820
FXUS64 KLZK 291745
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Most of the convection has ended across the LZK CWA early this Sun
morning...but some isolated/scattered SHRA were redeveloping across
NERN sections. This will be the area of the state where some
continued chances for SHRA/isolated TSRA will remain this morning as
weak upper wave moves NERN AR. Chances for diurnally driven
convection will be up once again this Sun afternoon for much of
central to NRN/NERN AR. Coverage of convection will decrease tonight
into Mon morning with the loss of daytime heating.

While more diurnally driven convection will be seen again on
Mon...these chances for precip will likely continue into the
overnight hrs Mon night as a weak front drops south towards...and
maybe even into NRN AR by Mon night.

The overall threat for strong to SVR weather will remain low each
day. However...a couple strong to briefly SVR TSRA may be seen. The
main threats will be downburst winds...marginally SVR hail...and
locally heavy rainfall.

The oppressive heat potential will have decreased some late this
weekend into early this week due to the increased coverage of
convection and resulting cloud cover. This will tend to keep temps
from warming too far. As a result...heat headlines are not expected
at this time. However...there will still be areas that see heat
index values in the upper 90s to just over 100 at times each
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

To begin, an upper ridge will build and amplify across the Srn
Rockies with a short wave trough sliding into the TN/OH Valley
regions. Between systems, NW upper flow will be place across the
nations mid-section. At the surface a stationary front will be
positioned across the Nrn half of the state on Tuesday. With the
approach of the ridge from the W in conjunction with surface flow
switching from NErly to SWrly, the frontal boundary will lift NEwrd
as a warm front during the day on Wednesday. Thursday through
Saturday, the upper ridge will move Ewrd centering itself over the
SErn CONUS. Upper level energy is expected to move around the
periphery of the ridge into the weekend.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop
associated with the frontal boundary. This front will serve as the
source for convergence and lift Tuesday and Wednesday. Between
Thursday and Saturday, additional showers and thunderstorms are
possible as aforementioned upper level impulses move across the
region around the periphery of high pressure aloft. During the long
term, PoP chances are anticipated to be greatest during the
afternoon and early evening hours with the aid of diurnal heating.
Even so, PoP chances each day top out between 20 and 30 percent. PW
values are forecasted to top out around 2" and with weak storm flow,
thunderstorms could produce efficient rainfall rates. If storms
happen to train over the same locations or heavy rain impacts the
same locations over a short duration of time, isolated flash
flooding will be possible. Organized severe weather is not likely,
however briefly gusty winds could accompany the strongest of storms.

Temperatures through the period should top out in the upper 80s to
mid 90s for highs, and upper 60s to mid 70s for lows. Heat index
values will creep upwards each day heading through the weekend. By
Saturday, heat index values should range from 95 to 105 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Hi-res CAMs this afternoon  show scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing across far southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas and moving south through the evening hours across
central and portions of southern Arkansas through the evening
hours. MVFR and intermittent IFR and gusty outflow winds are
possiblewith TEMP groups up at KHRO and KBPK through 22z, then
around 02-06z at LIT and 05-07z at PBF as showers and
thunderstorms will weaken and eventually dissipate after sunset
due to the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, light S/SW winds
will prevail at all terminals with VFR conditions expected through
a majority of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74  91  73  90 /  20  60  40  20
Camden AR         74  95  72  92 /  10  30  30  40
Harrison AR       72  88  68  87 /  30  70  30  20
Hot Springs AR    75  93  73  91 /  10  50  40  40
Little Rock   AR  76  93  73  90 /  20  50  40  30
Monticello AR     76  93  75  90 /  10  40  40  50
Mount Ida AR      74  91  72  89 /  10  50  40  30
Mountain Home AR  71  89  70  88 /  30  70  30  20
Newport AR        75  93  74  91 /  20  60  40  20
Pine Bluff AR     75  93  73  89 /  20  50  40  40
Russellville AR   74  92  73  92 /  20  60  40  30
Searcy AR         73  93  73  90 /  20  60  30  30
Stuttgart AR      76  93  74  90 /  20  50  40  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...Kelly