727
FXUS64 KLZK 242348
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
548 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 116 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Early afternoon weather observations across Arkansas showed
temperatures in the lower to mid 70s while visible satellite
imagery tracked some scattered stratocumulus spreading east across
the state. Conditions were breezy with winds generally out of the
south or southwest at 10 to 15 mph with wind gusts at 25 to 30
mph. Persistent southerly flow will continue to advect moisture
across the state resulting in an increase in cloud cover through
the overnight hours tonight. Breezy winds and cloudy skies
throughout the overnight hours will keep temperatures quite warm
tonight with early morning low temperatures only falling into the
low 60s for most locations across the state, a good 15 to 20
degrees warmer than what we had to start the day this morning.

Beginning Monday morning, weather conditions will begin to change
rapidly across northwest Arkansas as a reasonably strong cold
front moves into the state from the Great Plains. This front will
keep Monday high temperatures very close to early morning
temperatures as breezy northwest winds bring in colder air at just
about the same rate that the ground can heat up from the sun
throughout the day. For central Arkansas expect temperatures to
climb 10 degrees or so before the front arrives, leaving the
southeast to warm up into the upper 70s before the front arrives
Monday afternoon to start the downward trend of temperatures.
Aside from temperatures, the front will bring with it a small
chance of rain, primarily right along and just behind the frontal
boundary. Because positive moisture advection is really limited to
today and tonight, wherever rain is produced, do not expect a
whole lot of it to fall. Continued the midnight shift trend to
expand the mention of rain from southeast Arkansas to include more
of central Arkansas as well. The probabilities aren`t all that
high, but I wouldn`t be surprised if most folks experienced at
least a sprinkle or drizzle of rainfall with the passage of the
front tomorrow.

Behind Monday`s front, temperatures will obviously be cooler
again, but not dramatically so. Tuesday morning lows will likely
start the day a few degrees below freezing across northern
Arkansas with temperatures moderating into the mid 30s central,
and lower 40s for the southern portions of the state. Highs on
Tuesday will climb into the mid 50s for most locations under
mostly sunny skies. As is the case with many strong but shallow
cold fronts, the dry air advection will be more dramatic than the
true cold air advection, so expect the airmass to modify quickly
mid week before we hit the Thanksgiving Holiday.

Cavanaugh

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 116 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

To begin the period, high pressure will be located over the Ohio
Valley bringing calm and dry conditions across the CWA. This pattern
will be short-lived as high pressure slides to the east by late
Wednesday and a surface low tracks into the Central Plains and into
the Mississippi Valley. This system will bring the next chance for
rain across the state for Wednesday night through Thanksgiving. Calm
and dry conditions are expected to move back into the area for
Friday and Saturday.

As mentioned above, the next weather system will impact the state
late Wednesday through Thanksgiving. There is a lot out on social
media regarding the potential for wintry precip across portions of
the state...especially northern Arkansas. While some flakes could be
possible over the highest elevations, deterministic and ensemble
model guidance suggests that the cold temperatures are likely to
move in after the bulk of the moisture has moved away from those
areas across the north. As of this forecast package, mostly a cold
rain is expected. With that said, changes to the forecast are
certainly possible, so continue to check back in to reliable weather
sources for the latest.

Below average temperatures are expected to move in the state
beginning Thursday and lasting through much of the period. High
temperatures are expected to be in the mid 40s to upper 50s with
overnight lows dropping into the mid 20s to lower 30s.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conds are expect this evening, becoming lower-end MVFR as
CIGs lower early Mon morning into late morning from NW to SE as
low-level stratus develop. An increasing cloud deck will be the
result of a cold front sweeping across the state on Mon. Winds
will initially be SWrly, switching to the W, then NWrly in the
wake of the boundary Mon. Winds may gust upwards of 20 kts both
ahead of the front and behind the front. Mentioned VCSH across SE
terminals as scattered low-end PoPs/rain showers are possible
across these locations Mon afternoon just ahead of the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     57  69  34  53 /   0  20   0   0
Camden AR         60  76  41  60 /   0  20   0   0
Harrison AR       51  60  29  53 /   0  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    60  72  39  58 /   0  20   0   0
Little Rock   AR  60  73  40  56 /   0  20   0   0
Monticello AR     61  77  44  59 /   0  30   0   0
Mount Ida AR      59  71  36  60 /   0  20   0   0
Mountain Home AR  54  61  31  52 /   0  10   0   0
Newport AR        58  71  36  53 /   0  30   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     60  75  41  58 /   0  30   0   0
Russellville AR   58  70  35  57 /   0  10   0   0
Searcy AR         57  72  36  54 /   0  20   0   0
Stuttgart AR      60  74  40  56 /   0  30   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...70