230
FXUS64 KLZK 151848
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
148 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Showers/storms expected to continue through Wednesday evening

- Damaging winds and isolated flash flood the main concerns

- Ridge of high pressure moves back into the region this weekend

- Hot and humid conditions return by the weekend into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were ongoing during the
early morning hours on Wednesday. Remaining activity was mainly
concentrated over portions of Nrn AR, elsewhere skies were mostly
cloudy. Temps ranged from the lower to middle 70s. As long as mid
and high clouds linger, fog should stay isolated. If pockets of
clearing skies develop before sunrise, fog may develop in the
absence of sufficient vertical mixing, RH values near 100 percent,
and recent rainfall from earlier in the afternoon and evening
hours from Tuesday.

Looking locally, an upper level low was situated over the ArkLaTex
region wedged to the S of an expansive and stout upper ridge parked
over the Cntrl Plains/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes and OH River
Valleys. The expansive ridge to our N is responsible for background
clockwise flow over the region. Within this flow regime, the upper
and near surface low (H925) is anticipated to retrograde into TX
over the next day to day and a half. Resultant showers/storms should
move E to W or NE to SW, similar in fashion to what was observed on
Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm activity on Wednesday is expected
to become most widespread during the late morning and early
afternoon hours correlated with peak diurnal heating. Damaging winds
and isolated instances of flash flooding would be the main concerns
with the strongest of storms. Due to anticipated clouds and precip,
highs on Wednesday are only expected to climb into the upper 70s to
upper 80, i.e. slightly below average for the date. Lingering
convection may carryover into Wednesday night but should decrease in
coverage and intensity with loss of daytime heating.

Heading in Thursday, PoPs may linger over portions of Nrn AR during
the afternoon, otherwise a drying pattern is in store across the
Natural State going forward. Temps will begin to modify.

The large scale pattern should feature a dissipating upper low over
W TX (our former storm system), with expansive ridging building in
over the nations mid section through late week. Ern periphery of the
upper ridge will reside over the region by the weekend with surface
high pressure situated over the Srn MS Valley. By early next week,
upper flow will be NWrly locally on said Ern flank of the ridge. At
this time, do not see much indication of shortwave activity or upper
level impulses propagating within NWrly flow across the region
however this will be monitored for future rain/storm chances. We
could be looking at a cold front approaching by mid week but details
are not known at this time. Temp wise, readings will climb back into
the 90s, reaching the mid and upper 90s by the weekend into next
early next week. Probabilities of high temp reaching or exceeding
100 stands at 30-50 percent on Monday and Tuesday spanning from the
AR River Valley, into portions of Cntrl AR, into portions of E and
NE AR. Excess ground moisture may work to prevent temps reaching
100 across Cntrl/Ern half of AR, nonetheless it will be hot and
humid during this time. Heat headlines may return by early next
week once the upper ridge and surface high take hold of the
weather pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

MVFR/VFR conditions are mostly expected through the period. With
that said, periods of rain will be possible through afternoon and
evening hours as a disturbance moves slowly through the area. This
will bring slow moving showers and thunderstorms that train over
the same area. Brief period of IFR/LIFR conditions are possible
with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     71  88  72  92 /  20  40  10  10
Camden AR         69  91  71  94 /  20  10   0   0
Harrison AR       69  84  70  89 /  20  40  10  20
Hot Springs AR    70  91  72  93 /  20  10   0  10
Little Rock   AR  71  91  74  93 /  20  10   0   0
Monticello AR     71  92  73  94 /  20   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      68  89  71  90 /  20  10   0  10
Mountain Home AR  70  84  70  89 /  20  40  10  10
Newport AR        72  89  73  93 /  20  40  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     70  91  72  93 /  10  10   0   0
Russellville AR   71  90  73  93 /  30  10  10  10
Searcy AR         70  90  72  93 /  20  10  10  10
Stuttgart AR      72  90  74  93 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...73