Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
432 FXUS64 KLZK 102256 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 456 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 231 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 -Coldest air of the season expected Monday morning...resulting in widespread freezing to hard-freezing conditions. -Wind chills will drop to the lower teens Monday morning for portions of northern Arkansas and the the higher terrain of the Ozarks. -Additional widespread freeze expected Monday night/Tuesday morning. -Mainly dry and warming conditions expected through the week ahead, with temperatures moderating back to the 60s to 70s. -Rain chances return to the forecast area by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 231 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 Latest objective sfc analysis and sfc obs indicated broad and strong sfc high pressure settling over the Cntrl to Nrn Plains, w/ robust cold advection ushering in the coldest temps of the season for Arkansas. Sfc obs acrs Nrn AR had fallen to the mid 20s as of 08Z, w/ most of Cntrl to Srn AR also below freezing in the upper 20s to low 30s. Expect a chilly and blustery morning for most of Arkansas, with gusty NWrly winds persisting thru early Mon aftn. Morning wind chill values acrs Nrn AR wl reach the low teens, to possibly single digits, but the good news is, this should be a one-morning instance, w/ winds relaxing acrs the state by Tues. Mon aftn wl stay chilly, w/ temps only climbing to the low to mid 40s for most locations. Several sites may approach daily low-high temperatures to a few degrees, w/ daily climatology indicating contending location records (mainly over Cntrl to Srn AR) are in the low 40s. Another overnight hard-freeze is expected Mon night into Tues mrng, w/ area low-temps falling to the mid to upper 20s once again. However, daily high and low temps wl begin to rebound quickly by Tues aftn, as broad sfc high pressure drifts Ewrd, ushering in low- lvl SWrly flow. Daily high temps wl trend upwards from the 60s on Tues, to the mid 70s by Fri aftn, w/ mean Ern US troughing and Wrn US ridging keeping upper-lvl subsidence in place over the Srn Cntrl US. As such, dry and warming weather is expected thru the week, before a possible pattern change brings rain chances back to the FA by this weekend. Several uncertainties remain given the extended timeframe, but deterministic and ensemble guidance is indicative of Wrn US ridging weakening by late this week, w/ a prominent trof digging Swrd quickly out of the Pac-NW, and maneuvering Ewrd, ejecting over the Srn Great Plains. Prominent moisture return is progged, w/ NAEFS climatology suggesting near 90% percentile of precip water values extending over much of the Srn Cntrl US and Gulf Coast. For now, moderate chance PoPs are included in the fcst for much of the state next weekend, but greater details on any hazardous weather potential remain unclear. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 455 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025 Expect VFR flight category over the duration of the forecast period from Monday evening through Tuesday evening. All sites will experience variable winds Monday night which may be brisk at times. Low level wind shear will be noted at the northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK on Tuesday morning. Surface winds will become established on Tuesday morning and quickly begin to gust for the remainder of the period of Tuesday evening in excess of 25 knots across all terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 25 59 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 27 62 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 26 60 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 28 61 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 29 61 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 27 61 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 27 63 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 26 60 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 31 58 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 28 61 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 29 63 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 25 60 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 30 59 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...74