203
FXUS64 KLZK 181642
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1142 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

-Dangerous heat will persist across the state for another couple
 days before some relief is seen.

-Isolated showers/storms are possible again today, with
 microbursts possibly producing strong wind gusts in a few storms.

-Rainfall may be a little more widespread Tue-Wed as a cold front
 moves across the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Another day of dangerous heat is expected across the state and
heat headlines have been expanded to include extreme heat warnings
for portions of eastern, central and western Arkansas. High
temperatures on Sunday were fairly extreme in nature, with KRUE
hitting 106 F for an afternoon high. Many other reporting stations
hit the century mark as well. These numbers were close to
yesterday`s NBM90 values and utilized some of that data to
forecast today`s high temperatures.

Isolated showers/storms possible once again today, mainly during
the afternoon/evening hours. Main concerns will again be
microbursts that could produce very localized wind damage, as well
as a few heavy downpours.

H500 ridging will begin to expand west across the western CONUS
over the next few days which will provide mid-level NW/N flow
across the region. This will help push a cold front through and
as the front moves across the area, precip may become a bit more
widespread. Will have to watch for isolated severe storms given
the heat and associated extreme instability in place near the
boundary.

Some areas could begin to see relief on Tuesday with more of the
state expected to see cooler temps by Wed-Thu. Will monitor latest
trends to see if/where heat headlines are needed over the next
couple days.

Will continue to see temperatures closer to normal through the
upcoming weekend with a break in heat headlines possible for
several days. Another front may move across the state by early
next week which could provide below normal temperatures for late
August across Arkansas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Expect VFR flight category across all sites for the duration of the
forecast period from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.
Introduced TEMPO groups for Monday afternoon into Monday evening for
TSRA which will have a microburst potential. It is advised not to
fly into any thunderstorm cells today as microburst potential is
extremely high looking at all parameters. The sudden rush of air
downward (downburst or microburst potential) will exist at the
surface and at flight level within storms that do develop. Storms
will wane into later Monday evening at to after sunset. Conditions
will become fair and clear across the forecast area into by Monday
night into early Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75 100  73  94 /  30  40  50  60
Camden AR         73 101  72  97 /  30  20  10  50
Harrison AR       73  96  70  90 /  30  40  40  50
Hot Springs AR    76 102  74  97 /  30  30  20  60
Little Rock   AR  77 100  75  94 /  30  20  20  60
Monticello AR     75 101  75  99 /  30  10  10  40
Mount Ida AR      73 100  72  95 /  30  20  20  60
Mountain Home AR  72  98  71  91 /  30  40  40  50
Newport AR        75 100  74  94 /  20  20  30  50
Pine Bluff AR     74 101  73  97 /  30  10  10  40
Russellville AR   76 102  75  96 /  30  30  30  60
Searcy AR         75 101  73  94 /  30  20  30  60
Stuttgart AR      76 101  75  97 /  30  10  20  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>007-014-015-
024-052-053-062-063-066>069-103-113-123-137-140-141-212-213-
221>223-237-240-241-340-341.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ007-008-016-
017-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-
140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ008-016-
017-025-031>034-039-042>047-054>057-064-065-121-122-130-138-230-
238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74