614
FXUS64 KLZK 101741 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1241 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

-Slightly cooler temperatures expected across northern Arkansas
 over the next few days

-Coverage of showers and storms will increase from north to south
 through Friday as a front moves across the state

-A few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon and
 evening, mainly across the northern half of Arkansas

-An upper level ridge becomes re-established over Arkansas next
 week leading to additional hot weather with occasional chances
 for showers and thunderstorms

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

As of 2 AM CDT, latest regional reflectivity depicts a scattered
complex of thunderstorms extending from north-central Oklahoma to
southeastern Kansas to central Missouri. This complex of
thunderstorms will continue to track east-southeastward overall
ahead of an advancing cold front.

Current CAMS trajectory has a complex of shower and thunderstorm
activity progged to begin impacting northern Arkansas by midday. In
locations in which cloud cover and/or rain cooled air has reached a
location, a noted decrease in high temperatures will be noted across
portions of northern Arkansas; however in locations where storms are
not anticipated until later in the day, high temperatures will once
again peak in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat index values
across portions of central and eastern Arkansas are expected to
reach between 105 and 109 degrees warranting the issuance of a Heat
Advisory.

A Marginal Risk of severe weather will be present between this
afternoon and into the evening hours across the northwestern half of
Arkansas. A moderately unstable airmass with MLCAPE between 1,500
and 2,500 J/kg via daytime heating may yield a few instances of
severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts.

Chances for additional rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible
on Friday as the cold front is expected to stall as a stationary
front near the Arkansas/Louisiana border.

Rainfall totals over this two-day period look to favor much of
northern Arkansas and parts of western Arkansas per the latest suite
of 00Z guidance. Expect scattered areas to over-perform and under-
preform across the state depending on where the strongest or most
efficient rain-producing convection sets up.

Into the latter portion of the weekend and early next week, the
upper level ridge will build back over Arkansas, but quickly by mid-
week move eastward over the Southeastern region of the CONUS by an
approaching series of shortwaves over Arkansas via northwesterly
flow which will increase PoP chances and end triple digit
temperatures across the state over this period bringing a bout of
relief that will hopefully stick around beyond the forecast period
of mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions will persist at most terminals through the evening
hours with some reduction in cigs/vsby occurring overnight.
As a front sinks south, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop across northern Arkansas this afternoon
and will slowly expand southward across the area through the
morning hours Friday. This will lead to MVFR and lower conditions
at affected terminals. Precip may decrease in coverage between
12z and 18z Friday, but some reduced cigs may persist. Sfc winds
will remain variable in direction through the period with
sustained winds generally less than 10 kts. A few storms could
produce strong/erratic wind gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  90  70  96 /  80  70  20  20
Camden AR         71  95  70  96 /  10  40  30  10
Harrison AR       68  85  68  91 /  80  70  20  20
Hot Springs AR    72  91  70  95 /  40  50  20  10
Little Rock   AR  73  92  73  95 /  30  60  30  20
Monticello AR     74  95  72  94 /   0  40  20  30
Mount Ida AR      69  90  67  95 /  50  60  10  20
Mountain Home AR  68  85  67  93 /  80  70  20  10
Newport AR        71  91  71  95 /  60  40  20  20
Pine Bluff AR     72  94  70  94 /  10  40  30  20
Russellville AR   70  89  70  95 /  60  70  20  10
Searcy AR         71  91  70  95 /  40  40  20  20
Stuttgart AR      73  95  73  96 /  20  40  30  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ025-031>034-039-
043>047-055>057-064-065.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...67