616
FXUS64 KLZK 242333
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
633 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A new front will drop south through the state starting this
morning...eventually slowing over SWRN sections by this Sun
afternoon and evening. Initially...this front will slow/stall over
SWRN sections and just SW of AR by Mon morning...with precip
starting to overspread NWRN/WRN sections of the state Mon morning
along/north of this front. Have bumped POPs across the NWRN half of
the CWA to start earlier on Mon as this activity looks to develop
sooner as an upper wave drops SE into this portion of the state.

Before the precip moves in on Mon...another hot and dry day is
expected this Sun...even with the front dropping south. Highs will
be near or just above normal for central to SRN sections in the
upper 80s to mid 90s...but a bit cooler over NRN sections in the mid
to upper 80s. Highs on Mon will range from the upper 60s to upper
70s over NRN/NWRN sections where rain starts earlier...to the 80s to
low 90s further south where rain will hold off a bit longer.

By Mon night into Tue...this front will drop further S/SW...around
the same time as a new and a bit stronger upper disturbance passes
SE in the NW flow aloft. This will keep precip chances up for much
of the CWA into Tue afternoon...though NERN sections may remain a
bit drier. Scattered/widespread SHRA and some TSRA will be possible
with this activity Mon morning through Tue afternoon...then chances
for convection decrease Tue afternoon evening as the front drops
further south...and the upper wave moves out of the area.

Drier conditions will be seen for Wed as SFC high pressure starts
settling across the region. Decreasing cloud cover and the drier air
will allow temps to warm on Wed over Tue rain cooled temps. Highs on
Tue will be mainly in the 70s for most areas...though some upper 60s
could be seen over WRN sections where rainfall looks to persist much
of the day. Further NE...highs may warm into the 80s. By Wed
morning...lows will dip down into the 50s for most areas due to the
high pressure settling into the region...and drier air moving in.
Wouldn`t be too surprised to see a couple upper 40s for lows Wed
morning where winds become light and cloud cover dissipates.

A new upper disturbance will move over the region starting Wed night
into Thu in the NW flow aloft...with rain chances returning to the
forecast. Additional disturbances look to pass over the region into
the upcoming weekend...keeping an active pattern in place. This may
allow for continued chances for rounds of convection later this
week...which could result in several inches of rainfall. Depending
on how many waves pass overhead...will need to monitor the potential
for heavy rainfall by late in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A cold front has pushed through the state bringing some mid and
high level cloudiness. Calm to light N/NE winds will prevail
through the overnight hours into Monday morning. A disturbance
embedded within NW flow will bring additional cloudiness and
showers entering NW Arkansas around sunrise. Elected to put in
PROB30 groups in at KHRO & KBPK as those two terminals are the
most likely to see rainfall which could bring brief MVFR
conditions to each terminal as early as 15Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will persist through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     62  80  59  80 /   0  30  50  20
Camden AR         66  90  66  78 /   0  10  10  30
Harrison AR       61  73  58  78 /  10  60  50  20
Hot Springs AR    68  86  63  76 /   0  20  40  50
Little Rock   AR  67  83  63  75 /   0  30  50  40
Monticello AR     66  91  66  80 /   0   0  10  20
Mount Ida AR      68  84  63  75 /  10  30  50  50
Mountain Home AR  62  75  58  81 /   0  50  40  10
Newport AR        61  81  62  79 /   0  20  40  20
Pine Bluff AR     65  88  64  77 /   0  10  20  30
Russellville AR   68  81  63  78 /  10  50  70  40
Searcy AR         63  82  61  78 /  10  30  50  30
Stuttgart AR      65  86  64  76 /   0  10  40  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...Kelly