799
FXUS64 KLZK 301752
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1252 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

-Daily chances for scattered strong to severe storms will persist
through at least Monday

-Area temperatures could reach 90 degrees, with heat index values
exceeding 100 degrees on Monday afternoon

-Settled weather and lower humidity conditions are forecast
 through the latter half of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Settled weather condns were prevalent over much of the FA near
30/06Z Fri night, w/ regional radar depicting ongoing convective
activity moving Ewrd over NErn OK. Thru sunrise Sat mrng, there is
moderate confidence of fog development over Cntrl to Nrn AR, w/
recent night fog sat imgry depicting some development, coinciding w/
lowering VISBYs on area sfc obs.

Thru the weekend, shortwave low-amplitude ridging w/ modest flow wl
reside acrs the Mid-South. Sat and Sun, additional rounds of
afternoon convective development is expected along a sfc Theta-E
gradient/low-lvl convergence zone, draped fm NW to SE over Nrn AR.
Aftn MUCAPE values are progged to reach 3000 J/kg over much of AR,
w/ 30 kts of effective shear supportive of some organized storm
potential thru the aftn to evng hours. Large 3CAPE values > 150 J/kg
wl be conducive of strong initial updrafts, w/ main concerns
including large hail and downburst wind gusts. In addition to the
severe threat, high PWAT values wl yield very efficient rainfall
rates, w/ HREF 90th %ile QPF highlighting pockets of 1.5 to 2" or
greater rainfall w/ any development, which may exacerbate recent
flash flooding issues.

Mon, NWrly H500 flow looks to incrs in magnitude acrs the Mid-South
as a shortwave trof pivots Swrd into mean Ern US troughing. A
corridor of more organized MCS potential appears possible acrs the
lower MS River Valley, as depicted by shear profiles, antecedent
instability, and various model depictions in the low-lvl mass
fields. For now, low confidence exists on where possible MCS
activity may arise, but medium confidence exists on organized severe
weather potential for the Ern half of the state Mon aftn to evng.

Tues into Wed, broad sfc high pressure over the Midwest wl extend
SWwrd into the Srn Cntrl US, w/ NErly sfc winds ushering in much-
anticipated drier air, and providing some much needed relief fm the
humidity. Thru the latter half of the week, upper ridging wl shift
Ewrd, upper lvl subsidence centering over the FA, and sfc high
pressure quelling area precip chances to just local diurnal
activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings were observed on satellite this
afternoon across the state. Hi-res CAMs continues to show
isolated SHRA/TSRA are possible across parts of northern and
western Arkansas this afternoon, then dissipating shortly after
sunset. Light E/NE winds will persist through Sunday morning, then
veer to the S/SE by Sunday afternoon. An additional round of MVFR
ceilings with some fog is possible again overnight into Sunday
morning mainly across the northern terminals.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  86  70  90 /  30  30  10  20
Camden AR         72  93  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
Harrison AR       67  85  68  87 /  50  30  10  10
Hot Springs AR    72  90  72  94 /  20  20   0  10
Little Rock   AR  70  88  71  92 /  20  20  10  10
Monticello AR     72  92  72  94 /  10  30  10  10
Mount Ida AR      73  89  73  93 /  20  20   0  10
Mountain Home AR  67  84  68  88 /  40  40  20  20
Newport AR        69  87  70  90 /  10  30  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     72  90  72  93 /  20  20  10  10
Russellville AR   72  89  72  92 /  30  30   0   0
Searcy AR         68  88  69  91 /  20  20  10  20
Stuttgart AR      72  89  73  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...76