403
FXUS64 KLZK 020747
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
247 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A weak SFC frontal boundary dropped south through the state on
Tue...with this boundary dropping south of AR by this Wed morning.
Weak SFC high pressure will settle across NRN portions of the state
by this Wed afternoon...keeping chances for precip mostly low and
temps in the mid 80s to low 90s for highs. Dewpts will also be
somewhat notably more comfortable than in recent days...in the low
60s to low 70s. There still may be an isolated SHRA/TSRA or two over
WRN sections under a weak upper wave...but again...most areas should
remain dry.

Not much different expected for Thu...though temps will warm a few
deg as SFC high pressure slides east some. Dewpts will rebound a bit
as well...with more muggy conditions expected. Heat index values
will creep up as a result...but should be mostly below Heat Adv
levels. Some very isolated afternoon convection may again be
possible...mainly over SWRN sections under a weak upper level
disturbance.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

An upper level ridge should be centered over AR to begin the period.
At the surface, high pressure is expected to be invof New England
with a surface low over Ern CO. Between systems, winds should begin
to switch from E/SE to S on Friday, then S/SW thereafter. Through
Saturday the upper ridge will meander about the Srn CONUS before a
weak short wave trough moves Ewrd across the Mid/Upper MS Valley. As
the ridge retrogrades into the Four Corners region, upper level
energy is progged to move through NW flow bringing better PoP
chances to AR in the latter half of the long term.

Showers and thunderstorms should be few and far between over the
weekend in large part due to large scale forcing for subsidence over
the region via the upper ridge. By the start of the work week into
mid week, forcing for ascent will increase statewide thanks to the
placement of the trough coupled with the retreat of the ridge.
Combining these upper level impulses with daytime heating should
give highest PoP chances to the afternoon and evening hours.
Organized severe weather appears unlikely but isolated damaging
winds could be possible with the strongest of storms.

Temperatures through the weekend will modify, reaching the middle
to upper 90s across AR for highs. Moisture levels will increase on
sustained Srly flow so heat headlines may need to make a
reappearance as apparent T`s approach 105 degrees.|

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  70  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         94  73  92  72 /   0   0  10   0
Harrison AR       87  66  88  69 /   0   0  10   0
Hot Springs AR    92  73  92  72 /   0   0  10   0
Little Rock   AR  91  73  93  73 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     92  74  93  73 /   0   0  10   0
Mount Ida AR      91  72  90  72 /   0   0  10   0
Mountain Home AR  88  66  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        91  72  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     91  72  92  72 /   0   0  10   0
Russellville AR   91  71  92  73 /   0   0  10   0
Searcy AR         91  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      91  74  91  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70