889
FXUS64 KLZK 221733
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1133 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 304 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

A strong upper low is expected to be over the east coast today with
an upper ridge building over the Rockies. The upper low moves
offshore Saturday as the upper ridge spreads across much of the
country.

A Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9 am this morning for
parts of southern Arkansas. Surface high pressure will be over
Arkansas today through Saturday and begins moving east of the
state Saturday night. As a result, winds will be lighter today and
the coldest temperatures will be this morning. On Saturday, winds
will become southerly and bring warmer temperatures.

High temperatures today will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s and in
the upper 50s to mid 60s Saturday. Lows tonight will be in the upper
20s to the mid 30s and in the upper 30s to mid 40s Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Main message of the long term fcst remains a brief warm up trending
towards cooler and more seasonal condns by mid-week next week. Early
on in the PD, upper flow wl be somewhat perturbed w/ Cntrl US weak
ridging enclosed by progressive troughing over the Pac-N/W and N/Ern
US. Quasi-zonal to S/Wrly upper flow over the Rockies wl be leading
to developing sfc cyclonic flow invof Cntrl Plains on Sun and into
Mon. Thru this timeframe, a lobe of the aforementioned Pac-N/W trof
is progged to eject into the mean flow, and quickly deepen into a
compact shortwave trof over the Cntrl US, moving into juxtaposition
w/ sfc-based cyclonic flow. This should lead to the sfc low quickly
advancing N/Ewrd fm the Cntrl Plains into the Midwest and Great
Lakes region on Mon. Locally, temps wl be trending upwards, though a
quick airmass change is fcst, w/ readings to the south of an
attendant cdfrnt possibly reaching the upper 70s over the Srn half
of the state on Mon. This cdfrnt is progged to quickly move thru the
state during the later portion of Mon, w/ incrsg PoPs mainly
confined to the Ern half of the FA Mon aftn/evng.

Tues, and thru the remainder of the PD, more seasonal temps wl be in
place over the region, w/ sfc high pressure settling in, though dry
condns do not look to stay for long. Another region of sfc cyclonic
flow is progged to quickly develop and move thru the Srn Plains
under intermittent locally zonal upper flow, encapsulated by a
larger long wave troughing pattern w/ multiple embedded shortwave
perturbations. Area-wide rain chances look to resume again as early
as Wed, and continue into Thanksgiving Day as the nose of this next
developing sfc low advances into the FA, coming into phase w/
another ejecting upper shortwave. Despite cooler air being in place
and a somewhat favorable synoptic pattern fcst, it looks like much
of the region wl be seeing a cold rain thru Thanksgiving Day, though
wl cont to monitor for any winter wx potential as we head into next
week. Beyond the long term PD and into early December, long-range
ensemble guidance remains indicative of locally colder condns on the
horizon, consistent w/ the most recent CPC temp outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through much of the period. Lowered
visibility during the early morning hours may cause MVFR
conditions for a few hours early Saturday, mainly across north-
central, central and southern portions of the CWA. Winds will be
light and variable for the most part, but the general direction
will shift from northerly to southerly Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     54  33  60  41 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         60  33  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       52  33  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    59  36  63  42 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  57  38  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     58  37  65  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      61  33  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  52  32  60  43 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        54  34  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     57  34  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   58  34  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         55  34  60  38 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      55  36  62  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...71