194
FXUS64 KLZK 181725
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Scattered showers/storms possible Sat/Sun, mainly in the PM

- Dangerous heat/humidity returns this weekend into mid week

- Heat advisories are in effect Sat/Sun over Cntrl/Ern Arkansas;
  additional heat headlines will likely be needed early/mid week

- Frontal boundary may bring a cool down mid to late week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Conds were tranquil across AR on this Saturday morning. Scattered
showers and storms will be possible once again today over mainly
NW/Nrn AR associated with low-level moisture ejecting out from an
upper low situated over SW TX. Elsewhere, conds should be partly
cloudy to mostly clear.

Highs today are expected to top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Heat index values should be near or above 105 degrees over
Cntrl/Ern AR, thus the issuance of heat advisory across these
locations. Very similar conds are anticipated on Sunday regarding
rain chances and locations. Highs may top out a couple degrees
hotter with temps climbing into the mid and upper 90s. Heat index
values are expected to range from 105 to 110 degrees on Sunday
over Cntrl/Ern AR, therefore a heat advisory encompasses the same
areas as on Saturday.

Near the surface, high pressure should be positioned along the Nrn
Gulf Coast providing SW to Wrly winds to the state through mid week.
Temps and moisture will build in the absence of cloud cover and
dwindling afternoon rain chances. AR is anticipated to reside on the
Ern fringes of an upper ridge by middle part of the week (NW flow
aloft) which could allow for a backdoor cold front on Wednesday.
Given this, temps should be cooler over the NE half of AR on
Wednesday afternoon and cooler across most, if not all, of the CWA
on Thursday. Temps should begin to modify on Friday with the
return of Srly flow.

Before the mid/late week cool down, high temps are expected to
remain in the mid to upper 90s, possibly even reaching or
exceeding 100 degrees on Monday and especially on Tuesday.
Excessive ground moisture from recent rainfall should work against
temps exceeding 100 across Cntrl/Ern half of AR on Monday and
Tuesday, nonetheless it will be hot and humid either way. Some
locations may still hit the century mark despite ample greenery
over Cntrl/Ern AR. A combination of heat headlines will likely be
needed Monday through Wednesday, however Tuesday appears to be the
single hottest day during the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Mostly calm and partly cloudy skies are expected through the
period with VFR conditions prevailing. With that said, some
afternoon thunderstorms will once again be possible this afternoon
and evening. IFR/MVFR conditions will be possible if SHRA/TSRA
track over terminals. But due to uncertainity, any mention were
kept out of most TAFs with PROB30 groups for northern terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  95  75  96 /  10  20   0  10
Camden AR         73  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       73  91  74  94 /  10  20   0  10
Hot Springs AR    75  96  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  76  97  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     75  98  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      74  94  75  95 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  73  91  74  93 /  20  20  10  10
Newport AR        76  95  76  97 /  10  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     74  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   75  97  76  98 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         75  96  75  97 /   0  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      76  96  76  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017-
024-025-031>034-039-044>047-057-065.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ007-008-016-
017-024-025-031>034-039-044>047-057-065.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...73