461
FXUS64 KLZK 300502
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

A 598-599 decameter upper level ridge was centered over the
region this Tuesday morning. This feature will continue to
promote large scale forcing for subsidence over the next couple of
days. By late week, the upper ridge is anticipated to retrograde
into the Srn Plains/Srn Rockies. Flow locally should become
increasingly NWrly, as early as Friday, and linger through the
weekend as the aforementioned ridge backs into the Four Corners
region.

Today, mostly sunny skies should lead to the warmest day of the
week. PoP chances should be minimal and isolated to areas that reach
convective temperature. The forecast calls for temperatures well
into the 90s to around 100 degrees. With moist air already in
place, afternoon heat index values should top out between 105 and
115 degrees. The higher readings are expected to occur over the
Delta Region of Ern AR stretching back into portions of Cntrl AR.
Opted to upgrade a few counties in Cntrl (including the metro
area) and Ern AR to an Extreme Heat Warning, otherwise the hazards
remain the same. Made no changes to heat headlines for Wednesday
since the forecast still looks on track. Temperatures on Wednesday
should be similar to Tuesday, albeit slightly lower maximum heat
index values thanks to increasing cloud cover.

Rain chances will begin to increase on Thursday and Friday as a
backdoor cold front approaches and moves through the state. Aloft,
upper level energy is poised to pass through NW flow adding to
increased chances for convective initiation across the state.
Heat headlines will likely be needed for portions of Cntrl and
much of Srn AR on Thursday before clouds/precipitation develop.
Through Thursday, ensemble guidance suggest temperatures running
5 to 10 degrees above climatological averages.

Big changes are on the way from Friday through Monday. The
aforementioned surface cold front will sweep across the state
providing drier/cooler NErly flow. This will advect below average
temperatures into the state, thats right, temperatures 5 to 10
degrees below average through the weekend. If you are keeping
track of numbers still, that is potentially a swing in high
temperatures between 10 to 20 degrees, to the cooler side!
Temperatures over the weekend could top out in the upper 70s to
upper 80s. Combine these readings with dew points in the lower/mid
60s and conditions will feel nice and pleasant outdoors. Heat
headlines should not be needed from Friday through the end of the
forecast period. Rain chances will linger through the weekend,
however best PoP chances will be over Srn sections of the state
mainly during the afternoon hours in closer proximity to the
stalled frontal boundary over Nrn LA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF period. Winds
overnight will be light in variable to calm throughout the state
through sunrise. Afternoon diurnal CU is expected again on
Wednesday afternoon with isolated showers and thunderstorms across
the state, but confidence is too low to place in any particular
TAF site. Main aviation impacts from a thunderstorm will be gusty
outflow winds, heavy rain, and lightning leading to brief MVFR/IFR
conditions. Light N/NE wind are expected during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     99  76  98  76 /  20  10  10  10
Camden AR         99  76  99  76 /  10  10  20  10
Harrison AR       95  75  94  73 /  10   0  20  20
Hot Springs AR   100  77 100  76 /  20  10  20  10
Little Rock   AR  99  78  98  77 /  20   0  20  10
Monticello AR    100  77  99  77 /  20  10  20  10
Mount Ida AR      98  76  98  75 /  20  10  20  10
Mountain Home AR  96  74  95  73 /  20   0  20  20
Newport AR        99  77  98  76 /  10   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     99  76  98  76 /  20   0  20  10
Russellville AR  100  77 100  76 /  20  10  20  10
Searcy AR         99  77  98  76 /  10   0  10  10
Stuttgart AR      98  78  98  77 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ004>006-014-015-
024-031-032-039-042>045-052>056-062>064-066>069-103-112-113-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-
241-313-340-341.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ007-008-016-
017-025-033-034-046-047-057-065.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...76