930
FXUS64 KLZK 050542
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1242 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

-Above normal temperatures and increased humidity are expected
 across much of the state through the weekend.

-Frequent chances for rain and thunderstorms with a few strong to
 severe thunderstorms possible.

-Locally heavy rainfall amounts of more than 3 inches possible
 across western/northern Arkansas through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Wednesday afternoon visible satellite imagery depicted an
expansive cloud field across the NW half of AR with scattered day
Cu over the SE half of the state. Regional radars shows an uptick
in convection over Wrn AR within the last couple to few hours
which was moving towards Cntrl AR. A few of these storms could
produce locally strong winds, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning,
and small hail, otherwise these showers and storms will serve as
a cool down temperature wise. Expect pop up variety of convection
through the early evening hours, afterwards this activity should
diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Afternoon temperatures
ranged from the lower 70s to mid 80s.

Synoptically, W to SW flow will be in place over the next couple of
days, meanwhile near the surface, winds will be S/SWrly ushering
plenty of rich gulf moisture into the region. Within the
aforementioned flow, upper level systems are progged to traverse
the region. Each wave will bring increased PoPs, favoring the NW
half of AR each day through Friday. While a couple storms could
become strong to severe, widespread organized severe weather is
not expected.

By the end of the period, W and SW flow will become more zonal to
WNWrly opening the door to potential MCS activity. This will be
discussed further in the next forecast period. Through Friday, highs
should top out in the lower 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid
60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Nearly zonal flow aloft will be transitioning to a more weak NW flow
aloft at the start of the long term period...with an unsettled
pattern expected to continue for at least Sat. As the flow aloft
becomes more NWRLY on Sat...a weak upper disturbance will pass SE
over the region...with scattered to widespread convection expected
Sat/Sat night. In fact...this may develop into a complex of
convection as the disturbances moves SE over the state. Strong/SVR
convection will be possible as ample instability is forecast. The
primary threat looks to be damaging winds...but some hail and a
brief tornado could also be possible. While the threat for heavy
rainfall will continue for portions of the area...mainly NWRN
sections...this system looks to be moving at a more rapid rate
across the state to be more locally heavy rainfall potential.

By Sun afternoon...the flow aloft will become a bit stronger from
the NW...with a break in the convection potential Sun into Mon as
weak high pressure moves over the region. By early next week...an
upper low will be situated over the Great Lakes Region...with some
upper disturbances rotating around the base of this upper low over
AR. These additional waves will keep some potential for SHRA/TSRA
off and on into the middle of next week. However...a cold front may
finally drop south into the state by the end of the forecast...with
chances for precip potentially decreasing as the front attempts to
push through.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period across
the state. MVFR/IFR conditions will develop over portions of
central, western, and southwestern Arkansas if areas of dense fog
do materialize during the early morning hours. Fog should
dissipate at or around 15z, allowing ceilings to lift back to VFR
at impacted TAF sites. Winds will remain S/SW through the period
but remain light. Some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
are possible mainly over portions of north and central Arkansas
after 18z, but confidence is too low to place at any one TAF site.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     87  71  85  69 /  30  10  60  60
Camden AR         90  72  93  72 /  20   0  10  10
Harrison AR       83  68  81  66 /  10  20  70  60
Hot Springs AR    89  70  90  71 /  10   0  20  20
Little Rock   AR  89  73  89  72 /  20   0  30  30
Monticello AR     92  74  93  74 /  30   0  20  10
Mount Ida AR      88  69  89  71 /  10  10  30  20
Mountain Home AR  84  68  81  66 /  20  20  80  60
Newport AR        87  71  86  71 /  30   0  50  50
Pine Bluff AR     90  72  91  73 /  20   0  20  20
Russellville AR   87  71  87  70 /  10  10  50  40
Searcy AR         88  71  87  70 /  20   0  40  40
Stuttgart AR      89  74  89  74 /  20   0  30  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...Kelly