Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
618 FXUS64 KLZK 080703 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 203 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 -A cooler and drier airmass will filter into Arkansas through the end of the workweek. -A period of dry weather conditions are likely over the next seven days or the entire duration of the forecast period from today through Tuesday. -A warming trend for temperatures overall will be present from the weekend into early next workweek. Anticipate temperatures to be 5 to 10 degrees above average overall compared to normals for mid- October. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: The beginning of the forecast period across the Natural State will begin by being characterized by a drier and cooler airmass in the wake of the FROPA on Tuesday (yesterday). Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region of the CONUS will lead to northeasterly flow across Arkansas which will usher in a continued stream of cooler and drier air into the region. In the upper lvls, elongated ridging will be present over the Southeastern region of the CONUS extending westward over the Southern Plains region of the CONUS, this includes over Arkansas which will lead to nearly zonal flow. Expect a period of temperatures that will be average for this time of the year to a few degrees below normal across the state. Low temperatures on Friday morning will fall into the low to mid 40s across portions of north-central Arkansas and the higher terrain of western Arkansas. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: Into the weekend, the surface high pressure will shift eastward and allow a return to southerly and southeasterly flow across Arkansas. In response, temperatures will begin to uptick overall and by beginning of the next workweek will be 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of the year. An upper lvl ridge will be centered over the ARK-LA-TEX region of the CONUS and nearly zonal flow will be noted over Arkansas which will keep dry and warming conditions present for the remainder of the forecast period. Expect a continuation of dry and fair weather conditions with overall warming temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 All sites will begin the forecast period from early Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning in VFR flight category. However, lowering CIGS to MVFR flight category will be possible across all terminals as a lowered cloud deck moves from north to south across the state. The MVFR CIGS have been outlined by TEMPO groups and by FM groups in locations where confidence is higher for their occurrence. All sites will return to VFR flight category around mid-day on Wednesday and remain VFR through the remainder of the period. Surface winds will gust in excess of 20 knots at the terminals of KPBF and KLLQ on Wednesday afternoon until Wednesday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 78 50 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 81 56 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 74 49 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 78 55 77 50 / 10 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 77 55 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 82 58 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 79 54 78 49 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 76 50 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 77 52 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 79 55 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 79 55 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 78 53 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 78 55 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74