325
FXUS64 KLZK 061131
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
631 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Heat Advisories are in effect for entire CWA today

- Scattered showers/storms are possible this afternoon/evening

- Backdoor cold front may bring lower heat indices Monday and Tuesday

- Upper ridge ensures hot/dry wx persists through middle of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Summer-like weather pattern will continue across AR beneath an
expansive upper ridge. This ridge is expected to strengthen heading
through early part of next week which should increase large scale
forcing for subsidence over the Srn MS Valley. This will serve to
inhibit widespread organized convection through middle part of next
work week. Having said that, PoP chances remain the forecast today
(20%-30%) due to the approach of a backdoor cold front; additional
information on this will be provided below.

As the ridge intensifies and a surface boundary approaches the state
from the NE today, temps are expected to climb into the upper 90s to
around 105 degrees. Given this, a heat advisory is in effect through
this evening for the entire Little Rock County Warning Area (CWA)
where heat index values between 105 and 110 are expected. If early
afternoon precip does not develop as expected or stalls by just a
few hours, heat index values could exceed 110 in places before
clouds, precip, and rain cooled outflow boundaries develop.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon/evening associated with backdoor cold front pushing into
the state from the OH Valley. Compressional warming and moisture
pooling ahead of the front should aid in convective initiation
between 12PM and 4PM. Damaging winds would be the main hazard
with any of the stronger storms. Despite better PoP chances than
this time yesterday, little to no appreciable rainfall expected to
occur in an particular location.

A brief reprieve from apparent T`s is expected on Monday and Tuesday
with the arrival of NE surface winds behind a weak frontal boundary.
Relief should be temporary as winds are forecast to switch to the
S/SW on Wednesday with the retreat of aforementioned front. The good
news for now is heat index values are anticipated to fall short of
advisory criteria for Monday and Tuesday across the Little Rock CWA.

Long range ensemble guidance is depicting a potential
weakening/retrograding of the ridge in the Thursday through Saturday
time frame which could open the door for weather systems to move
towards the state. Beyond this period, the ridge is expected to
slowly build back into the region with rain chances dwindling.

Outdoor burning is highly discouraged across the state with all
counties now highlighted by "high" wildfire danger. Burn bans occupy
all but 3 of 75 AR counties. These 3 counties were mainly confined
to N-Cntrl/Cntrl AR where some beneficial rainfall occurred in the
last one to two weeks. With little to no appreciable rainfall in the
forecast through at least middle part of next week, decreasing
soil moisture will increase the statewide wildfire threat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conds are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Mid-
clouds are expected to develop today ahead of a backdoor cold
front which will move from NE to SW through evening/ overnight
period. Mentioned low-end PoP chances at a Nrn/Cntrl/SErn sites
where SHRA could develop during the afternoon. Precip should
slowly diminish in coverage after sunset. Winds will generally be
E at 10 kts or less today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR    104  71  96  66 /  20  10   0   0
Camden AR        103  73 100  69 /  20  20  20  10
Harrison AR      102  71  95  67 /  30  20   0   0
Hot Springs AR   104  75 100  70 /  30  20  10   0
Little Rock   AR 101  76  98  72 /  30  20   0   0
Monticello AR    101  75  98  73 /  30  20  10   0
Mount Ida AR     104  73 101  68 /  30  20  20  10
Mountain Home AR 102  70  94  66 /  30  20   0   0
Newport AR       101  72  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR    102  73  97  69 /  30  20   0   0
Russellville AR  104  75  98  70 /  30  20   0   0
Searcy AR        103  72  97  68 /  30  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR     103  74  98  72 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>008-014>017-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-
130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-
340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70