780
FXUS64 KLZK 112310
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
510 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

-Widespread freezing conditions Tuesday morning.

-Gusty southwest winds expected through the day Tuesday, with
 sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph, and gusts in excess of 30 to 35
 mph.

-Mainly dry and warming conditions will persist through the week,
 with temperatures moderating back to the mid 70s by Friday.

-Rain chances could return to the forecast area by the weekend and
 into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

08Z sfc obs showed area temps in the mid 20s to low 30s, with
another widespread freeze underway. This wl be the last night of
freezing temps thru the remainder of the fcst PD, as daily temp
trends moderate upwards the next several days.

Thru the day today, SWrly winds wl resume, w/ temps quickly warming
into the low 60s. Of note, wl be a strong sfc pres gradient moving
acrs the state, and driving turbulent condns, w/ fcst winds of 20
to 25 mph, and gusts near 30 to 35 mph, particularly over the MS
River Delta region and NErn AR. Have gone forward with a Wind
Advisory for portions of NErn AR this afternoon as such.

For the remainder of the week, warming daily temps and dry/settled
wx condns are fcst, w/ mean Ern US troughing and Wrn US ridging
keeping upper-lvl subsidence in place over the Srn Cntrl US. A pattern
change is still possible by the weekend, w/ Chc PoPs returning to
the fcst as early as Sun, though better widespread chances are now
more prevalent during the Mon-Tues timeframe.

Uncertainties remain in the extended term, with dProg/dT`s of
H500 flow largely variable during the Sun-Tues timeframe. As is
now being advertised by the latest runs of deterministic GFS/ECMWF
guidance, fcst H500 troughing moving acrs the Cntrl US is now more
lagged...previously through the Sat-Sun timeframe...and is now
w/in the Mon-Tues timeframe. W/ mean low-lvl Srly flow, modest
moisture return is still expected prior to the arrival of the
aforementioned trof. More widespread and higher Chc PoPs are
included for much of the state thru Mon-Tues of next week,
including some thunderstorms. However, greater details on any
hazardous weather potential remains uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Expect VFR flight category across all terminals for the entire
duration of the TAF forecast period from Tuesday evening through
Wednesday evening. Expect a few terminals to hold onto intermittent
surface wind gusts for the first few hours of the forecast on
Tuesday evening in excess of 20 knots, these have been outlined by
the use of TEMPO groups. Low level wind shear will be likely across
all terminals from the beginning of the forecast period on Tuesday
evening through early Wednesday morning around sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     41  70  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         44  71  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       41  69  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    41  70  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  44  69  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     46  72  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      43  72  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  38  69  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        41  69  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     44  70  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   39  71  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         39  69  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      43  68  46  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017-
025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74