187
FXUS64 KLZK 222358
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
558 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

The area finally is starting to recover from the arctic air and
winter weather that moved in this week with highs in the 40s
currently throughout the area. This may cause some additional
melting of ice/snow and create one more morning of possible black
ice on the roads. This warming trend will be the main weather
factor over the next week outside of a few quick moving systems
pushing through tomorrow and Wednesday.

As the surface high pressure moves off to the east we will have a
quick moving shortwave trough push through the area on Sunday. The
area is not expecting many impacts except for rain showers moving
over southern AR in the afternoon with less than 0.1" of rainfall
expected. The backside of this shortwave trough is when the
pattern will start to change drastically as large scale ridging
moves into the region. The main impact of this ridge will be a
rapid increase in temperatures starting Monday. Expect most the
area to be in the 60s Monday and 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. This
will be 15-20F degrees above normal for this time of year, so
enjoy the warmer temperatures with 40 degree dewpoints while they
last!

The upper level ridging will start to flatten out as a shortwave
trough pushes to the Northern Plains Wednesday night. This will
result in a frontal passage for AR Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning. A lack of moisture along this cold front will limit any
precipitation, but some scattered showers are possible with light
rainfall accumulations. The severe weather potential appears low
with little CAPE available. There will be a drop in temperature
back down closer to normal with high 50s into the lower 60s and a
brisk wind from the north, so it may feel relatively cool
compared to Tue and Wed. Ridging and drier weather move in behind
this feature leaving the area near normal or slightly above for
temperatures going into the late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

High pressure over the area now, will shift to the east on Sunday.
Low pressure will slide along the Gulf of America coast and bring
moisture and cloud cover into at least southern Arkansas. Included
VCSH at ADF and LLQ on Sunday. VFR conditions will continue
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     24  54  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         28  54  30  65 /   0  20   0   0
Harrison AR       24  55  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    27  54  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  26  54  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     30  53  33  62 /   0  20   0   0
Mount Ida AR      26  58  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  22  54  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        24  49  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     28  53  32  63 /   0  10   0   0
Russellville AR   25  56  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         23  52  27  62 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      28  51  32  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...51