154
FXUS64 KLZK 181227
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
627 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 256 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

-Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances across the
 northern portions of Arkansas early this morning

-Well above normal temperatures today and tomorrow, with some
 areas nearing record high temperature territory

-Mainly beneficial rains anticipated across the Natural State late
 this week, with the bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity
 Thursday and Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Some isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms have developed
across mainly southern Missouri early this morning, with some
potential that a few storms could develop across northern Arkansas
over the next several hours. CAM`s show some spotty showers and
storms possible along the cold front extending from the surface
low pressure currently centered over eastern NE mainly late today
and into this evening across mainly northern and eastern Arkansas
as the front exits east of the state tonight. Otherwise, very warm
temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal will challenge daily
record highs for some locations today and extending into tomorrow.

The anticipated weather disturbance set to impact the region later
this week continues to slow as the associated shortwave trough
aloft continues to delay progression eastward across the Plains
through the middle of the week. As the details become more clear
with timing and amounts, the impacts associated with this event
seemingly continue to decrease as storm total rainfall likewise is
decreasing. The warm front that will usher in enhanced lower level
moisture in from the southwest will spread northward across the
region on Wednesday, but the dynamical support for any shower or
thunderstorm activity will delay more into the early Thursday
timeframe, prior to the main cold frontal passage across the state
late Thursday into Friday.

Taking a glance at the latest rainfall amounts, most likely
(higher end) storm totals Wednesday through Friday remain around
1.00" (1-2"), with higher amounts of 2-3" (3-5") for western
Arkansas. Contrast with this outlook with the previous 24-48
hours, the most likely and higher end storm total amounts have
come down around 2". Thus, as guidance has come into better
agreement for this event, the downtrend in rainfall amounts for
the region suggest a beneficial rainfall event for the Natural
State as soils will be receptive and not cause excessive runoff as
the heaviest rains move through. However, any areas (which would
favor western Arkansas) that receive multiple heavy
thunderstorms/downpours in a short period would pose a low flash
flood threat.

Once the rainfall clears the area going into this weekend, another
amplifying ridge seems favored as another Pacific trough deepens
across the West Coast. There remains modest uncertainty on how
progressive this trough will be moving through the weekend and
early next week, but should the cutoff scenario come to fruition,
expect building high pressure and dry conditions through at least
this weekend. Whenever the Pacific trough ejects eastward, we can
expect another round of rain, but that might not be well into
next week as current projections suggests at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

MVFR ceilings have developed across portions of central to
southern Arkansas this morning. These lowered ceilings should
linger into late this morning before improving throughout the
afternoon. Low level wind shear will be present for the first few
hours of the forecast at the northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK
in addition to the central site of KLIT. Surface winds will gust
in excess of 25 knots across all terminals between later Tuesday
morning into Tuesday evening before the gusting conditions begin
to subside.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     80  55  77  56 /  10   0   0  50
Camden AR         80  62  81  63 /  10   0   0  30
Harrison AR       79  49  73  57 /   0   0  10  60
Hot Springs AR    79  60  81  63 /  10  10  10  50
Little Rock   AR  79  61  79  62 /  10   0   0  40
Monticello AR     82  64  83  63 /  10   0   0  20
Mount Ida AR      81  59  82  63 /  10  10  10  60
Mountain Home AR  81  50  72  55 /  10   0   0  60
Newport AR        79  58  76  60 /  10  10   0  40
Pine Bluff AR     80  63  82  63 /  10  10   0  30
Russellville AR   83  55  79  61 /  10   0  10  60
Searcy AR         79  58  78  59 /  10  10   0  40
Stuttgart AR      79  63  80  62 /  10  10   0  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...77