409
FXUS64 KLZK 032351
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
651 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night )
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

18z subjective surface analysis indicates a stationary boundary from
De Witt, to near Texarkana. Elevated convection continues to slowly
increase in coverage and intensity to the north of the surface
boundary. Near term forecast soundings generously support severe
thunderstorms through the late evening hours.  A very large hail
threat exists to the north of the boundary, with all hazards
possible near and to the south of the boundary.

As mentioned in previous discussions the boundary will lift
northward slightly early in this forecast period.  Energy in a
parallel (to the surface boundary) southwesterly flow will interact
with the surface boundary through the period, and will promote
several rounds of efficient, excessive rainfall.

This rainfall will promote high impact conditions, with flash
flooding and severe thunderstorms prevailing in the short term,
and river flooding prevailing after the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A cold front will move southeast through the state early Sunday. Dry
and cool conditions are expected early in the period, with freezing
temperatures possible Sunday night in the north.  A rapid warming is
expected during the period, with well above normal temperatures
expected late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Copious amounts of moisture continue to stream into the region
with a frontal boundary stalled out across the state. The front
will be the focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms
through the TAF period. MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail
through the period. Winds will be gusty at times and direction
will change often as the front wobbles across the TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     54  78  61  68 /  90  90  90 100
Camden AR         66  84  67  76 /  80  80  80 100
Harrison AR       49  66  52  56 /  60 100 100 100
Hot Springs AR    57  81  63  71 /  90  90  90 100
Little Rock   AR  59  82  66  74 /  90  80  90 100
Monticello AR     71  86  71  80 /  60  70  60 100
Mount Ida AR      56  79  60  69 /  80  90 100 100
Mountain Home AR  50  68  54  59 /  70 100 100 100
Newport AR        55  81  64  70 / 100  90  90 100
Pine Bluff AR     65  84  69  77 /  80  80  70 100
Russellville AR   54  78  60  67 /  80  90 100 100
Searcy AR         55  81  63  72 /  90  80  90 100
Stuttgart AR      63  83  70  76 /  90  70  80 100

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...56