271
FXUS64 KLZK 070529
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1229 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Flood watch is no longer in effect. Excessive rainfall is not
expected during the overnight hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

To begin the period, a low pressure system continues to move into
the area bringing with it the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Additionally, an unsettled weather pattern is expected through much
of the period with on and off rainfall chances across the state.

As mentioned above, a system has tracked into the state bringing the
chance for showers and thunderstorms. The main takeaway from this
forecast package compared to previous ones is the model trends
towards lesser amounts of QPF across portions of Arkansas. It now
appears the heaviest of the rain could remain south of the state
into Louisiana. Regardless, one to two inches of QPF will still be
possible for southern locations with lesser amounts as you move
north.

Severe weather chances appear low at this time although some gusty
winds and small hail cannot be ruled out. The main concern continues
to be the threat for isolated flash flooding across southern
locations.

Temperatures are expected to average through the period with high
temperatures in the mid 60 to upper 70s. Overnight low temperatures
are expected to drop into the upper 40s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

MVFR ceilings will prevail during the forecast period. Best chance
for TSRA will be across the northern third of the forecast area
between 20z and 02z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     71  58  74  57 /  40  30  60  40
Camden AR         80  60  80  57 /  10  30  50  30
Harrison AR       67  55  69  53 /  50  50  80  40
Hot Springs AR    79  59  77  57 /  10  40  60  40
Little Rock   AR  77  60  77  59 /  20  40  60  40
Monticello AR     81  63  82  60 /  30  30  60  40
Mount Ida AR      79  58  77  57 /  10  30  60  30
Mountain Home AR  67  56  70  54 /  50  50  70  40
Newport AR        71  60  75  59 /  40  30  50  40
Pine Bluff AR     79  61  79  60 /  20  30  50  40
Russellville AR   75  58  75  57 /  20  40  60  40
Searcy AR         74  59  75  57 /  30  30  60  40
Stuttgart AR      76  62  77  60 /  20  30  50  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55