013
FXUS64 KLZK 122007
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
307 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

-Hot conditions will be the primary story for the next week or so
 as heat headlines are now in effect through the weekend.

-Additional heat headlines are highly likely into early next week
 if ensemble and deterministic model trends continue.

-Little to no chances for precipitation expected through this
 week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

High pressure will continue to dominate the forecast through this
forecast cycle and likely well into next week. Satellite this
afternoon shows afternoon diurnal CU over a large part of the
state with a few isolated showers not popping up across the state
this afternoon. Light south to southwest winds are expected to
continue with an few afternoon breezes of 15 to 20 mph expected
before winds become light and variable an hour or two after sunset
across the state.

Latest ensemble and deterministic guidance this afternoon shows
that high pressure currently over the southern Plains will
continue to dominate the forecast with little to no chance for
rainfall expected over the next seven days. A brief weakening of
high pressure is expected this weekend as the ridge shifts into
the mid south then the southeast US this weekend. High
temperatures across the state will be in the upper 90s to over 100
degrees which are expected through early next week and likely
longer. An analysis of H850 temperatures through next weekend
against LZK sounding climatology are at or above the 90th
percentile for both the 12z and 00z guidance.

Low temperatures each morning will range from the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees each morning through early next week. This will
provide little in the way of relief overnight across the state.
Given the long duration of the hazardous heat, would not be
surprised if additional Extreme Heat Warnings are needed this
weekend across parts of central, eastern and northeast Arkansas
with Heat Advisories elsewhere. In addition to those areas, NWS
Heat Risk and NBM 75th and NBM 90th shows heat index values in
excess of 110 degrees Friday through Sunday across parts of
northern, central, eastern, southeast, east and northeast parts of
the state. If this trend continues, then those areas would likely
need to be upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning.

The current heat wave will likely last well into August with some
longer term ensemble guidance showing the heat wave continuing
into early September across the state. If you are looking at the
current heat wave from a climatological prospective in regards to
consecutive days of temperatures of 100 degrees or greater, the
longest on record in the Little Rock area is 15 set back in 1980,
but that record very well could be challenged and possible broken.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light
south to southwest winds with a few isolated afternoon breezes
around 15 kts expected across the state. A few diurnal CU
expected this afternoon and again near the end of the forecast
period

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     80 102  79 103 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         77  98  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       78  98  78  99 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    78  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  80 101  80 101 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     79  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      76  98  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  77  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        79 101  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     78  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   79 102  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         79 101  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      80 101  79 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ004>007-014-015-024-
031-039-042-043-052>056-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-
140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ008-016-017-
025-032>034-044>047-057.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...76