919
FXUS64 KLZK 221723
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1223 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

CURRENTLY:

As of 2:20 AM CDT, light winds and mostly clear skies occupy most of
the state of Arkansas with a cloud deck across the southeastern and
far southern portions of the state where a stationary front
resides.

TODAY (TUESDAY) THROUGH MONDAY:

Expect dry conditions across the majority of the CWA and state of
Arkansas on Tuesday with one exception, a stationary front will
reside across southeastern Arkansas, thus keeping PoP chances in the
range of 15% to 25% in close proximity to this feature as a few
showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop along this
boundary.

Into Wednesday, at H500, southwesterly flow over Arkansas will
persist with a shortwave pulse that is expected to move over the
state which will aid in the development of showers and
thunderstorms. At the sfc, a warm front will lift northward during
the day on Wednesday across the state. Expect rain and thunderstorm
chances to increase from southwest to northeast throughout the day
as this sfc boundary lifts northward across the state.

Onward to finish out the workweek on Thursday and Friday, expect the
continued trend of overall unsettled weather to continue. At H500,
southwesterly flow will persist over Arkansas with a series of
shortwave pulses within the flow pattern passing over the state. At
the sfc, the warm front lifting across the state from Wednesday will
be into southern Missouri and continue lifting with an approaching
cold front sweeping into northwestern Arkansas during the day on
Friday. Expect increased PoPs to remain in the forecast via showers
and thunderstorm activity.

Into the weekend, at the sfc, the cold front will become stalled out
across central Arkansas as a stationary front on Saturday before the
boundary begins to lift back to the northeast as a warm front on
Sunday. Rain and thunderstorm chances will persist into the day on
Saturday with lowering PoPs across the southern half of the state
during the day on Sunday as the greatest opportunity for PoPs will
be along and north of the warm front during the day on Sunday.
Expect a greater chance of overall coverage statewide for rain and
thunderstorm activity on Saturday with chances reserved to north of
the I-40 corridor during the day on Sunday.

Into the beginning of next week, at the sfc, Monday looks to be
overall dry statewide as the warm front pushes east of the state and
the next approaching cold front remains too far west of the state to
have any impact residing between the leeward side of the Rocky
Mountain region of the CONUS across New Mexico, Colorado, and,
Wyoming. At H500, a closed low will develop over the Southwestern
region of the CONUS and eject northeastward through the base of an
ejecting trof that will move into the general vicinity of Arkansas
and present a return to unsettled weather moving past Monday.

Specifics regarding severe weather remain too far in advance and
show a signal of low confidence at the moment; however, will
continue to closely monitor trends, but a signal for a severe
weather outbreak doesn`t appear to be in the cards at the current
time with analysis of upper air dynamics and the forecast of
surface variables.

Temperatures over the duration of this forecast package will remain
roughly 5 to near 10 degrees above typical normals for late April
with respect to both low temperatures and high temperatures. In part
to surface flow that will be southerly, southwesterly, and easterly
over the majority of the period in unison with upper lvl flow that
will be predominately southwesterly through the majority of the
period and consist of an amplified ridge over Arkansas through the
weekend before the feature begins to slide eastward and
southwesterly flow begins to reside again over Arkansas.

A preliminary look at forecast QPF or total rainfall over this seven
day period from today (Tuesday) through Monday has backed off
overall looking at multiple sources of guidance through the period.
At the moment, per this forecast package, rainfall totals over this
period have a strong signal of ranging between 0.75 inches and 1.50
inches of total rainfall. A few locations may make a run at the 2
inch rainfall total mark over this period; however, while
widespread, rainfall totals of this magnitude do not appear to be
problematic falling over this extended period of time (seven days).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period under
mostly sunny skies. Some high clouds will be possible across the
state through the overnight hours. Winds will be light out of the
south and will likely become mostly light and variable overnight.
Lastly, some patchy fog will be possible across LLQ early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     55  82  61  81 /   0  10  20  60
Camden AR         60  82  63  82 /   0  50  40  70
Harrison AR       53  79  58  76 /   0  10  20  70
Hot Springs AR    58  83  62  80 /   0  30  40  80
Little Rock   AR  60  82  64  81 /   0  20  30  70
Monticello AR     63  83  65  83 /  10  40  30  70
Mount Ida AR      57  82  62  80 /   0  30  40  80
Mountain Home AR  53  80  58  78 /   0  10  10  60
Newport AR        57  82  62  81 /   0  10  20  60
Pine Bluff AR     61  83  64  81 /   0  30  30  70
Russellville AR   57  82  61  80 /   0  20  30  70
Searcy AR         56  82  61  81 /   0  10  20  70
Stuttgart AR      61  82  65  81 /   0  20  30  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION....74
AVIATION...73