954
FXUS64 KLZK 042339
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
639 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- A few scattered PM showers are possible over the next couple days;
  Rainfall should not amount to much in any particular location

- Heat Advisories in effect for portions of the state through Sunday

- Upper level ridge ensures hot/dry conds persist the next seven days

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Summer-like pattern set to continue across AR beneath an elongated
upper ridge. This persistent ridge has brought above average temps
and below average precip to many locations over the past several
weeks. There are some winners in regards to August monthly precip,
but that does not speak for the majority of the state which ended up
at varying degrees of below average monthly/seasonal rainfall.

A few stray showers will be possible over Srn AR Friday
afternoon/early evening as weak upper level energy moves E to W
around the Srn periphery of the ridge. Additional stray scattered
showers will be possible Saturday afternoon/early evening for the
same reason/location as described on Friday. These times of day are
favored due to peak heating coupled with maximum instability.
Lastly, some showers will be possible on Sunday afternoon/evening
associated with backdoor cold front pushing in from the OH Valley
but keep in mind that the large scale pattern will work to inhibit
convection. All of these precip chances are <20% with little to
no appreciable rainfall expected in an particular location. This
is pretty much it as for rain chances over the next week, perhaps
even longer based on long range ensemble guidance.

The upper ridge is progged to strengthen heading through the
weekend, increasing large scale forcing for subsidence over the Srn
MS Valley. This will work against PoP development through much of
next week. As the ridge intensifies, temps are expected to climb
into the upper 90s to >100 degrees. Heat index values should range
from 100-110 most afternoons. Given this, a heat advisory is in
effect through Sunday evening for the AR River Valley, Cntrl AR, and
much of Ern AR where apparent T`s near or greater than 105 overlap
with Major to Extreme Heat Risk. A brief reprieve from heat index
values is looking more likely on Monday and some of Tuesday with the
arrival of NE surface winds behind a weak frontal boundary. Relief
should be temporary as winds switch to the S/SW late Tuesday into
Wednesday with the retreat of aforementioned front.

Outdoor burning is highly discouraged across the state with all
counties now highlighted by "high" wildfire danger. Burn bans occupy
all but 6 of 75 AR counties. These 6 counties were mainly confined
to N-Cntrl into Cntrl AR where some beneficial rainfall occurred in
the last one to two weeks. With little to no appreciable rainfall in
the forecast, decreasing soil moisture/plant moisture will worsen
drought conditions and increase the statewide wildfire threat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate through the
period with a continuation of hot and dry conditions. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms can not be completely ruled out but the
chances are to small to include in any specific TAF. Winds will
continue to be light and from the south to southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR    101  77 104  77 /  10   0  10   0
Camden AR         97  73  99  73 /  10   0  10  10
Harrison AR       96  75  98  74 /   0   0  10  10
Hot Springs AR    99  76 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  99  78 102  79 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     96  75  98  76 /  10   0  10  10
Mount Ida AR      98  73 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  97  74  99  74 /   0   0  10  10
Newport AR        99  77 100  77 /   0   0  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     97  75 100  75 /  10   0   0  10
Russellville AR   99  76 102  76 /   0   0  10   0
Searcy AR         99  76 101  76 /   0   0  10   0
Stuttgart AR      99  77 101  77 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ007-008-016-017-025-
031>034-039-042>047-054>057-064-065-069-121-122-130-137-138-230-
237-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56