069
FXUS64 KLZK 110744
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
244 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

-Slightly cooler temperatures expected across northern Arkansas over
 the next few days

-Coverage of showers and storms will increase from north to south
 through Friday as a front moves across the state

-An upper level ridge becomes re-established over Arkansas and
 transitions into the Southeastern region of the CONUS next week
 leading to additional hot weather with occasional chances for
 showers and thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

As of 2 AM CDT, a nearly stalled frontal boundary remains draped
across Arkansas nearly parallel and over the Interstate 40 corridor
across the state. A complex of rain and thunderstorms is present
behind this boundary which has led to some appreciable rainfall
totals of 2-4+ inches in a few locations overnight.

The weak cold front boundary will continue to slowly track southward
across the state allowing rain and isolated thunderstorms to track
into portions of central and southern Arkansas with the
precipitation predominately behind this boundary throughout the day
on Friday into Friday evening with PoP chances ending from north to
south across the state throughout the day. High temperatures on
Friday will be highly dependent on the location of the frontal
boundary and if a location has experienced any rain or storms along
with the assistance of cloud cover.

An elongated upper lvl ridge is progged to become established over
the entire Southern tier of the CONUS, specifically back over
Arkansas by the beginning of the workweek. A return to hot and dry
conditions are expected across the Natural State on Sunday and
Monday.

By mid-week, the upper lvl ridge positioned over Arkansas will begin
to shift eastward over the Mid-South to Southeastern portion of the
CONUS which will translate to upper lvl southerly to southwesterly
flow over Arkansas to finish out the forecast period between Tuesday
and Thursday. Expect hot and dry conditions to dominate the forecast
period, but given the proximity of Arkansas on the western edge of
the upper lvl ridge, PoP chances will be in the forecast across
isolated areas of the state, but widespread and appreciable rainfall
on Tuesday and Wednesday is not expected.

Into the final day of the forecast period, or Thursday, an upper lvl
SWT is expected to be over the Central Plains region of the CONUS on
approach toward the state. Additionally at the sfc, a series of
frontal boundaries will once again be present and PoP chances will
increase statewide and at the moment appear to lead toward another
decent opportunity for appreciable rainfall for Arkansas.
Consequently, with a break from above average temperatures, but this
forecast may waver slightly being seven days into the future.
However, the signal remains strong within the last several runs of
the forecast guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Expect lowered flight category over the forecast period across all
TAF sites as low as MVFR and IFR flight category for lowered CIGS
and VSBY. Lowered CIGS and scattered SHRA/TSRA continues to move
across northern sites and will expand southward over the forecast
period impacting central sites early Friday morning, and
southeastern sites by Friday later morning. All sites are expected
to return to VFR flight category later Friday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  68  95  69 /  80  10   0   0
Camden AR         93  69  96  71 /  40  10  20   0
Harrison AR       85  67  92  69 /  50  20  20   0
Hot Springs AR    90  70  96  71 /  80  10  20   0
Little Rock   AR  91  71  95  73 /  70  20  10   0
Monticello AR     94  70  94  72 /  50  20  30   0
Mount Ida AR      90  67  96  69 /  80  10  30   0
Mountain Home AR  84  67  93  68 /  70  10  10   0
Newport AR        89  70  94  71 /  60  20   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     93  69  94  71 /  50  20  20   0
Russellville AR   89  69  96  71 /  80  20  30   0
Searcy AR         90  68  95  70 /  70  10  10   0
Stuttgart AR      94  72  96  73 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74