538
FXUS64 KLZK 190644
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
144 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

-Another day of dangerous heat before temperatures cool off
 Wednesday into Thursday.

-A few strong to severe storms possible today, mainly across the
 north.

-Some beneficial rainfall is possible across parts of the state
 through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Another day of high temperatures topping out around 100 F across
the state and heat indices climbing into the 100-115 range. This
will be influenced by the H500 ridge over the state, but in the
coming days the ridge is expected to slide west and become
centered over the Four Corners. This will provide N/NW flow across
much of the central and southern US into next week.

While temperatures will warm significantly today, some locations
could begin to see relief as early as this afternoon. A few
disturbances riding around the eastern periphery of the mid-level
ridge will move south across the region. Additionally, at the sfc
a cold front will progress toward the state as well. These
features will help promote precip development from this afternoon
through Thursday before the front makes it south of the state.

Will have to watch for a few strong/severe thunderstorms this
afternoon, mainly across northern Arkansas. Similar conditions as
previous days but coverage is expected to be a bit more widespread
today. Main severe concerns will be damaging wind gusts
associated with potential wet microbursts. Some locally heavy
downpours are possible as well.

Increased coverage in precip and cloud cover will aid in cooling
temperatures by Wednesday and especially into Thursday. Some
spots could see some appreciable rainfall that will aid in short
term rainfall deficits, but many will miss out. Another front is
set to move across the state later this weekend, which is expected
to bring cooler air to the state early next week. It`s possible
that highs near the end of the period may only be in the 70s F
across northern AR with 80s F elsewhere, which would be a welcome
site for late August in Arkansas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

VFR conditions will be seen through much of the period with
variable sfc winds at less than 10 kts. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop Tuesday afternoon and
evening and could briefly impact area terminals. Greatest
concentration of precip is expected across northern AR. Some
precip could linger and drift south after 20/00z through the end
of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR    101  72  93  69 /  50  50  40  10
Camden AR        101  72  96  71 /  20  20  60  20
Harrison AR       97  70  91  67 /  40  50  30  10
Hot Springs AR   103  74  97  73 /  40  30  50  20
Little Rock   AR 101  75  94  73 /  50  40  50  10
Monticello AR    102  75  97  72 /  20  20  60  20
Mount Ida AR     101  72  95  71 /  40  40  50  20
Mountain Home AR  99  71  92  68 /  40  50  30  10
Newport AR       101  74  93  70 /  50  40  40  10
Pine Bluff AR    102  74  96  71 /  30  30  50  20
Russellville AR  104  74  97  73 /  40  40  40  20
Searcy AR        102  73  95  70 /  50  40  50  10
Stuttgart AR     102  75  95  72 /  40  40  50  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ004>006-014-015-024-052-053-066-103-113-123-137-140-141-212-
213-221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341.

Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ007-008-016-017-025-031>034-039-042>047-054>057-062>065-
067>069-121-122-130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...67