302
FXUS64 KLZK 140714
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
214 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

-Seasonably warm temperatures will prevail across the forecast area
 through the coming workweek, with dry and settled conditions
 prevailing over this period.

-Unsettled weather, including rain and thunderstorm chances appear
 possible across the region by late workweek into the weekend, but
 uncertainties remain between exact timing, QPF, and severe
 weather possibilities.

-Severe weather across Arkansas on Saturday into Saturday remains
 a good possibility. However, models are still working out
 specific detail with respect to hazards and timing, expect those
 to become clear over the next couple of days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

The main driver of weather conditions through the workweek into the
weekend will be upper lvl features. First, for the majority of the
workweek (through Thursday), a dominant upper lvl ridge will be
fixated over Arkansas leading to a period of tranquil and
unseasonably warm weather. However, into the late workweek and
weekend, an upper lvl trof and associated cold front will approach
Arkansas which will present a significant chance for precipitation
and opportunity for severe weather.

TUESDAY(TODAY) THROUGH THURSDAY:

Surface high pressure will be settled across the Southeastern region
of the CONUS which will assist in the promotion of mostly sunny
skies across the Natural State. Additionally, this surface feature
will lead to a continued advection of southerly to southeasterly
flow into Arkansas ushering a warm and moist airmass into the state.
Expect temperatures overall to remain unseasonably warm for this
time of the year averaging about 5 to 10 degrees above normal
overall.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

A significant pattern shift in the upper lvls is forecast to take
place by late workweek. An upper lvl trof is going to dig over the
Central Plains region of the CONUS and will drive a cold front
across Arkansas through the weekend. Latest model guidance of both
the GFS and ECMWF continue to be in cohesion with regard to the
occurrence of rain and thunderstorm activity ahead of and along the
placement of the cold front; however, both are not in agreement on
timing of this occurrence. The latest run as of this forecast
discussion paints two different pictures:

First, the GFS and associated ensembles do contain the ingredients
needed for all modes of severe weather across Arkansas on Saturday,
but the wild card is that the GFS shows a strong signal of wanting
to promote morning rain and isolated thunderstorms which would
dampen the environment overall severe-wise if the atmosphere has
been worked over by morning activity and is not able to become re-
primed Saturday afternoon/Saturday evening. Additionally, the timing
of the system would arrive Saturday morning and this would transpire
into more of a rain-producing event with a few strong to severe
storms.

Second, the ECMWF and associated ensembles do contain the
ingredients needed for all modes of severe weather across Arkansas
on Saturday. Additionally, the ECMWF indicated a solution of much
less to no rain or isolated storms that may weaken or stabilize the
atmosphere ahead of the main line of convection. The model brings
strong to severe thunderstorms across Arkansas Saturday evening into
Saturday night providing a tad slower solution than the GFS.

Expect on Friday temperatures to remain unseasonably warm by 5 to 10
degrees across Arkansas with fair weather conditions ahead of the
approaching cold front as a return to predominately southerly flow
will commence advecting warm air and moisture into the state.
Saturday and Sunday will be the days in which noted temperatures
will lower due to a combination of rain-cooled air, cloud cover, and
the FROPA as a drier and cooler airmass will funnel in behind the
cold front, especially on Sunday as the cold front begins to
progress away from the state. In upcoming forecast discussions and
packages, specifics will begin to be discussed as the event draws
closer. It does heed mentioning that confidence is high that the
state will experience widespread rainfall, especially when signals
this far out from model guidance show cohesion and confidence.

Into Monday, the cold front will push well east of Arkansas and sfc
high pressure will occupy the region. In response this will usher in
a cooler and drier airmass which will place temperatures overall
near normal for mid-October transitioning into late-October.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

The northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK may experience patchy, dense
fog dropping flight category to IFR early Tuesday morning; this
possibility has been captured by the introduction of a TEMPO group
for each site. By later Tuesday morning, VSBY will improve to VFR
flight category and remain through the rest of the forecast period.
All other terminals will remain VFR for the entire duration of the
forecast period from early Tuesday morning through early Wednesday
morning. The sites of KLIT, KPBF, and KLLQ will experience surface
wind gusts in excess of 21 knots from Tuesday late morning through
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     85  56  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         84  56  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       82  57  81  56 /  10  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    85  58  84  57 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  84  59  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     85  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      86  57  85  56 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  84  57  83  56 /   0  10   0   0
Newport AR        85  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     84  56  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   87  60  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         85  57  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      83  57  84  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74