881
FXUS64 KLZK 061041
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
541 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

-A much cooler day is in store for the Natural State as the cold front
 has nearly completely the journey from north to south across the
 state.

-High temperatures on Saturday will range statewide from the low 70s
 to the low 80s.

-A trend of below average temperatures will continue into Monday across
 the state before temperatures overall gradually increase to
 seasonal averages by mid-week and a few degrees above average by
 late-week.

-After the rain and isolated storms from late Friday night/early Saturday
 morning exits the state completely by mid-day on Saturday, no
 chances for any rainfall are forecast over the next 7 days.

&&

.CURRENTLY...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

As of 2 AM CDT, a cold front is positioned across Arkansas from
south of Texarkana to south of Camden to Monticello to near Kelso. A
complex of strong thunderstorms remain across far southern Arkansas
with sub-severe hail and sub-severe winds. All this activity is
expected to exit the state by mid-day on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

In the upper lvls, the digging trof positioned over the Mid-South
will eject northeastward into the Eastern region of the CONUS. A
transitions to northwesterly flow over Arkansas is expected into
early next week before an upper lvl ridge begins to build over the
region.

At the sfc, a cold front continues to slowly sag south and will be
nearing the Arkansas/Louisiana border by sunrise on Saturday. In the
wake of this FROPA will be a region of sfc high pressure that will
move into region and supply the state with temperatures of roughly 8
to 10 degrees below average compared to normals for this time of the
year which will be felt on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Into mid-
week, temperatures overall aided by a combination of east-
southeasterly winds at the sfc and the upper lvl ridge moving into
place over Arkansas will lead to efficient WAA that will place
temperatures back to seasonal normals for this time of the year.
Finally, by late-week, temperatures will continue to gradually
increase becoming a few degrees above average for this time of the
year. A concern looking ahead over the next seven days is the lack
of rain chances across the state. Arkansas will be entering a period
of warming temperatures into the workweek combined with no chances
for precipitation over at least the next week. Drought conditions
may begin to worsen if this becomes a trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

For the first few hours of the forecast period, expect SHRA to be
exiting the state and most terminals across Arkansas. The northern
sites of KHRO and KBPK will remain in VFR for the forecast period.
However, the western, central, and southeastern terminals will see
degraded flight category as low as IFR for lowered CIGS which will
be present across the central and southern portions of Arkansas.
VSBY will drop briefly at these terminals as well for the first few
hours of the forecast to MVFR flight category. Expect central sites
to return to VFR and remain VFR later Saturday morning, but the
southeastern terminals will not return to VFR flight category until
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     77  53  85  52 /  40   0   0   0
Camden AR         74  59  83  55 /  50  10   0   0
Harrison AR       76  52  80  52 /  30   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    74  57  83  56 /  40   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  74  57  82  56 /  30   0   0   0
Monticello AR     75  60  85  58 /  50  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      73  56  82  56 /  40   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  79  51  84  52 /  30   0   0   0
Newport AR        77  53  84  51 /  40   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     74  56  83  55 /  40   0   0   0
Russellville AR   78  56  85  57 /  30   0   0   0
Searcy AR         76  54  84  53 /  40   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      75  56  83  55 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74