725
FXUS64 KLZK 121156
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
556 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 336 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Southwest flow will be over Arkansas to begin the long term period
with an upper trough in the northwest U.S. This upper trough moves
into the Plains tonight and into the Great Lakes Thursday. Zonal
flow returns to Arkansas Thursday afternoon.

Light to moderate rain continues this morning in southeast Arkansas
north of the warm front in Louisiana. An inverted trough will move
through Arkansas today and will keep low clouds and rain across the
area. Some light freezing rain is expected in the higher elevations
of northwest Arkansas this morning before warming above freezing. A
Winter Weather Advisory continues for this area through noon. Rain
chances will end west to east during the afternoon. High pressure
moves into the area tonight and Thursday. This high will bring
colder temperatures tonight. Lows tonight will be in the teens to
mid 30s. Below normal temperatures continue on Thursday and Thursday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

In the upper lvls, a digging trof will be positioned over the
Western region of the CONUS and is progged to move into the Southern
Plains region of the CONUS by Tuesday. In response, flow over
Arkansas will begin out of the west-southwest before becoming
southwesterly as the trof approaches the state.

At the sfc, the combination of two different boundaries will be the
harbinger of two different types of weather. A cold front will
approach the state from the northwest and begin moving across the
state on Sunday afternoon from northwest to southeast. In tandem, a
sfc low pressure center will be positioned across far northeastern
Texas with an attendant warm front extending eastward across
southern Arkansas. The counter-clockwise flow around the sfc low
pressure center will advect a plentiful amount of gulf moisture into
the state.

Expect rain and a few isolated thunderstorms to begin across the
state on Friday afternoon into Friday night. On Saturday, rain will
continue statewide and a conditional threat for a few strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern half of
the state going into Saturday afternoon through Saturday night,
especially locations along and south of the warm front as the
boundary advances northward throughout the day. Into the early
morning hours on Sunday (post midnight to near sunrise), a low end
chance for a mixture of wintry precipitation will be possible as the
colder airmass trailing the cold front moves into the state and some
post-frontal moisture may lead to a brief period of light snow and
light freezing rain across portions of northern, central,
northeastern, and east-central Arkansas. Any accumulations that do
occur will be a trace amount to as much as only a tenth of an inch
in locations that do see any wintry precipitation as the atmosphere
will be moisture-starved behind the cold front with a drier airmass
beginning to overtake the state.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT:

In the upper lvls, the trof progresses quickly east away from the
state as flow over Arkansas becomes northwesterly to zonal over this
period. At the sfc, a region of high pressure will be moving into
the region ushering in a much colder and drier airmass into
Arkansas.

Expect fair weather conditions over this period with much colder
temperatures overall moving into the state which will be around 10
degrees colder than average compared to normal values for mid
February with respect to both low and high temperatures.

TUESDAY:

In the upper lvls, a positively tilted trof extending from the Four
Corners region of the CONUS to over the Northern Plains region of
the CONUS will be nearing the Natural State with flow over Arkansas
remaining mostly zonal.

At the sfc, a stationary boundary is progged to be located along the
Arkansas/Missouri border with a sfc low pressure center in northern
Texas that will allow for gulf moisture to be advected into the
state.

Expect during the day on Tuesday for rain to begin across western
Arkansas and transition into snow as colder air begins to dive
further into Arkansas. Snow will become the dominant precipitation
type across the state beginning across the north portion of Arkansas
and following the trend of a deep layer of colder air into the
central region of Arkansas later into the day on Tuesday. At the
current time, signals do exist for a shot a wintry precipitation and
overall trends point to this period of above normal chances for
colder air and precipitation chances. However, exact accumulations,
placement, and timing remain to be nailed down as far as specifics
which is common 6 to 7 days in advance of a target of opportunity
pertaining to wintry weather or any weather conditions for that
matter. Stay up to date to the latest forecast package and details
will continue to be refined as become closer to the potential event
in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

A warm front continues across Louisiana at this time and a weak
surface trough will move through Arkansas today. As a result, low
clouds, fog, and rain will be common across the area through much
of the period. Some light freezing rain will be possible at HRO
during the early morning hours. Rain will overspread the area from
west to east. VFR to IFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     43  24  39  23 / 100   0   0   0
Camden AR         55  30  47  29 / 100   0   0   0
Harrison AR       39  16  35  21 / 100   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    48  26  44  27 / 100   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  47  28  42  27 / 100   0   0   0
Monticello AR     58  34  45  31 / 100  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      49  23  45  26 / 100   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  39  19  35  20 / 100   0   0   0
Newport AR        42  26  39  24 / 100   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     51  30  43  28 / 100   0   0   0
Russellville AR   45  24  43  25 / 100   0   0   0
Searcy AR         45  26  40  24 / 100   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      48  30  41  28 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ARZ112-203.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...51