464
FXUS64 KLZK 062311
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
611 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

-Above normal temperatures and increased humidity are expected
across much of the state through the weekend. Temperatures will
hovering at or around normal by early next week.

-Frequent chances for rain and thunderstorms with a few strong to
severe thunderstorms possible between Friday Night and Monday as a
progressive pattern continues.

-Locally heavy rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches possible
across portions of Arkansas through Monday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

THIS EVENING/SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY:

A tandem of upper lvl disturbances and sfc features will result in a
continued unsettled pattern of weather across Arkansas. In the upper
lvls through the weekend, zonal flow will reside over Arkansas with
embedded shortwaves within the overall H500 flow pattern. An
elongated area of ridging will be positioned over southern Texas and
northern Mexico through Sunday before this upper lvl feature begins
to retrograde back to the west and a closed low over south-central
Canada dives down into the Great Lakes region of the CONUS. At the
sfc, a stationary boundary will meander between northern Arkansas
and southern Missouri through Sunday. Into Sunday and Monday a cold
front will sweep into Arkansas from the northwest, but will become
stationary across the central portion of the state.

Expect a progressive period of rain and thunderstorm activity across
the CWA and state of Arkansas. Several rounds of strong to severe
thunderstorms will be likely over this period as a series of
thunderstorm complexes will move across the state. The Storm
Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5)
across much of the CWA and state of Arkansas for the remainder of
Friday and on each subsequent day: Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/NEXT FRIDAY:

In the upper lvls, the combination of a ridge with a closed low
within the base of a trof will move in close proximity of the
Natural State on Thursday. At the sfc, a stationary front will move
into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. This sfc feature will
retreat back northward as a warm front into Thursday and Next
Friday.

Expect POPs to be highest across central and southern Arkansas on
Tuesday and Wednesday before rain and thunderstorm chances return to
the majority of the state to close out the forecast period from
Thursday into Next Friday. It remains too far in advance to bolt
down any specifics regarding the possibility of severe weather,
location, timing, and hazards; however, this will be ironed out over
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

VFR flight category will be present at all terminals to begin the
forecast period on Friday evening. Flight category will become
degraded overnight into the early morning hours on Saturday lasting
until Saturday afternoon with northern terminals dropping CIGS to as
low as IFR early Saturday morning along with a complex of shower and
thunderstorms that will drop VSBY to MVFR flight category with
intermittent IFR. Degraded flight category will move from northern
terminals southward to impact central terminals by sunrise on
Saturday to southern terminals by mid-day on Saturday. Surface winds
for the first couple hours of the forecast period may gust in excess
of 20 knots across most terminals. Surface winds will remain
variable with the stationary front meandering across Arkansas
through most of the period before becoming re-established on
Saturday afternoon. VFR flight category will return to all sites by
Saturday late afternoon. Improvement will be noted to VFR flight
category from northerly to southerly terminals throughout the day on
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  86  67  87 /  50  90  40  10
Camden AR         73  92  70  90 /  10  20  60  30
Harrison AR       67  82  63  85 /  60  90  20   0
Hot Springs AR    71  90  68  90 /  20  40  50  10
Little Rock   AR  73  90  71  89 /  30  60  50  10
Monticello AR     75  93  72  90 /  10  30  60  50
Mount Ida AR      72  91  67  91 /  20  50  50  10
Mountain Home AR  67  83  63  85 /  60  90  20  10
Newport AR        70  87  68  87 /  50  80  40  10
Pine Bluff AR     73  91  71  89 /  20  40  70  20
Russellville AR   72  88  67  89 /  40  80  30  10
Searcy AR         70  89  68  88 /  40  70  40  10
Stuttgart AR      73  89  72  88 /  30  50  70  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74