063
FXUS64 KLZK 121901
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
201 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

After the typical mid morning lull in showers and
thunderstorms...have seen quite the uptick in showers and
thunderstorm development over the past 30 minutes or so. High
temperatures this afternoon look to generally remain on track.
Portions of Boone county this morning saw 2-3 inches of rain over
about 2-3 hours in locations just west of Lead Hill. This has
primed that small area for flash flooding and will bear watching
as showers and thunderstorms are forecast there later today. No
watch will be issued however as this area is extremely small.

This afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop and move through the state. The greatest
chances are expected across NW Arkansas out ahead of a stalled
boundary. This boundary will keep showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast through the weekend across NW parts of the state, while
shower and thunderstorm potential in portions of central and SE
Arkansas will be more diurnally driven.

Lather, rinse, and repeat on Sunday as continued shower and
thunderstorms potential will be in the forecast. Temperatures will
be slightly cooler on Sunday with increased rain chances and
increased cloud cover across the NW half of the state. In the SE,
temperatures will be very similar to what was seen today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The pattern will be somewhat unsettled to start the long term.
Aloft, a positively tilted trough axis should be positioned over the
region. Upper level energy associated with the trough will aid in
shower and thunderstorm development in conjunction with a weak
surface boundary. PoP chances should be greatest in the afternoons
and evenings during periods of maximized diurnal heating.

Precipitation chances should decrease heading through mid week as
the aforementioned trough pivots Ewrd while at the same time an
upper ridge builds and expands over the SErn CONUS. AR is
anticipated to reside on the Wrn periphery of this high pressure,
therefore sparse pieces of upper level energy traversing around the
ridge could bring brief periods of increased PoP chances. Late in
the period, some guidance suggest an abundance Gulf moisture could
stream NW towards the region, but the interaction of this moisture
with the eventually placement and strength of high pressure will
ultimately dictate if precip actually moves into AR. There is still
plenty of time to sort out the details of the late week system.

The heat will build moving through mid week, with highs topping out
in the mid 90s to at times upper 90s. Overnight low temperatures
will have a slight uptick each day through mid week with lows in the
mid/upper 70s. Combine this heat with SW moisture rich  surface
flow, and Apparent T`s could exceed 105 degrees across at least the
Ern half of the state. Thus heat headlines may return to portions of
the state by next week as high pressure moves into the region from
the E. Relief from heat could come from scattered afternoon showers
and storms and possibly again towards the weekend depending on track
of moisture in the Gulf. During the period, if storms become strong,
isolated strong wind gusts would be possible and where storms train
or become stationary, isolated pockets of flash flooding is
possible. Organized severe weather appears unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

After a bit of a lull in precipitation during the early morning
hours, showers and thunderstorms have continued to develop here
recently. Mostly VFR conditions will persist except when under
heavy showers and thunderstorms that will likely lower ceilings
and reduce visibilities. Some models are forecasting some patchy
fog during the early morning hours...generally across northern
Terminals. But the extent of this will bear watching in future
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Generally VFR conditions expected through the period with sfc
winds out of the S-SW at up to 10 kts with some terminals seeing
occasional gusts above 15 kts. Decaying line of showers/storms
across SW MO will drift south into northern AR through 12z and
could lead to additional showers/storms this morning. Otherwise,
additional precip is possible this afternoon/evening across the
state. This could lead to some occasional impacts to area
terminals, with the best coverage expected across the northwest
half of AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  90  72  91 /  30  70  20  50
Camden AR         72  93  73  94 /  30  50  20  50
Harrison AR       69  84  69  85 /  40  70  20  60
Hot Springs AR    72  93  73  92 /  40  60  30  60
Little Rock   AR  74  92  75  92 /  40  50  20  60
Monticello AR     75  93  75  94 /  20  40  10  40
Mount Ida AR      72  90  71  90 /  40  70  30  60
Mountain Home AR  70  85  70  87 /  30  70  20  60
Newport AR        73  91  73  92 /  30  60  20  50
Pine Bluff AR     73  93  74  94 /  30  40  20  50
Russellville AR   72  89  72  90 /  40  60  30  60
Searcy AR         72  91  73  92 /  30  60  20  50
Stuttgart AR      74  92  75  92 /  30  50  20  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...65