059
FXUS64 KLZK 110457
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1157 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

-Slightly cooler temperatures expected across northern Arkansas
 over the next few days

-Coverage of showers and storms will increase from north to south
 through Friday as a front moves across the state

-A few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon and
 evening, mainly across the northern half of Arkansas

-An upper level ridge becomes re-established over Arkansas next
 week leading to additional hot weather with occasional chances
 for showers and thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

As of 2 AM CDT, latest regional reflectivity depicts a scattered
complex of thunderstorms extending from north-central Oklahoma to
southeastern Kansas to central Missouri. This complex of
thunderstorms will continue to track east-southeastward overall
ahead of an advancing cold front.

Current CAMS trajectory has a complex of shower and thunderstorm
activity progged to begin impacting northern Arkansas by midday. In
locations in which cloud cover and/or rain cooled air has reached a
location, a noted decrease in high temperatures will be noted across
portions of northern Arkansas; however in locations where storms are
not anticipated until later in the day, high temperatures will once
again peak in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat index values
across portions of central and eastern Arkansas are expected to
reach between 105 and 109 degrees warranting the issuance of a Heat
Advisory.

A Marginal Risk of severe weather will be present between this
afternoon and into the evening hours across the northwestern half of
Arkansas. A moderately unstable airmass with MLCAPE between 1,500
and 2,500 J/kg via daytime heating may yield a few instances of
severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts.

Chances for additional rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible
on Friday as the cold front is expected to stall as a stationary
front near the Arkansas/Louisiana border.

Rainfall totals over this two-day period look to favor much of
northern Arkansas and parts of western Arkansas per the latest suite
of 00Z guidance. Expect scattered areas to over-perform and under-
preform across the state depending on where the strongest or most
efficient rain-producing convection sets up.

Into the latter portion of the weekend and early next week, the
upper level ridge will build back over Arkansas, but quickly by mid-
week move eastward over the Southeastern region of the CONUS by an
approaching series of shortwaves over Arkansas via northwesterly
flow which will increase PoP chances and end triple digit
temperatures across the state over this period bringing a bout of
relief that will hopefully stick around beyond the forecast period
of mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Expect lowered flight category over the forecast period across all
TAF sites as low as MVFR and IFR flight category for lowered CIGS
and VSBY. Lowered CIGS and scattered SHRA/TSRA continues to move
across northern sites and will expand southward over the forecast
period impacting central sites early Friday morning, and
southeastern sites by Friday later morning. All sites are expected
to return to VFR flight category later Friday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     97  70  90  70 /  70  90  80  10
Camden AR         99  71  95  70 /  10  10  40  10
Harrison AR       89  68  85  68 /  70  70  50  20
Hot Springs AR    98  72  91  70 /  20  60  80  10
Little Rock   AR  98  73  92  73 /  30  50  70  20
Monticello AR     96  74  95  72 /   0   0  50  20
Mount Ida AR      98  69  90  67 /  30  80  80  10
Mountain Home AR  93  68  85  67 /  60  60  70  10
Newport AR        95  71  91  71 /  50  70  60  20
Pine Bluff AR     97  72  94  70 /  10  10  50  20
Russellville AR   99  70  89  70 /  60  90  80  20
Searcy AR         97  71  91  70 /  30  70  70  10
Stuttgart AR      98  73  95  73 /  20  30  60  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74