419
FXUS64 KLZK 260554
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1254 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

-An increase in afternoon/evening rain chances over the weekend
 could provide temporary relief from the heat.

-Daily Heat Advisories are possible through the weekend. Afternoon
 heat index values are expected to range from 105 to 110 degrees,
 particularly across the Arkansas River Valley, Central, and East
 to Northeast Arkansas.

-Heat and humidity will really crank up next week with
 temperatures approaching/exceeding 100 degrees with heat
 headlines likely needed each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

AR will reside on the Wrn periphery of a stout upper ridge through
the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will be centered off the
E coast with Srly flow entrenched over the Srn MS Valley.

Weak upper level energy is anticipated to track clockwise around the
periphery of the aforementioned high. This feature will bring
scattered rain chances to the state each day through Sunday. PoP
chances will greatest during the afternoon and early evening hours.
High temperatures both days should top out in the upper 80s to lower
90s thanks to increased clouds and scattered precipitation. A Heat
Advisory is place across the AR River Valley, portions of Cntrl, and
much of Ern AR for Saturday. In these locations, Apparent T`s may
reach or exceed 105 degrees if rain can hold off long enough in
these locations. Additional heat headlines may be needed for Sunday
for at least portions of the CWA.

Relief from the heat will be short lived as the aforementioned ridge
quickly retrogrades and expands back into the region. A return of
well above average temperatures are likely across the Srn MS Valley
over a several day period through the middle-to-late next week owing
to H500 596-599 decameter heights centered nearly overtop the
region. Assuming some locations see little to no precipitation over
the weekend, these locations would be most susceptible to
reaching/exceeding triple digit temperatures. Heat headlines will
likely be needed through much of next week over a large part if not
all of the state.

Utilizing probabilistic guidance data, Monday through Wednesday
appear be the hottest days through the week. Currently, the
probability of high temperatures reaching or exceeding 100 F stands
between 40%-75% across the AR River Valley, portions of Cntrl into
much of Ern AR.

Changes could arrive late in the period as the upper level ridge
slides Wwrd. This pattern would favor NWrly flow over some of the
region. Long range guidance even hints at a back door frontal
boundary moving towards the state on Friday. This would bring an
increase in PoPs and possibly N/NErly winds to portions of N and NE
AR. This is still a week out so we will have to wait and see if the
frontal boundary could have any influence on greater AR weather.
Until then, hot weather will prevail.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period. Widely
scattered showers will be possible during the afternoon hours as
a weak upper level disturbance passes to the south of the region.
Winds will generally be light and from the south to southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     93  76  93  77 /  40  20  30   0
Camden AR         91  73  95  74 /  50  40  10   0
Harrison AR       90  73  89  74 /  40  20  40   0
Hot Springs AR    93  75  94  75 /  60  40  30   0
Little Rock   AR  94  76  95  77 /  50  30  20   0
Monticello AR     93  76  96  77 /  40  30  10   0
Mount Ida AR      91  74  92  74 /  60  30  30   0
Mountain Home AR  90  74  89  74 /  40  10  50   0
Newport AR        94  77  95  78 /  30  20  30   0
Pine Bluff AR     93  75  95  77 /  40  20  10   0
Russellville AR   93  76  93  76 /  50  30  30   0
Searcy AR         94  75  95  75 /  40  30  20   0
Stuttgart AR      93  76  95  77 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ007-008-016-017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-054>057-062>065-
067>069-121>123-130-138-230-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...56