106
FXUS64 KLZK 042324
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
624 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Latest surface analysis indicates a warm front from just south of
Fort Smith,..to Conway, to just south of Jonesboro. KLZK radar
indicates developing convection across the western two thirds of the
forecast area, with the stronger activity located north of the warm
front.

18z KLZK and KSHV soundings indicate well developed hodographs,
supportive of low level rotation support, as well as very unstable
condtions. Some capping is left in the KLZK sounding. Energy in a
southwest upper level flow will continue to approach, and will
support additional convective development. All hazards are
possible near and to the south of the warm front through the
evening hours.

Several more rounds of convection will occur overnight and on
Saturday, as several waves move through the southwesterly flow. Cell
training will be likely during this period, contributing to the
flash flooding potential.

By late Saturday, a cold front will move eastward through the
forecast area, and will bring the heavy rainfall ahead of it and
east of the state.  Light rain associated with an approaching upper
level low will affect the mid south on Sunday, before ending late in
the day.

A clear sky, light wind field, and near freezing temperatures will
promote frost formation conditions across the north Sunday night and
early Monday morning.

Dry conditions, and a warming trend is expected Tuesday through
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Previous forecast philosophy remains intact for this cycle. MVFR
conditions will prevail overall during this period. Coverage of
SHRA/TSRA across the forecast area should be greater than 50% at
most times during this forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     78  54  65  43 /  90 100 100  90
Camden AR         84  68  77  49 /  80  70 100  90
Harrison AR       67  46  51  36 / 100 100 100  90
Hot Springs AR    78  59  69  45 /  90 100 100  90
Little Rock   AR  81  62  72  47 /  90  90 100 100
Monticello AR     87  72  81  52 /  60  50  90 100
Mount Ida AR      76  56  65  44 /  90 100 100  90
Mountain Home AR  68  48  53  38 / 100 100 100  90
Newport AR        80  59  69  46 /  90 100 100 100
Pine Bluff AR     84  67  77  49 /  70  60 100 100
Russellville AR   75  53  64  43 /  90 100 100  90
Searcy AR         80  58  70  45 /  90  90 100 100
Stuttgart AR      83  66  76  49 /  70  70 100 100

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55