355
FXUS64 KLZK 040619
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
119 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

-Seasonably warm temperatures will continue through at least early
next week, with area high readings generally 5 to 8 degrees above
normal.

-More organized and widespread rain chances appear possible by mid-
week next week as a cold front approaches from the Great Plains.

-Cooler and more seasonal conditions should return by mid to late next
 week in the wake of the aforementioned cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

H500 ridging was noted acrs much of the Cntrl US to Ern US w/
amplified troughing continuing to move acrs the Wrn US. Locally,
Ern US sfc pressure continues to influence the fcst, w/ dry and
warm temps persisting thru at least the end of the weekend.

Not much has changed regarding the fcst, w/ guidance still
indicative of the aforementioned H500 ridge weakening and
shifting Swrd over the Srn Cntrl US early next week, and
generally zonal flow w/ passing embedded shortwave trofs
prevailing acrs the CONUS.

Sfc moisture wl begin increasing over the Srn Cntrl US on Mon,
and wl aid in incrsg rain chances thru the early half of next week
ahead of an aprchg cdfrnt. This cdfrnt should move into the Ozark
Plateau region during the Tues-Wed timeframe, driven by broad
Great Lakes sfc high pressure, and influence more widespread PoPs
over the FA.

In the wake of the cdfrnt, which wl shift towards a "back-door"
style frnt as sfc high pressure settles over the Great Lakes and
NErn US, NErly sfc winds wl prevail, ushering in cooler and drier
air over the Natural State thru the end of the PD, w/ settled wx
condns resuming.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Expect VFR flight category across all terminals for the entire
forecast period of early Saturday morning through early Sunday
morning. High pressure continues to keep fair weather conditions in
the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     86  58  87  64 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         86  60  86  66 /   0   0  10  10
Harrison AR       81  59  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    85  61  86  66 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  85  62  86  67 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     89  63  88  69 /   0   0  10  10
Mount Ida AR      85  61  87  65 /   0   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  83  59  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        86  60  88  66 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     87  61  88  67 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   85  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         86  59  88  66 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      86  62  88  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...74