913
FXUS64 KLZK 051123 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
523 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 256 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

-Moderating temperature trend, with dry and settled weather will
 continue through the remainder of the week.

-Some rain chances return to the forecast by Friday.

-Another round of freezing conditions appears possible for much of
 the state early next week (Monday and Tuesday mornings).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

No significant changes to note to the fcst this mrng, as dry,
settled, and seasonably warm condns wl prevail thru the end of the
week. A trailing cdfrnt is set to approach the FA later this aftn
as Great Lakes cyclonic flow departs Ewrd, and Great Plains high
pressure moves Swrd. This frnt should quickly wash out over Nrn AR
w/ Srly winds and WAA resuming again on Thurs.

By Fri, amplifying H500 troughing over the Cntrl US wl drive
another sfc cyclone acrs the Upper Midwest, w/ a trailing cdfrnt
sweeping thru the Srn Cntrl US. Some lower Chc PoPs wl accompany
this frnt, mainly acrs Ern AR Fri aftn to evng.

Thru the weekend and the end of the PD, trends in deterministic
and blended base-fcst guidance remain indicative of a strong
surge of Canadian continental high pressure, and asctd sfc cdfrnt
thru the Sun-Mon timeframe. Ensemble-mean and probabilistic
guidance is also supportive of anomalous H850 and sfc temps w/
this feature.

For now, the current fcst favors another bout of widespread frost
to freezing condns for most of the FA on Mon and Tues mrngs,
though, the impacts of a potential freeze would pertain more to
Cntrl to Srn AR, e.g., where a widespread freeze has not been
observed yet. Some uncertainties still remain however, given a
larger spread in 10-90%ile fcst MinT`s, and timing/magnitude of
the aforementioned cdfrnt.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025

VFR condns are fcst to prevail thru the new TAF PD. A weak frnt wl
move into Nrn AR later this aftn, w/ a Nrly wdshft noted at Nrn
terminals. Otherwise, W-SWrly winds wl persist at Cntrl and Srn
terminals, w/ no other sig wx expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     77  48  73  56 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         76  49  76  58 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       73  46  71  57 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    76  50  75  58 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  75  52  73  58 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     77  51  77  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      77  50  76  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  75  46  70  56 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        77  50  73  58 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     76  50  76  58 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   77  51  75  57 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         76  48  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      75  51  75  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72