Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
305 FXUS64 KLZK 201106 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 606 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Heat will continue to be the main hazard for Arkansas over the next week and potentially longer. The good news is that most model guidance has backed off on the dewpoints from what they had showed the last few days. This was observed today with most dewpoints mixing out into the low 70s instead of the mid to upper 70s the guidance was forecasting. Looking into next week, this trend in the NBM continues with daily low dewpoints in the afternoon dropping out into the upper 60s. The byproduct of this dropping in dewpoints is that we may reach higher actually temperatures. The lower 100s in the forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday look more reachable with the drier boundary layer and the NBM shows strong confidence in reaching within a degree of 100F. This lowering of dewpoints by 3-5 degrees, will also allow for lower min temperatures. This will allow those without air conditioning to get more relief at night and reduce the overall heat illness factor slightly. Synoptically this drop in dewpoints makes sense as the guidance has shifted the upper level high further east and the low level high more over LA and the Gulf Coast. This in a way, blocks the flow of those higher dewpoints into Arkansas and instead pull them up through TX and into KS/MO. This trend on where the upper level high and how the low level flow sets up will play a big part in whether we are in a prolonged heat advisory heat wave, or excessive heat type heat wave. There will still be counties over eastern Arkansas that will reach heat indices above 110F along the lower terrain and the agricultural areas. Precip chances look low throughout the week, with some possible showers and storms over SE Arkansas with weak low level convergence and moisture fetch from the gulf making it into that area. Next real chances for rain look to be late next week as the upper level high weakens and a tropical wave moves east along the Gulf coast, bringing some forcing and moisture back into Arkansas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 VFR conditions for the majority of the state through the period. The only area with some patchy fog currently is in the the foothills of the Ouachita Mtns as KADF has fog in the area. This visibility will climb quickly this morning after sunrise, with VFR conditions for all sites by mid morning. Winds will pick up slightly in the afternoon with gusts out of the SW of 15-20kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 97 77 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 97 76 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 94 75 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 97 76 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 97 78 99 76 / 10 0 0 0 Monticello AR 97 78 98 76 / 10 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 95 76 96 73 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 95 74 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 97 78 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 97 77 99 76 / 10 0 0 0 Russellville AR 97 77 98 75 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 97 76 99 75 / 10 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 96 78 98 76 / 10 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ006-014-015-024-031-039-042-043-046-047-052>057-062>069- 121>123-130-137-138-140-141-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-340-341. Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017-025-032>034-044-045. && $$ DISCUSSION...BARHAM AVIATION...BARHAM