715
FXUS64 KLZK 250925
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
325 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 323 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

On the early mrng weather map, a cold front was situated just to the
northwest of AR, generally along the I-44 corridor. South winds ahead
of the front resulted in a mild mrng acrs the Natural State. Predawn
readings ranged fm the mid 50s to the mid 60s.

The aforementioned front move acrs AR today, eventually pushed to
the southeast of the state this evening. Clouds wl incrs along and
ahead of the front. Cannot rule out a few showers along the front
later this aftn, acrs southeast AR. Otherwise, a noted wind shift
will accompany the FROPA.

Expect a decent warmup in advance of the bndry today, with highs in
the 70s. Post-fntl temps wl show a steady or slowly falling trend as
the day progresses. Colder and drier wl advect into the FA tngt, as
sfc high pres settles into the region.

Lows tngt wl drop below freezing over much of northern and parts of
west-central AR, with mid 30s to lower 40s elsewhere. Highs on Tue
wl be mainly in the 50s. The airmass wl begin to modify Tue night as
the sfc highs shifts eastward, allowing south/southeast winds to
return.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Colder condns are expected to define the long term fcst PD. The PD
begins under under intermittent locally zonal upper flow,
encapsulated by a larger long wave troughing pattern w/ multiple
embedded shortwave perturbations. Deepening lee sfc cyclonic flow wl
be moving acrs the Srn Plains, and nosing into the FA thru the day
on Wed.

Rain chances should begin to incrs over the Ern half of the state
overnight Wed night, as an attendant cdfrnt is progged to sweep thru
the region, further invigorated by a progressive shortwave
perturbation pivoting thru the upper mean flow. Precip chcs wl
remain prevalent thru the day Thurs, mostly for the Ern half of the
state. Despite cooler air being ushered into the region, a cold rain
should remain the primary precip type on Thanksgiving Day.

Thurs into Fri, colder air from a Canadian continental airmass is
fcst to be ushered into the Srn Plains Fri, following the
aforementioned cdfrnt passage. Most recent suite of GEFS/EPS
ensemble mean guidance remains indicative of significantly negative
anomalous H500 troughing and H850 temps over the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes. Corresponding sfc temp progs amongst GEFS/EPS ensemble
mean data, 25/00Z GFS/ECMWF deterministic data, and blended NBM
guidance are also indicative of cooler than normal daily high and
low temps thru the end of the month and into early December.

Regarding freezing condns, most of the state has now seen a freeze
or frost, and/or has concluded the growing season. Nevertheless,
area-wide freezing condns wl be possible as early as Fri mrng (Nov
29), and are expected to persist thru the end of the PD (Mon Dec 2),
and into early next week. Cntrl to Nrn AR is progged to see hard
freezes (low temps of 28F or less) thru this cold snap, and Srn AR
could see a hard freeze by Mon mrng (Dec 2), and again on Tues mrng
(Dec 3).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

A cold front was located acrs southwest MO and northeast OK. The
bndry wl pass thru AR by Mon evening. MVFR ceilings are expected
to dvlp along and behind the FROPA, along with a wind shift to the
west/northwest. Kept VCSH in for KPBF and KLLQ as a few showers are
possible Mon aftn. Clouds wl clear fm the northwest later in the PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  33  54  37 /  10   0   0   0
Camden AR         76  39  61  42 /  10   0   0   0
Harrison AR       57  28  54  38 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    70  38  58  42 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  72  38  57  42 /  10   0   0   0
Monticello AR     77  43  60  44 /  20  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      69  34  59  41 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  59  30  53  37 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        70  34  53  37 /  20   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     75  39  58  41 /  20   0   0   0
Russellville AR   68  34  58  40 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         71  34  54  37 /  10   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      73  38  56  41 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...44