827
FXUS64 KLZK 051731
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

-Chances for isolated showers/thunderstorms possible again this
Friday

-Chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms forecast for
this weekend into early next week

-Overall threat for organized severe weather low through the
period...but some isolated strong to severe weather may be seen

-Oppressive heat may settle across the region next week...with heat
headlines becoming possible

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Moisture levels have increased areawide early this Fri morning as
result of the warm front that lifted north on Thu...and the
scattered convection seen. While most precip has ended early this Fri
morning...weak SW flow aloft will remain over the state for Fri.
Another weak upper wave may pass overhead in this SW flow
aloft...and additional isolated to widely scattered convection may
again develop during the morning and afternoon hrs. Best POPs will
remain across WRN/NWRN sections...but some stray SHRA may still be
seen across portions of central AR similar to Thu. Most precip should
dissipate shortly after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

Chances for more convection return for Sat...with coverage expected
to be more significant. This will be result of an upper low lifting
north from TX into OK...and with an upper disturbance passing NE
over AR in the SW flow aloft east of the upper low. Similar
conditions will be seen again on Sun...with scattered convection
expected for a good portion of the CWA.

The unsettled pattern will continue into early next week as SW flow
aloft continues...and weak upper waves pass overhead. By the middle
of next week...expect the chances for precip to decrease as upper
flow become less significant over the region. Even so...enough
weakness in the upper flow may exist to see some isolated afternoon
convection during the middle of next week.

The overall threat for seeing any organized SVR Wx and widespread
heavy rainfall through the period remains low due to no major
systems expected to pass through the region. However...some isolated
strong/SVR convection may be seen each day...along with the
potential for locally heavy rainfall that may result in isolated
flash flooding.

With the upper ridge moving overhead...temps will gradually rise
into the upper 80s to mid 90s by the middle/latter half of next
week. Chances for precip look to remain low...but humidity levels
will remain high. This should result in some near critical heat
index levels as early as Mon/Tue for portions of the area...and a
bit more widespread later next week. If this trend looks to come to
fruition...heat headlines may be needed sometime next week as a
result of oppressively hot conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Mainly VFR ceilings with some patchy MVFR ceilings this afternoon
across the area. Isolated to scattered SHRA possible through
sunset across parts of western, northern and northern central
Arkansas. HREF and BUFKIT soundings through a large part of the
state shows MVFR ceilings overspreading the state south to north
during the overnight hours and prevail Saturday norning across
the state. Light south to southeast winds will prevail through
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  83  70  83 /  10  40  50  90
Camden AR         71  85  71  86 /  10  50  40  90
Harrison AR       67  78  68  80 /  20  60  40  90
Hot Springs AR    71  82  71  83 /  10  70  60  90
Little Rock   AR  70  83  71  84 /  10  50  50  80
Monticello AR     72  84  72  86 /  10  60  40  80
Mount Ida AR      70  81  71  82 /  20  60  60  90
Mountain Home AR  67  79  68  80 /  20  60  50  90
Newport AR        69  85  71  85 /  10  30  40  80
Pine Bluff AR     71  84  72  85 /  10  40  50  80
Russellville AR   70  81  71  84 /  10  70  60 100
Searcy AR         68  84  70  85 /  10  60  50  80
Stuttgart AR      72  85  73  85 /  10  40  60  80

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...76