Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
090 FXUS64 KLZK 220507 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1207 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 -A period of prolonged, above normal temperatures will continue for the next several days with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the low 90s into the lower 100s across Arkansas. -Overnight relief from the heat will be limited to non-existant, overnight low temperatures will only fall into the lower to upper 70s across Arkansas with an opportunity that a few locations will fail to drop out of the lower 80s overnight. -Afternoon heat index values will reach into both Heat Advisory criteria (heat index values from 105 to 109) and Extreme Heat Warning criteria (heat index values of greater than 109) across much of the state. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: The song unfortunately remains the same across the Natural State with the target of opportunity being the dangerously hot air mass that continues to impact the state and region. A stout upper lvl ridge will continue to be fixated over Arkansas and portions of the Mid-South region of the CONUS. Into mid-week, the ridge maxima aloft will become elongated, but remain positioned from Oklahoma eastward over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions of the CONUS. At the sfc, a center of high pressure is progged to be positioned off the Louisiana coastline with clock-wise flow around this feature ushering in west-southwesterly winds into the state at the surface which should further assist in keeping temperatures elevated with the advection of temperatures from central and west Texas into Arkansas. Into Friday, a stationary front which will be in decent proximity to far southeastern Arkansas (actual position forecast to be along the Gulf Coast region of the CONUS) has introduced a low chance of POPs for a few showers and/or possible isolated thunderstorms; however, these POPs remain extremely low around 15% to 25% for far southeastern Arkansas. Additionally, total rainfall from this event, if it was to take place would be around a trace amount to possibly 0.01 inch of rain. Simply put, nothing to write home about or settle the dust. The period of the forecast from Tuesday through Friday continues to appear as our best opportunity of locations across the state to reach and possibly exceed the century mark by a few degrees. Compared to late July normals, morning low temperatures are forecast to be 5 to 8 degrees above normal; whereas, afternoon high temperatures are forecast to be 6 to 10 degrees above normal. However, this isn`t surprising given the strength and position of the ridge over Arkansas and the location of the surface high pressure center at the surface off the coast of Louisiana. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: The upper lvl ridge maxima in place over Arkansas will begin to slowly retrograde back over the Central and Southern Plains regions of the CONUS. The ridge will still remain firmly in place over Arkansas, but the maxima of the ridge will be displaced slightly northwest of Arkansas over this period. At the sfc, a stationary front will extend from the Mid-West eastward into the Mid-Atlantic regions of the CONUS. A surface area of high pressure will be anchored across the Southeastern region of the CONUS. Latest guidance again wants to hint at the possibility of a low chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms across southeastern Arkansas on Saturday afternoon, but POPs look to range only from 20% to 25%, another low opportunity or rain; however, non- zero. Guidance continues to want to hint at isolated showers and thunderstorms across much of the state on Sunday into Monday, especially the eastern half of the state, but once again POP chances will be on the low end with chances hovering around 15% to 25%. Total rainfall if any rainfall does materialized will be from a trace amount to possibly as much as 0.02 inches of total rainfall, once again nothing to write home about or settle the dust. Increased cloud cover may help keep afternoon high temperatures from reaching the century mark, but this is all we ask as this point as rainfall chances over the next seven days look slim to none. Temperatures over this period compared to late July normals look to remain roughly 4 to 8 degrees above average with respect to morning low temperatures and afternoon high temperatures. The main story of the forecast will be a continuation of prolonged hot temperatures and dangerous heat index values coupled with a lack of chances for any appreciable rainfall. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Upper level high pressure wl cont to drive the AVN fcst, w/ VFR condns prevailing thru the PD. SWrly winds wl prevail again on Tues aftn, w/ no other sig wx expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 99 76 100 76 / 10 0 0 0 Camden AR 99 75 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 96 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 99 76 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 100 78 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 100 77 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 97 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 97 73 97 73 / 10 0 0 0 Newport AR 99 78 100 78 / 10 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 99 77 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 99 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 99 79 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ004>006-014-015-042- 052>055-062-063-066>068-103-112-113-137-140-141-203-212-213- 221>223-237-240-241-313-340-341. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ007-008-016- 017-024-025-031>034-039-043>047-056-057-064-065-069-121>123-130- 138-230-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...72