066
FXUS64 KLZK 232322
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
522 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Latest satellite imagery indicates scattered cirrus across the
state this afternoon.  Surface observations indicate temperatures
again above normal for late November.

A high pressure axis analyzed from eastern Texas to to eastern Iowa
will move eastward early in this period.  The resulting southerly
low flow will promote warmer, and well above normal temperatures
for Sunday.

On Monday, a cold front will approach from the northwest.  Forecast
soundings suggest limited moisture and instability will be
available when the front approaches, which should limit overall
convective potential.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Not a lot of value added changes have been made to the forecast as
the latest guidance has not really waivered that much from previous
solutions. Overall a rather progressive pattern is expected with
some chances of precipitation, mainly centered on Thanksgiving day.

Period initiates with upper low traversing the US/Canadian border.
Associated frontal boundary and its associated wind shift will be
clearing the far SE corner of the CWA. Any lingering precipitation
with this boundary will quick exit off to the east. Cooler air will
follow this boundary but temperatures will still be approaching
seasonal averages.

Surface high pressure will provide a dry Tuesday but will quickly
move off to the east by late Wednesday as yet another shortwave
approaches in the broad cyclonic flow. Guidance indicates surface
low pressure developing over central Oklahoma and moving off to the
NE through the holiday, latched on to another frontal boundary.

Rain chances over the north can not be discounted late Wednesday but
the best chances of precipitation appear to be Wednesday night
through midday Thursday with widespread showers expected. Pattern is
not very favorable for thunderstorms but a few rumbles of thunder
can never be ruled out. Pattern does also not appear to be favorable
for any type of winter weather but it would not be surprising if a
few flakes of snow are observed early Thanksgiving morning.

Rainfall amounts will not be excessive with most areas seeing a
quarter of an inch of rain or less. The remainder of the period does
appear to be dry but a developing ridge along the west coast will
result in a pronounced NW aloft over the region. Temperatures will
actually drop to below average levels from Thanksgiving and beyond
with surface high pressure largely dominating although some subtle
shortwave features are still seen.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR conds are expected through period however mid/high clouds will
increase in coverage through the day on Sun. Wind shear is
anticipated at Wrn and Nrn sites overnight, which should diminish
during the day on Sun once surface winds and gusts increase. SW
winds may gust up to 15-25 kts on Sun afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     41  68  56  68 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         40  73  59  76 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       44  68  51  60 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    43  72  60  72 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  43  72  60  72 /   0   0   0  20
Monticello AR     43  72  60  76 /   0   0   0  20
Mount Ida AR      43  72  58  71 /   0   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  42  68  53  62 /   0   0  10  10
Newport AR        40  68  58  71 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     41  72  59  76 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   42  72  58  70 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         38  69  56  71 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      41  70  60  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...70