059
FXUS64 KLZK 150702
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
202 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Scattered showers/storms expected Wednesday

- Damaging winds and isolated flash flood the main concerns

- Ridge of high pressure moves back into the region this weekend

- Hot and humid conditions return by the weekend into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were ongoing during the
early morning hours on Wednesday. Remaining activity was mainly
concentrated over portions of Nrn AR, elsewhere skies were mostly
cloudy. Temps ranged from the lower to middle 70s. As long as mid
and high clouds linger, fog should stay isolated. If pockets of
clearing skies develop before sunrise, fog may develop in the
absence of sufficient vertical mixing, RH values near 100 percent,
and recent rainfall from earlier in the afternoon and evening
hours from Tuesday.

Looking locally, an upper level low was situated over the ArkLaTex
region wedged to the S of an expansive and stout upper ridge parked
over the Cntrl Plains/Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes and OH River
Valleys. The expansive ridge to our N is responsible for background
clockwise flow over the region. Within this flow regime, the upper
and near surface low (H925) is anticipated to retrograde into TX
over the next day to day and a half. Resultant showers/storms should
move E to W or NE to SW, similar in fashion to what was observed on
Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm activity on Wednesday is expected
to become most widespread during the late morning and early
afternoon hours correlated with peak diurnal heating. Damaging winds
and isolated instances of flash flooding would be the main concerns
with the strongest of storms. Due to anticipated clouds and precip,
highs on Wednesday are only expected to climb into the upper 70s to
upper 80, i.e. slightly below average for the date. Lingering
convection may carryover into Wednesday night but should decrease in
coverage and intensity with loss of daytime heating.

Heading in Thursday, PoPs may linger over portions of Nrn AR during
the afternoon, otherwise a drying pattern is in store across the
Natural State going forward. Temps will begin to modify.

The large scale pattern should feature a dissipating upper low over
W TX (our former storm system), with expansive ridging building in
over the nations mid section through late week. Ern periphery of the
upper ridge will reside over the region by the weekend with surface
high pressure situated over the Srn MS Valley. By early next week,
upper flow will be NWrly locally on said Ern flank of the ridge. At
this time, do not see much indication of shortwave activity or upper
level impulses propagating within NWrly flow across the region
however this will be monitored for future rain/storm chances. We
could be looking at a cold front approaching by mid week but details
are not known at this time. Temp wise, readings will climb back into
the 90s, reaching the mid and upper 90s by the weekend into next
early next week. Probabilities of high temp reaching or exceeding
100 stands at 30-50 percent on Monday and Tuesday spanning from the
AR River Valley, into portions of Cntrl AR, into portions of E and
NE AR. Excess ground moisture may work to prevent temps reaching
100 across Cntrl/Ern half of AR, nonetheless it will be hot and
humid during this time. Heat headlines may return by early next
week once the upper ridge and surface high take hold of the
weather pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Expecting VFR conds to become MVFR CIGs overnight at all terminals.
Sct SHRA/TSRA is anticipated across Nrn sites through roughly
daybreak. Anticipating CIGs to lift (back to VFR) on Wed with
another round of late morning into afternoon SHRA/TSRA developing.
Precip should affect all sites. Winds on Wed should be Wrly at
around 10 kts or less. Precip activity should begin to diminish
after sunset from S to N across AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     85  70  88  72 /  70  30  40   0
Camden AR         85  69  91  71 /  60  20   0   0
Harrison AR       82  68  84  70 /  70  30  50   0
Hot Springs AR    83  70  90  72 /  60  20  10   0
Little Rock   AR  84  71  90  74 /  60  20  10   0
Monticello AR     86  71  92  73 /  60  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      82  68  88  70 /  60  20  10   0
Mountain Home AR  82  69  84  70 /  70  30  50  10
Newport AR        86  72  89  73 /  70  30  40   0
Pine Bluff AR     84  70  91  72 /  50  10  10   0
Russellville AR   85  71  90  72 /  70  20  20   0
Searcy AR         85  70  89  72 /  80  20  10   0
Stuttgart AR      84  72  90  74 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70