283
FXUS64 KLZK 132348
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
648 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

-Daily rain chances will persist through late week, providing
 localized relief from short term rainfall deficits.

-Near normal temperatures will be seen through Wed/Thu before
 increasing to well above normal values for the weekend into next
 week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Main interest in the short term revolves around the slow moving
H500 trough progressing east across the region. This feature has
kept and will continue to keep ridging at bay to the SE and SW. As
several disturbances lift northeast through the trough, isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
especially during the afternoon/evening hours. Some precip may
persist into the overnight hours as lingering/remnant boundaries
aid in precip longevity.

With the overall flow remaining light and PW values in the
1.50-2.00 inch range or higher, some locally heavy downpours can
be expected. Coverage overall should remain limited, which will do
little to improve shortfall rainfall deficits. But, some areas
will receive locally beneficial rainfall.

By late week into the weekend, the mid-level trough will be well
east of the region. In its wake, H500 ridging will become
reestablished across much of the central/southern US. This will
allow temperatures to climb and rain chances to decrease across
Arkansas and surrounding areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Showers and thunderstorms prevalent across the state this
afternoon have now weakened. All terminals are currently seeing
VFR conditions across the state and this is forecast to continue
through the TAF period. Winds will remain light and some models
were hinting at some very light fog in the morning. Am somewhat
skeptical about it at this point, but will be continue to be
monitored in future forecast updates. Models are hinting at
diurnal convection again on Thursday afternoon, but coverage is
forecast to be significantly less than what was seen
today...therefore held off any mention of precipitation at this
time.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     71  94  72  96 /  10  20  10  20
Camden AR         72  95  72  94 /  20  40  10  40
Harrison AR       69  92  70  93 /   0  20  10  20
Hot Springs AR    73  96  73  96 /  10  30  10  40
Little Rock   AR  74  94  75  94 /  10  30  10  30
Monticello AR     74  95  74  95 /  20  40  10  40
Mount Ida AR      71  95  72  94 /  10  30  10  30
Mountain Home AR  69  93  71  95 /  10  10  10  20
Newport AR        72  95  73  96 /  10  20  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     73  95  73  95 /  20  30  10  30
Russellville AR   73  97  74  97 /  10  20  10  20
Searcy AR         72  95  72  96 /  20  20  10  20
Stuttgart AR      74  94  74  95 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...65