585
FXUS64 KLZK 262302
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
502 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 138 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Zonal flow aloft will remain in place through the overnight hours
as sfc ridging lingers over the area. This will provide cool
temperatures across the state with the coldest readings expected
across north-central to northeast Arkansas.

Changes are anticipated across the state on Wednesday as sfc ridging
pulls away from the area and an H500 trough begins to approach from
the west. A developing sfc cyclone across the TX/OK panhandles will
begin to advance eastward. A leading warm front will begin to lift
north toward the state and is expected to make it as far north as
the I-40 corridor by Wednesday evening. Shortly after a cold front
will overtake the area, moving from NW to SE. Rain chances
associated with these features will generally be confined to
northern and eastern parts of the state.

Behind the front, NW winds will gust above 20 mph at times through
Thursday as a robust sfc ridge moves into the state from the NW. As
the H500 trough passes to the east, mid-level flow aloft will
become NW and cold air will continue to filter in.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 138 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

In the extended period, persistent troughing south of Hudson Bay and
ridging along the Pacific coast will result in a large scale
northwest wind flow aloft.

A cold front along the Gulf Coast will ride the flow away from
Arkansas, and will be followed by a large area of high pressure
Thursday night and Friday. The high will bring another round of cool
air/below average temperatures to the state. A second cold front
will cross the region from the north to begin the weekend, and this
will keep below to well below seasonal readings going into early
next week. Locations that have yet to experience a freeze will
likely have several freezes by the end of the period.

As far as precipitation, there will be little to none. Moisture will
be limited in the coming days, and cannot rule out a sprinkle or
flurries in places. Otherwise, this is a dry forecast.

Toward the end of the period, it appears there may be a storm system
forming in south Texas or the southern Gulf of Mexico, and this may
throw some moisture in our direction. However, since this
is a week away, confidence in this scenario is low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Expect overall VFR conditions over the forecast period from Tuesday
evening though Wednesday evening. CIGS will become defined and lower
over the period, but will remain in VFR flight category as vicinity
showers will be noted across all terminals by Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday evening. Wind shear will be present across all sites
beginning early Wednesday morning and remaining throughout the
period for the central and southeastern terminals. Surface wind
gusts will be present at the central and southern sites of KLIT,
KHOT, KADF, KPBF, and KLLQ on Wednesday midday through Wednesday
evening in excess of 22 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     38  59  41  50 /   0  10  20  10
Camden AR         41  71  48  57 /   0   0  10  10
Harrison AR       38  58  34  43 /   0  10  20   0
Hot Springs AR    41  68  44  54 /   0  10  10  10
Little Rock   AR  41  65  46  54 /   0  10  20  10
Monticello AR     43  68  49  55 /   0  10  20  10
Mount Ida AR      40  69  41  53 /   0  10  10  10
Mountain Home AR  37  58  37  46 /   0  20  20  10
Newport AR        38  60  43  50 /   0  20  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     40  67  46  54 /   0  10  20  10
Russellville AR   39  65  42  53 /   0  10  20  10
Searcy AR         38  61  43  53 /   0  10  20  10
Stuttgart AR      41  65  46  53 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...74