871
FXUS64 KLZK 201043 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
543 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Most of AR remains generally quiet early this Sun morning...with
just some scattered SHRA noted over west central sections. More
organized SHRA/TSRA was also noted over far NWRN sections of the
state...moving NE into SW MO. Most areas are seeing temps in the 60s
and 70s...with an east to SE wind with SFC low pressure to the west
of AR. More intense and occasionally SVR convection was seen over
central to ERN/SERN OK...activity which continues to lift NE towards
WRN/NWRN AR.

Expect the convection to the west in OK to continue to lift NE into
NWRN AR over the next several hrs...some of this activity which may
enter the far WRN/NWRN counties of the CWA as a warm front lifts
north over this portion of AR. A Tornado Watch will remain in effect
through 12Z this morning for these counties...with the potential for
some of this convection to be SVR if it arrives in these areas.
Damaging winds...large hail...and a brief tornado could be seen this
morning over these NWRN counties.

By later this morning...the warm front will lift north of AR as the
SFC low lifts NNE ahead of the upper shortwave the the west. This
shortwave and SFC low will both lift NNE into MO by this
afternoon...with a trailing cold front pushing east into AR. A line
of TSRA will develop along/ahead of this front this
afternoon...pushing east across the state late this afternoon into
the evening hrs. Strong to SVR convection will be possible with this
line...with the best chances for seeing SVR convection this
afternoon/early evening over the NWRN half of the area. This will be
where the front will be pushing east around peak afternoon
heating...which will be where best instability will overlap with
best 0-6 km SHR. A broken line of TSRA or potentially a QLCS may be
seen with this activity...with damaging winds the primary threat. If
storms were to remain a bit more discrete...large hail and tornadoes
could be seen. A few tornadoes could also be seen along the leading
edge of the line if the storms remain less discrete moving into an
area of enhanced 0-1 km SRH. In any case...all modes of SVR Wx will
be possible along this frontal induced convection.

The overall threat for heavy rainfall will decrease by this
afternoon. The focus of heavy rainfall will remain for this Sun
morning however as the more organized convection moves over areas
that saw heavy rainfall on Sat. Will keep the flood watch in place
at this time...primarily for this morning convection moving over
areas saturated from yesterday. Otherwise...only locally heavy
rainfall will look likely by later this afternoon and evening with
the frontal convection.

The front will move east of the state by late tonight into Mon
morning...with SFC high pressure settling across the state by Mon
afternoon. Much calmer and quieter conditions will be seen as a
result for the rest of the short term period. Having said that...the
front may attempt to lift back north into far SRN/SERN sections Mon
afternoon/night...which may keep some small chances for precip
across this portion of the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Surface high pressure will be in the process of departing the region
to the E on Tuesday with winds shifting to S/SE during the
afternoon. Dry weather will ensue on Tuesday and Tuesday night
despite increasing low-level moisture advection through the lower
portion of the atmosphere. Unsettled weather conditions are
anticipated to return mid-to-late week as a series of upper level
impulses traverse background WSW/SW flow in place across the CONUS.

Rain chances will ramp up on Wednesday as the first in a series of
upper level shortwaves move across the region. PoPs will increase
Wednesday morning over SW AR, with PoPs delayed until Wednesday
afternoon over NE AR. A brief reprieve from rainfall is expected
Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Afterwards, another upper
level shortwave will track across the region on Thursday bringing
another round of showers and thunderstorms to the state.

In rapid succession, two more upper level impulses are anticipated
to move across the region on Friday into Saturday. The current
forecast calls for a broad 1-3" of total rainfall across the state
between all these passing upper level features. Lower end rainfall
amounts are possible over portions of SE AR and far E AR. The threat
for flash flooding appears low due to the duration of precipitation
vs amounts expected. The threat for severe weather will have to be
monitored however there are not many indicators that upper level
dynamics and large scale kinematic wind fields will be present with
these passing shortwaves. These features will need to be monitored
more from the mesoscale, which will become more clear in the short
term period.

Temperatures through the period will largely moderated by wet
weather and overcast skies for days. High temperatures should be in
the mid 70s to mid 80s. Low temperatures should be in the mid 50s to
mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Some MVFR CIGs will continue to lift north this
morning...impacting some of the terminals this morning. Some
scattered convection will remain possible across NWRN sections
this morning...then most areas by this afternoon/evening as a cold
front moves through the state. Breezy SRLY winds will be seen
ahead of this front...switching to the NW/W behind the
front/convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     79  54  76  52 /  40  90   0   0
Camden AR         83  61  80  59 /  50  90  20  10
Harrison AR       72  48  73  49 /  90  20   0   0
Hot Springs AR    78  53  78  54 /  80  50   0   0
Little Rock   AR  81  56  78  54 /  50  80   0   0
Monticello AR     82  64  77  60 /  20  90  40  20
Mount Ida AR      76  52  78  53 /  80  30   0   0
Mountain Home AR  75  51  73  50 /  90  50   0   0
Newport AR        81  56  76  52 /  20  90   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     82  61  79  57 /  20  90  20  10
Russellville AR   77  51  78  51 /  80  30   0   0
Searcy AR         80  54  77  51 /  40  90   0   0
Stuttgart AR      82  59  77  55 /  20  80  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ004>006-014-015-103-112-
113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-
240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...62