Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
464 FXUS64 KLZK 120430 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1030 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 -Widespread freezing conditions Tuesday morning. -Gusty southwest winds expected through the day Tuesday, with sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph, and gusts in excess of 30 to 35 mph. -Mainly dry and warming conditions will persist through the week, with temperatures moderating back to the mid 70s by Friday. -Rain chances could return to the forecast area by the weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 08Z sfc obs showed area temps in the mid 20s to low 30s, with another widespread freeze underway. This wl be the last night of freezing temps thru the remainder of the fcst PD, as daily temp trends moderate upwards the next several days. Thru the day today, SWrly winds wl resume, w/ temps quickly warming into the low 60s. Of note, wl be a strong sfc pres gradient moving acrs the state, and driving turbulent condns, w/ fcst winds of 20 to 25 mph, and gusts near 30 to 35 mph, particularly over the MS River Delta region and NErn AR. Have gone forward with a Wind Advisory for portions of NErn AR this afternoon as such. For the remainder of the week, warming daily temps and dry/settled wx condns are fcst, w/ mean Ern US troughing and Wrn US ridging keeping upper-lvl subsidence in place over the Srn Cntrl US. A pattern change is still possible by the weekend, w/ Chc PoPs returning to the fcst as early as Sun, though better widespread chances are now more prevalent during the Mon-Tues timeframe. Uncertainties remain in the extended term, with dProg/dT`s of H500 flow largely variable during the Sun-Tues timeframe. As is now being advertised by the latest runs of deterministic GFS/ECMWF guidance, fcst H500 troughing moving acrs the Cntrl US is now more lagged...previously through the Sat-Sun timeframe...and is now w/in the Mon-Tues timeframe. W/ mean low-lvl Srly flow, modest moisture return is still expected prior to the arrival of the aforementioned trof. More widespread and higher Chc PoPs are included for much of the state thru Mon-Tues of next week, including some thunderstorms. However, greater details on any hazardous weather potential remains uncertain. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 All TAF sites are expected to remain in VFR flight category for the duration of the forecast period from early Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning. Low level wind shear will be present across all terminals from the beginning of the forecast through Wednesday morning around sunrise. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 61 41 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 64 44 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 66 41 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 64 41 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 62 44 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 61 46 72 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 67 43 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 64 38 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 58 41 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 63 44 70 47 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 67 39 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 61 39 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 61 43 68 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...74