Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
252 FXUS64 KLZK 071742 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1242 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 -A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible across the state through tonight. -Cooler temperatures and much drier air will be seen in the coming days. -Above normal temperatures are expected by this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 As of 2 AM CDT, light to moderate rain continues to fall across portions of northeastern Arkansas associated with a sfc low pressure system that is positioned over the Mid-South region of the CONUS. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT: An upper lvl broad, positively-tilted trof over the northern Plains region of the CONUS combined with an inverted trof of low pressure at the sfc will advect moist southerly to southeasterly flow into Arkansas. The moisture influx, combined with isentropic ascent will assist in the potential for scattered showers and storms, especially across the eastern half of Arkansas. A potential for local heavy rainfall does exist (similar to Sunday) as a modest 850 mb low-level jet develops over the Mid-South region of the CONUS. The presence of the development of this 850 mb low-level jet may lead to a few maxima or enhanced rainfall totals that near a half inch of rainfall with an outlier chance a few locations approach and/or exceed 1 inch of total rainfall today across eastern Arkansas, but confidence is low. Expect temperatures to remain above normal by 5 to 8 degrees overall as a cold front will begin to move across the state today from northwest to southeast, but the drier and cooler airmass will not be felt at the sfc until Wednesday across Arkansas. WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY: The airmass behind the FROPA will be cooler and drier which will bring temperatures overall to average for this time of the year across the Natural State. The sfc high pressure center will shift into the Great Lakes region of the CONUS which will lead to northeasterly sfc winds for the middle and later portion of the work week. Expect plentiful amounts of sunshine with fair weather conditions overall. The next opportunity for precipitation does appear to be on the horizon for the state of next week; however this far out model confidence is low overall and cohesion between models does not exist at the moment. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 A few showers/storms are possible through 08/06z but coverage will remain very limited and there is a low probability that precip will be seen at area terminals. In the wake of a cold front moving SE across the state, sfc winds will become NW-NE through Wednesday. Sustained winds of 5-10 kts can be expected with occasional gusts above 15 kts at times. Cigs will vary, but will largely be between MVFR/IFR through 08/18z. There could be a few terminals that see FG development early Wednesday morning as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 61 77 50 75 / 20 0 0 0 Camden AR 65 81 56 78 / 10 10 0 0 Harrison AR 56 74 49 73 / 10 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 65 78 55 77 / 10 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 66 77 55 75 / 10 10 0 0 Monticello AR 66 82 57 78 / 10 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 63 79 54 78 / 10 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 58 76 50 74 / 10 0 0 0 Newport AR 64 77 51 75 / 30 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 66 79 54 76 / 10 10 0 0 Russellville AR 64 80 55 79 / 10 10 0 0 Searcy AR 64 78 52 75 / 30 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 66 78 54 75 / 10 10 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...67 DISCUSSION...74 AVIATION...67