310
FXUS64 KLZK 040517 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1217 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

+ Temperatures and humidity will increase throughout the week with
high temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s expected across most of
Arkansas.

+ Into mid-week, temperatures will remain warm and humid conditions
will remain, but cloud cover will increase with the approach of cold
front that will become stalled out over northwestern Arkansas.

+ An unsettled pattern will take hold across Arkansas from mid-week
through the beginning of next week with multiple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms expected. Flash flooding and river flooding
potential will continued to be monitored closely, especially over
this period where the opportunity will exist to see several
consecutive days of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

THIS EVENING (TUESDAY EVENING)/WEDNESDAY:

In the upper lvls, a ridge will remain in place over the
Southeastern region of the CONUS with continued southwesterly flow
over Arkansas. At the sfc, a cold front continues to slowly approach
the state from the northwest.

Expect rain and isolated thunderstorm chances to increase later this
evening across northwestern Arkansas and those chances will increase
across the northwestern half of the state during the day on
Wednesday.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY:

In the upper lvls, the ridge over the Southeastern region of the
CONUS will break down and a different area of elongated ridging will
take shape over Louisiana, Texas, and New Mexico. In response, zonal
flow will be present over Arkansas with several shortwaves which are
progged to pass through the flow pattern between Thursday and
Sunday. At the sfc, the cold front that is currently on approach to
northwestern Arkansas will become a stationary boundary become nearly
completely stalled, but meandering from northern Arkansas into
southern Missouri between Thursday and Sunday as the zonal flow
pattern aloft will assist in keeping this boundary at the sfc nearly
cemented across the region.

Into Monday, upper lvl northwesterly flow will return over Arkansas
as the elongated upper lvl ridge retrogrades back to the west and a
second amplified ridge becomes positioned over the Western region of
the CONUS. Into the latter part of the weekend and on Monday, a cold
front will near Arkansas and move through the state during the day
on Monday and a region of sfc high pressure will occupy the airmass
behind the cold front which should provide the CWA and majority of
the state of Arkansas with a completely dry day which will be much
appreciated by next Tuesday.

Expect multiple waves of rain and thunderstorm activity across
Arkansas during this period. A nearly stationary boundary will keep
POP chances increased across the CWA and most of Arkansas.
Additionally, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has outlined a 15%
chance of severe weather across the CWA on Friday and Saturday as
the current pattern is supportive of the development of an MCS to
the west of the CWA which will move eastward into the CWA and
Arkansas providing an opportunity for severe weather on both days.
Specifics regarding the potential for severe weather on Friday and
Saturday will become ironed out in future forecast packages
with relation to location, timing, and hazards.

A second threat with higher confidence over this period that will
likely become an issue, especially across portions of northern,
northwestern, and west-central Arkansas will be rainfall totals
through Sunday evening which may range from 3 to 5+ inches of total
rainfall between this evening and Sunday evening. Probabilistic data
is also supportive of significant rainfall totals over these
locations as latest guidance over this period indicates a 30% to 50%
chance of rainfall totals of 2 inches or more which is a significant
indicator of confidence this far in advance of a decent rainfall
event. Flash flooding will likely be a concern over this period as
well as river flooding that will likely become an issue for area
rivers or prolong river flooding which is already in progress. It
is important to remember that you may experience significant river
rises even in locations that may not see the highest rainfall
totals as water moves into a location from upstream where higher
rainfall totals occurred.

Temperatures over this period will remain near to slightly above
average compared to early June normals for this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Periods of MVFR cigs/vsby may be seen across N AR terminals
through the period with generally VFR conditions expected to
persist elsewhere. Winds will be srly up to 10 kts through most of
the daytime hours with winds decreasing after sunset. Isolated to
scattered showers/storms will be possible through Wednesday
evening, mainly across portions of W and N AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     87  70  84  71 /  30  20  50  10
Camden AR         89  71  90  71 /  10   0  20   0
Harrison AR       79  67  81  67 /  70  10  40  30
Hot Springs AR    87  70  88  71 /  30  10  20   0
Little Rock   AR  88  72  89  73 /  20  10  20  10
Monticello AR     90  73  91  74 /  10   0  30   0
Mount Ida AR      85  70  86  70 /  40  10  20  10
Mountain Home AR  81  67  81  68 /  70  30  50  20
Newport AR        88  72  86  72 /  20  20  40  10
Pine Bluff AR     89  72  90  73 /  10  10  20   0
Russellville AR   85  71  86  71 /  40  10  30  10
Searcy AR         88  70  87  71 /  20  10  30  10
Stuttgart AR      88  73  89  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...67