486
FXUS64 KLZK 111034 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
534 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Mainly quiet conditions are ongoing across the Natural State early
this Mon morning...with a mostly clear sky and temps in the upper
60s to upper 70s noted for most areas. Regional radar imagery shows
some scattered convection over SWRN MO into NERN OK and SERN
KS...which was generally drifting EWD over time. However...an
outflow over SWRN MO was dropping SE into NWRN AR early this
morning...which may trigger some new convection behind this outflow.
As a result...have mentioned POPS across NWRN/NRN sections this
morning.

For the rest of this Mon...will see some continued potential for
convection into the afternoon hrs...depending on where this morning
outflow will end up. This remnant outflow will be the where the area
of best potential for convection will exist this afternoon...but do
think that some isolated afternoon convection will also be possible
pretty much anywhere else as well. As a result...have low end POPs
mentioned for most areas this afternoon...with a bit higher POPs
further NW where the outflow may remain.

An upper trough will move east over the the NRN CONUS through the
middle of the week...with AR remaining on the SRN periphery of this
trough. The main upper ridging will remain across the WRN
CONUS...keeping the extensive oppressive heat at bay for now. The
chances for isolated to scattered afternoon pulse convection will
increase with the lowered heights aloft into the middle of the
week...with best chances around Wed. These chances for convection
will slowly decrease by late this week into the weekend as ridging
attempts to re-establish itself across portions of the region.
However...this ridging trend is a bit uncertain with differing med-
range model guidance. As a result...keep at least some mention of
afternoon convection each day into the weekend.

Temps through the period will slowly fall into the middle of the
week...though remaining around normal for highs each day. The
lowering temps over time will primarily be due to the increased
coverage of afternoon convection. By later in the week...expect
highs to warm slowly as the potential for convection decreases with
the influence of upper ridging increasing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Expect dominant VFR conditions to persist through this TAF period.
Some isolated convection will be possible this afternoon...but
coverage too limited and location too uncertain to mentioned for
most terminals at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     94  72  93  72 /  10  10  30  20
Camden AR         93  72  93  72 /  20  10  40  10
Harrison AR       90  69  88  69 /  30  20  50  20
Hot Springs AR    95  73  94  73 /  20  10  40  10
Little Rock   AR  93  74  91  74 /  10  10  30  10
Monticello AR     94  74  93  74 /  20  10  40  10
Mount Ida AR      94  71  93  71 /  20  10  40  10
Mountain Home AR  92  71  91  69 /  20  10  40  20
Newport AR        93  73  93  74 /  10  10  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     93  73  92  73 /  20  10  30  10
Russellville AR   96  74  95  74 /  10  10  30  20
Searcy AR         94  72  93  72 /  10  10  30  10
Stuttgart AR      93  74  93  74 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...62