275
FXUS64 KLZK 011100 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
600 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

+ Much of Arkansas will see a reprieve from the heat through at
least Thursday as cooler air from the north works its way across
the state on Tuesday.

+ Isolated to scattered storms will be possible across central to
southeastern Arkansas Tuesday afternoon to evening, with a
conditional threat for severe weather, including strong wind gusts
and some hail.

+ Heat and humidity are expected to return by next weekend. Along
with heat, more widespread rain chances appear possible, and may
offset a more prolific heat threat, but uncertainties remain for
now.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Latest objective and subjective analysis data indicated a synoptic
frnt was draped fm S/W to N/E acrs the Cntrl third of AR, which has
lkly been reinforced by an antecedent outflow bndry fm Sun night.
This frnt wl be the main talking point for the FA the next few days,
as those who reside to the north wl see more pleasant humidity
levels amidst drier air, e.g., sfc dewpoint values in the mid to
upper 60s. While to the south of the frnt, the status quo wl lkly
remain, w/ dewpoints lingering in the low to mid 70s, along side
aftn high temps in the low 90s.

Despite the separation of air masses, much of the state wl see a
reprieve from hazardous heat the next few days, as afternoon heat
index values only top the upper 90s. Some additional development of
thunderstorms acrs Cntrl to SErn AR wl be possible later Tues aftn
to evng, lkly focused along a residual outflow bndry recently
analyzed on mosaic radar imgry.

Thru the next few days, sfc high pressure wl expand acrs much of the
Srn US under amplifying H500 ridging. Settled wx condns are expected
to prevail, w/ rain chcs remaining limited until next weekend. The
aforementioned cooldown wl be brief though, w/ temps trending
upwards towards the mid to upper 90s by Thurs to Fri. Along w/
incrsg temps, PoPs wl incrs as well ahead of another weak cdfrnt,
progged to move into the Ozark Plateau thru the weekend. Confidence
on rain chcs remains highest towards the end of the weekend thru the
Sun-Mon timeframe. Even w/ rain chcs near the end of the PD, heat
headlines may be needed again w/ heat index values climbing to 105
degrees acrs Cntrl to Ern AR by next Sun aftn.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

BKN to OVC cloud cover was noted over much of the FA, w/ some MVFR
CIGs noted acrs Nrn to NWrn AR. Expect these condns to improve
over the next few hours, w/ VFR condns prevailing thru the day
Tues. Some VCSH wl be possible over Cntrl to SErn AR, and have
maintained precip mentions at corresponding terminals. Winds wl
generally be light and variable invof a stalled sfc frnt
positioned acrs the state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  68  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         93  71  93  71 /  20   0  10   0
Harrison AR       86  65  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    92  71  93  71 /  10   0  10   0
Little Rock   AR  91  72  92  73 /  10   0  10   0
Monticello AR     92  73  92  72 /  30   0  10   0
Mount Ida AR      90  70  91  71 /  10   0  10   0
Mountain Home AR  87  65  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        89  70  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     90  71  91  71 /  20   0  10   0
Russellville AR   91  70  91  71 /   0   0  10   0
Searcy AR         90  69  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      89  72  90  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72