410
FXUS64 KLZK 121811
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
Issued by National Weather Service Memphis TN
111 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

-A couple of thunderstorm complexes will continue to move into
 Arkansas from northwest and take a southeast track through the
 state this afternoon and evening. A few strong storms will be
 capable of producing damaging wind gusts along with large hail.

-A strong upper level high pressure system will build back over
 Arkansas and southern CONUS Sunday through at least the middle
 of next week leading to additional hot weather, dry conditions,
 and heat advisories.

-A Heat Advisory has been issued for Sunday a large portion of
 Arkansas for dangerous heat index values expected between 105 and
 110 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Several moving parts in play this afternoon across the Lower
Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains. The latest GOES East
Water Vapor Imagery reveals a shortwave trough exiting to the
east over the Tennessee Valley with northwest flow in place
across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Several
perturbations within the mean NW flow are aiding in the
development of clusters of thunderstorms this afternoon. A few
notable areas of convection include NW Arkansas, Eastern Oklahoma,
and SW Missouri, where clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms
are already ongoing. All 3 of these areas of convection have the
potential to impact Arkansas over the next 8 to 10 hours. It
should be noted that nearly all hi-res model guidance is
struggling mightily to resolve any of the current activity out
there, so forecast confidence is based mainly on observations and
forecaster experience.

The latest mesoanalysis data reveals 2000 to 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE
across the majority of Arkansas with 20 to 30 knots of bulk shear
in place as well. Although northern and western portions of
Arkansas are capped at this hour, the inversion will likely mix
out over the next 1 to 2 hours with daytime heating. With the
combination of shear and instability in place, there is at least a
medium chance of a few strong to severe thunderstorms with
damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats.

The threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will wane late
tonight as upper level heights quickly build in from the
west and steering flow pushes any meso-convective activity up
into southern Missouri. Any locations that receive meaningful
rainfall will have the potential for fog Sunday morning as winds
go nearly calm areawide, but widespread dense fog is not
anticipated. Skies will clear rather quickly Sunday morning as a
594 dam ridge builds in from the west. Air temperatures will
rebound quickly into the upper 90s and near 100 degrees tomorrow
afternoon. These hot temperatures coupled with high humidity,
will result in a large portion of the state seeing heat indices
soar between 105 and 110 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been issued
for Sunday for the dangerous heat.

The subtropical ridge will expand and amplify through at least
midweek, approaching the 99th percentile for 500mb heights. This
will translate to hot and dry conditions and potentially record-
breaking high temperatures by midweek. LREF guidance is hinting at
a frontal passage next weekend, which could curb heat and bring
the return of meaningful rainfall to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A couple of TSRA complexes will pivot through the airspace this
afternoon and early evening. Although coverage will remain largely
scattered, VCTS was carried at nearly every site, with a PROB30
added for the site for highest confidence on TSRA. Winds will
remain westerly, outside of TSRAs, and become light and variable
overnight. Although the threat of fog has not been added to any
individual site, any locations that receive SHRAs or TSRAs will
see increased chances of MVFR VSBYS for an hour or two near
daybreak. Convective coverage will be very low on Sunday as upper
level high pressure builds in across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR    MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Camden AR        MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Harrison AR      MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Hot Springs AR   MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Little Rock   AR MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Monticello AR    MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Mount Ida AR     MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Mountain Home AR MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Newport AR       MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Pine Bluff AR    MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Russellville AR  MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Searcy AR        MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Stuttgart AR     MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ007-008-016-
017-025-031>034-039-042>047-053>057-062>069-130-137-138-141-230-
237-238-241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99