000
FXUS64 KLZK 212349
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
549 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

As a cold front pushes south across the state today, high
temperatures across northern portions of the state are maxing out in
the lower to mid 50s (a bit below the climatological average), while
high temperatures elsewhere in the state are closer to seasonal
averages, in the lower to upper 60s.

Breezy north-northwest flow is in place as upper ridging and High
pressure builds across the region. Wind gusts between 25-30 mph will
continue across roughly the northern half of the state through the
evening hours Thursday. The High center over the GoM will move east
of the area Saturday, and low-level flow will shift out of the
southwest.

Areas of frost are likely during the early morning hours across
portions of the state Friday and Saturday, as below-average
temperatures are forecast to dip into the upper 20s to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 204 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

By Saturday night into early next week mid-level flow will become
more zonal with the western ridge shifting more eastward toward the
middle of the country. At the sfc, ridging will shift southeast away
from the state which will bring a return of low level S-SW flow.
Temperatures will warm to above normal values and moisture will
increase Sun-Mon.

A new H500 cyclone is expected to move east along the US/CA border
across the Great Lakes from Mon-Tue with its accompanying trough
extending south toward AR. At the sfc a cold front will move into
the state from the north and rain is expected to return to the
forecast. While temperatures will be warm ahead of this system, as
sfc ridging builds in from the NW temperatures will cool back down.
Southern parts of the state could see temperatures remain a bit
warmer.

Additional chances for rain will be seen at the end of the period as
more systems traverse the W-SW flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

A few/scattered clouds may build into Nrn terminals near daybreak,
otherwise mainly SKC will prevail resulting in VFR conds through
the period. Winds will be light and variable overnight, remaining
light out of the NW around 10 kts or less on Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     33  54  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         30  60  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       29  52  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    35  59  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  36  57  37  63 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     36  58  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      32  61  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  31  52  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        33  54  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     34  57  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   32  59  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         32  56  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      34  55  36  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CST Friday for ARZ052>055-062-
063-066>068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...70