295
FXUS64 KLZK 051715
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

-Warm and dry conditions will continue through the day today.

-More organized and widespread rain chances for much of the state
 will return through the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.

-A cold front is set to move through the region on Wednesday,
 tapering off rain chances and ushering in cooler and more
 seasonable conditions, with settled weather resuming through the
 end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Latest mesoanalysis depicted a prominent cosine wave H500 flow
pattern, w/ broad troughing acrs the Cont Divide, and ridging
centered over the Great Lakes to NErn US. Sfc high pressure that had
been rooted over the Ern US was also noted moving Ewrd into
Atlantic, w/ a fetch of Srly to SErly sfc flow positioned over the
Srn Cntrl US.

Thru the day today and into Mon, the upper flow pattern wl begin to
deamplify, w/ Wrn US troughing elongating and transitioning fm a
neutral to largely positive tilt, extending fm the Cont Divide to
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions. As H500 Swrly flow
overspreads the Cntrl US, low-lvl WAA and poleward moisture
transport wl ensue acrs the Srn Cntrl US, w/ dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s quickly advancing to at least the periphery of the Ozark
Plateau by Mon aftn.

A sfc pressure col is progged to set up fm SW to NE, extending fm
the OK/TX panhandle region to the Upper Midwest, as a surge of
continental sfc high pressure moves Swrd thru the Cntrl Plains, and
collides w/ lingering Atlantic sfc high pressure. This col feature,
or inverted sfc pressure trof, depending on the frame of reference,
wl lkly result in an axis of enhanced QPF during the Mon to Tues
timeframe, and as of now, is expected to reside well north of the
FA.

However, higher Chc PoPs are still expected acrs much of the FA
beginning on Mon due to aforementioned WAA/isentropic ascent and
asctd incrsg moisture transport. Greater confidence of higher QPF
currently lies acrs the Ern half of the state on Mon, and
particularly NErn AR, which should be good news for most w/
potential drought relief on the way.

Rain chcs wl continue thru Tues over much of the FA, w/ the Cntrl
Plains sfc high pressure eventually winning out and moving further
Swrd as it gains more upper level support fm a pivoting vorticity
max embedded w/in the mean flow. Tues night and into Wed, a cdfrnt
along the leading edge of this sfc high pressure wl advance Swrd
into the Ozarks, and then shift Ewrd, w/ the Great Lakes once again
under broad high pressure.

In the wake of the frnt, which looks to shift towards a "back-door"
frnt signal as sfc high pressure settles to the east, NErly sfc
winds wl prevail thru at least the end of the week, ushering in
cooler and drier air over the Natural State and settled wx condns
prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Calm and dry conditions are expected under mostly sunny skies
through the afternoon and evenings. This will lead to widespread
VFR conditions through at least the overnight hours. A pattern
change is expected overnight, however, leading to increase cloud
cover and chances of rain by the morning hours across southern and
central Arkasnas. MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible with
showers late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     64  79  65  82 /  20  60  60  50
Camden AR         67  81  67  84 /  30  70  40  50
Harrison AR       61  80  63  80 /  10  40  30  30
Hot Springs AR    66  81  67  83 /  20  50  40  40
Little Rock   AR  68  79  68  82 /  20  60  50  40
Monticello AR     69  83  69  .AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

No sig changes to note in the new TAF PD...Expect VFR condns acrs
the FA thru much of the PD. E-SErly winds wl prevail thru the
day, w/ incrsg mid lvl cloud cover acrs the Srn half of the state.
Late in the PD, near 12Z Mon mrng, lower cloud cover wl be incrsg
acrs SErn AR, but have withheld mentions of MVFR CIGs for now...

&&86 /  30  70  50  50
Mount Ida AR      65  81  66  84 /  10  50  30  40
Mountain Home AR  63  81  65  81 /  10  40  40  30
Newport AR        67  79  68  82 /  30  70  60  60
Pine Bluff AR     68  82  67  84 /  20  60  50  50
Russellville AR   66  83  67  86 /  10  40  30  30
Searcy AR         67  79  67  82 /  30  60  50  50
Stuttgart AR      69  81  69  82 /  30  60  50  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...73