006
FXUS64 KLZK 122338
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
638 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

After the typical mid morning lull in showers and
thunderstorms...have seen quite the uptick in showers and
thunderstorm development over the past 30 minutes or so. High
temperatures this afternoon look to generally remain on track.
Portions of Boone county this morning saw 2-3 inches of rain over
about 2-3 hours in locations just west of Lead Hill. This has
primed that small area for flash flooding and will bear watching
as showers and thunderstorms are forecast there later today. No
watch will be issued however as this area is extremely small.

This afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop and move through the state. The greatest
chances are expected across NW Arkansas out ahead of a stalled
boundary. This boundary will keep showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast through the weekend across NW parts of the state, while
shower and thunderstorm potential in portions of central and SE
Arkansas will be more diurnally driven.

Lather, rinse, and repeat on Sunday as continued shower and
thunderstorms potential will be in the forecast. Temperatures will
be slightly cooler on Sunday with increased rain chances and
increased cloud cover across the NW half of the state. In the SE,
temperatures will be very similar to what was seen today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The pattern will be somewhat unsettled to start the long term.
Aloft, a positively tilted trough axis should be positioned over the
region. Upper level energy associated with the trough will aid in
shower and thunderstorm development in conjunction with a weak
surface boundary. PoP chances should be greatest in the afternoons
and evenings during periods of maximized diurnal heating.

Precipitation chances should decrease heading through mid week as
the aforementioned trough pivots Ewrd while at the same time an
upper ridge builds and expands over the SErn CONUS. AR is
anticipated to reside on the Wrn periphery of this high pressure,
therefore sparse pieces of upper level energy traversing around the
ridge could bring brief periods of increased PoP chances. Late in
the period, some guidance suggest an abundance Gulf moisture could
stream NW towards the region, but the interaction of this moisture
with the eventually placement and strength of high pressure will
ultimately dictate if precip actually moves into AR. There is still
plenty of time to sort out the details of the late week system.

The heat will build moving through mid week, with highs topping out
in the mid 90s to at times upper 90s. Overnight low temperatures
will have a slight uptick each day through mid week with lows in the
mid/upper 70s. Combine this heat with SW moisture rich  surface
flow, and Apparent T`s could exceed 105 degrees across at least the
Ern half of the state. Thus heat headlines may return to portions of
the state by next week as high pressure moves into the region from
the E. Relief from heat could come from scattered afternoon showers
and storms and possibly again towards the weekend depending on track
of moisture in the Gulf. During the period, if storms become strong,
isolated strong wind gusts would be possible and where storms train
or become stationary, isolated pockets of flash flooding is
possible. Organized severe weather appears unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Unsettled weather will continue during the overnight hours with
periods of lower ceilings, visibilities, and strong wind gusts
when strong thunderstorms impact the terminals. Models are
suggesting most of the showers and thunderstorms in NE Texas and
Eastern Oklahoma will begin to weaken after sunset at most
terminals except for KHRO and KBPK. A second round of showers and
thunderstorms could impact KHOT and KADF in addition to KHRO and
KBPK, but at this point do believe the best chances will remain
west of the KHOT and KADF around 12z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     92  72  90  72 /  60  30  70  20
Camden AR         94  72  93  73 /  50  30  50  20
Harrison AR       86  69  84  69 /  80  40  70  20
Hot Springs AR    94  72  93  73 /  50  40  60  30
Little Rock   AR  94  74  92  75 /  50  40  50  20
Monticello AR     94  75  93  75 /  40  20  40  10
Mount Ida AR      92  72  90  71 /  60  40  70  30
Mountain Home AR  87  70  85  70 /  80  30  70  20
Newport AR        94  73  91  73 /  60  30  60  20
Pine Bluff AR     94  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  20
Russellville AR   92  72  89  72 /  60  40  60  30
Searcy AR         93  72  91  73 /  50  30  60  20
Stuttgart AR      93  74  92  75 /  40  30  50  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...65