237
FXUS64 KLZK 072326
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
626 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

19z subjective surface analysis indicates a convectively enhanced
boundary located in the vicinity of interstate 40. Current radar
observations indicate a few light returns western and central
Arkansas.

Latest CAM guidance continues to suggest that the boundary will
initiate convection during the late afternoon and early evening.
Activity is expected to grow upscale somewhat while the focus for
initiation moves southward Forecasts will continue to reflect this
scenario.

The boundary will again be a focus for scattered activity during the
day on Sunday.

Sunday night, models continue to indicate that a large MCS will form
over the southern high plains, then will move southeastward
towards the forecast area. Forecasts will reflect this
possibility, with southwest sections of the state having the
greatest chance for thunderstorms and associated hazards.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Somewhat late spring sensible weather elements will persist
during this period.

The previously mentioned boundary will be in the vicinity of the
mid south during this time period. A slow moving cutoff upper low
will approach during this period. These features will promote
several periods of convection during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025



Radar and satellite imagery indicates convection developing along
and south of a line from Langely. to Malvern, to Stuttgart. This
is likely where forcing is best, and any TSRA through 09z should
be along and to the south of this line.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  89  68  83 /  30   0  30  40
Camden AR         70  90  68  83 /  70  30  70  80
Harrison AR       64  87  64  81 /   0  10  40  20
Hot Springs AR    68  91  68  84 /  60   0  50  60
Little Rock   AR  71  91  71  84 /  50   0  30  60
Monticello AR     72  91  71  84 /  70  40  50  90
Mount Ida AR      68  92  67  84 /  50  10  50  50
Mountain Home AR  64  86  65  81 /  10  10  40  30
Newport AR        69  89  69  81 /  40   0  20  50
Pine Bluff AR     71  90  69  83 /  70  20  50  80
Russellville AR   68  91  68  84 /  20   0  30  40
Searcy AR         69  90  68  84 /  40   0  20  50
Stuttgart AR      72  89  71  82 /  60  10  30  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55