however it will keep the forecast maximum
temperature on Thursday in the 90s over a large portion of the
state.

It will be necessary for today and again on Thursday to practice
heat safety by staying hydrated, limiting time outdoors during the
heating of the day, wearing light weight and light colored clothing,
and taking frequent breaks if you do work outdoors.

Into Thursday evening and Thursday night, a pattern change will
begin to take effect. Upper lvl ridging will continue to slide
eastward and southwesterly flow will be present over Arkansas. Also,
noted within this southwesterly flow will be a shortwave impulse
within the overall flow pattern. At the sfc, a cold front will
approach Arkansas from the northwest on Thursday and move into
northwestern Arkansas by Thursday night. The combination of upper
lvl and sfc features will lead to rain and isolated thunderstorm
chances across northern Arkansas. Any convection that does develop
is not anticipated to be severe as the convection is forecast to
remain elevated pertaining to the period from Thursday evening into
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

The long term PD wl usher in much more active weather for the FA as
a mean H500 troughing pattern ensues over the Cntrl US. Fri looks to
begin w/ a bout of severe weather potential over the lower to mid MS
River Valley. A seasonably warm and moist air mass, characterized by
temps in the upper 80s to low 90s, and sfc Td`s in the upper 60s to
low 70s, is progged to be in place over the Srn Cntrl US on Fri,
driven by multiple days of Srly flow and poleward moisture
transport.

Aloft, a fast moving jet streak is progged to traverse thru mean
S/Wrly flow, ejecting acrs the FA sometime Fri aftn to evng,
invigorating bulk shear and synoptic lift/H500 height falls atop the
aforementioned unstable airmass. Instability wl also be enhanced by
the presence of an EML, owing to strong low to mid-lvl SWrly flow,
where fcst pt soundings suggest peak MUCAPE values of 3500-4000
J/kg. As of now, the primary severe threats include large hail
(possibly significant hail two inches or greater), and damaging
thunderstorm wind gusts, w/ a semi-discrete storm mode transitioning
from multiple clusters of supercells to linear segments. Fcst DCAPE
values in excess of 1000 J/kg (owing to drier air loft) wl certainly
foster a greater damaging wind threat w/ cold pool mergers later on
in the evng. Nrn to NErn AR remains the favored region for severe
weather on Fri, w/ Cntrl to Srn AR still in question in terms of
afternoon CINH erosion and magnitude of synoptic forcing.

Thru the night Fri, a trailing cdfrnt fm an occluding Great Lakes
sfc low wl move into Nrn AR, lkly stalling by Sat mrng, and residing
as a stationary frnt thru the weekend. Additional bouts of rain and
thunderstorms are expected invof this frnt, including some locally
excessive rainfall (given the moist air mass in place), though the
exact footprint of where greater rainfall may occur wl depend on the
location of the frnt.

Temps thru the weekend wl stay elevated in the upper 80s,
accompanied by extremely muggy condns w/ sfc Td`s in the mid to
upper 60s, and low 70s in some locations.

Another bout of severe weather appears possible over the Srn Plains
during the Mon-Tues timeframe next week, w/ greater confidence of
local severe weather on Tues. Another trof is progged to dig into
the SWrn US, resulting in a highly amplified H500 flow pattern by
Mon. Deep layer moisture wl already be in place as sfc cyclogenesis
ensues over the Cntrl Plains. Some PoPs may spill over into the FA
on Mon, though for now, it appears the main axis of severe weather
should reside over OK. By Tues, there is some moderate agreement b/w
the latest deterministic GFS/ECMWF on the evolution of a fast moving
H500 jet streak, which is progged to eject acrs the FA, resulting in
a favorable overlap of shear and instability and general severe
storm timing. For now, all severe weather hazards, and some
excessive rainfall appear possible, and finer details should come to
fruition over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Expect VFR flight category for the duration of the forecast period
across all terminals with the exception of KBPK which may have
lowered CIGS to MVFR flight category this morning before returning
to VFR flight category by mid-day on Wednesday. Surface winds will
gust in excess of 22 knots across all terminals between late
Wednesday morning and Wednesday evening. Additionally, low-level
wind shear will impact all terminals during the late Wednesday
evening into the early morning hours on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  72  89  70 /  10  10  10  40
Camden AR         95  71  92  72 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       88  70  88  64 /  10   0  10  20
Hot Springs AR    95  72  92  71 /   0   0   0  20
Little Rock   AR  92  73  90  72 /   0  10   0  30
Monticello AR     94  71  92  74 /   0   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      95  72  91  70 /   0   0  10  20
Mountain Home AR  88  67  89  65 /  10  10  20  20
Newport AR        88  72  89  71 /  10  10  10  40
Pine Bluff AR     94  71  92  73 /   0  10   0  20
Russellville AR   93  71  91  69 /   0   0  10  30
Searcy AR         90  70  89  70 /  10   0   0  40
Stuttgart AR      92  72  90  74 /  10  10   0  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...74