080
FXUS64 KLZK 242034
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
334 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New FORECAST UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Flash flood potential exists late Friday night/Saturday AM;
  covering central, south central, and southeast Arkansas

- Hazardous heat set to return to the region by Sunday, with
  multiple 100 degree days possible through mid-week next week

- In addition to daytime heat next week, overnight lows may
  struggle to fall below 80 degrees in some locations

- Make sure to drink plenty of water and take breaks when outside

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Hi-Res and ensemble model guidance has highlighted an area for
potential heavy rainfall from late tonight into Saturday morning.
This area spans from central Arkansas eastward roughly along and
south of the I40 corridor, to roughly south and east of the I30
corridor. Guidance is indicating the potential for a focused area of
5-10" of rainfall across portions of central/south/southeastern
Arkansas, with this representing a reasonable worst case scenario.
The most likely scenario ranges between 2-5". Forecast PW values are
expected range from 2.5" to 2.75" which is above the daily maximum
according to sounding climatology for the date.

A slow-moving to quasi-stationary frontal boundary will reside over
the state, allowing for effective moisture pooling along/south of
the boundary and increasing isentropic ascent atop it as a modest 25
kt LLJ develops early Saturday morning. Cloud layer winds near 10
kts should result in slow storm motions to the southeast within this
frontal zone, thus increasing confidence in an area of heavy
rainfall once precipitation develops. Rain rates in excess of 2"+
per hour will be possible, resulting in potential flash flooding,
some of which could be higher end flash flooding if worst case
scenario rainfall is realized.

Given the aforementioned information, opted to issue a flood watch
from 1AM to 1PM Saturday across portions of central, south, and
southeast Arkansas. This is a low probability but potentially high
impact flooding event.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

To begin the period, northwest flow over the state will bring one
additional day of relatively cooler temperatures (still hot) to
the state before another warm up this weekend through at least
early next week.

As the upper level ridge builds back over the region, sinking air
over the state will diminish the chances for rain through this
weekend and into early next week. Although, some afternoon
thunderstorm chances cannot be completely ruled out.

The biggest threat will be the dangerous temperatures and heat
index values. By Sunday and Monday it is possible many locations
across the state reach 100 degrees with heat index values much
hotter. Heat headlines will be likely Saturday across eastern
Arkansas and the River Valley. By Sunday and into early next week,
it is expected much of the state will see a mix of heat advisories
and extreme heat warnings.

An additional concern could be the lack of a recover period
overnight where we could see multiple nights later this weekend
and next week where locations struggle to get below 80 degrees. If
you plan to be outdoors for any reason this weekend and next week,
make sure you have shade to rest in, take multiple breaks, and
drink plenty of water.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

MVFR conds were prevailing N of a frontal boundary which was
draped across Cntrl AR this afternoon. Sct SHRA were ongoing N of
the boundary affecting mainly KBPK. Skies were BKN S of the
boundary with MVFR/VFR noted. Winds will be light this afternoon
out of the S. SHRA/TSRA are expected to redevelop late overnight
affecting primarily Cntrl/SE terminals. For now there is low
confidence in PoPs but if PoPs occurs, storms could linger for
hours on end. Mix of MVFR/VFR conds are expected to end the TAF
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     73  95  77  98 /  30  30  30  10
Camden AR         75  95  75  98 /  30  40   0   0
Harrison AR       73  93  76  98 /  20  10  10   0
Hot Springs AR    76  96  77  99 /  30  40   0   0
Little Rock   AR  78  96  79  99 /  40  50  30  10
Monticello AR     77  94  77  97 /  40  40   0   0
Mount Ida AR      75  93  76  97 /  20  30   0   0
Mountain Home AR  72  92  75  97 /  30  10  10   0
Newport AR        74  95  76  98 /  30  30  20   0
Pine Bluff AR     75  94  75  97 /  50  50  10  10
Russellville AR   75  97  77 101 /  20  20  10   0
Searcy AR         74  95  76  98 /  40  40  20  10
Stuttgart AR      77  95  77  98 /  50  50  30  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ004>008-
015>017-024-025-031>034-039-043>047-103-121>123-130-138-230-238.

Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Saturday through Saturday afternoon
for ARZ043>047-055>057-062>069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70