738
FNUS71 KLWX 251139
FWSLWX

Spot Forecast for Mt. Joy Pond NAP Rx Burn...Virginia Department of Conservation and
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
739 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on August 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure brings continued dry conditions today. The prevailing
background flow will remain out of the northwest through late afternoon,
when it will begin to become variable. However, the flow may be light
enough that localized terrain/upslope flows dominate with daytime
heating. Minimum RH values will most likely be in the upper 30s, but
could drop as low as the lower 30s.

The next potential for any rain will come Wednesday afternoon and
evening, although coverage of any showers or thunderstorms will
remain isolated.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 3 to 6 mph shifting to the west
                    around 5 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (23600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8   10  9   2   4   5   4   9   15
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............61  68  72  74  77  79  80  80  78
RH..............70  57  51  48  43  41  38  41  42
20 FT wind dir..NW  N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   SW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.6   7   7   6   6   6   6   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 2.4 3.3 4.1 4.8 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9
Transp wind dir.N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W
Transp wind spd.6   6   6   5   3   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7   12  16  17  14  21  22  23  24
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 5 mph shifting to the southeast 5
                    to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (19600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1600 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........30  42  26  35  47  43  31  38  21  22  23  28
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............78  75  70  68  67  66  64  63  63  62  61  60
RH..............43  50  53  57  56  58  63  65  65  70  70  72
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
20 FT wind gust.7   8   8   7   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.9 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.5   6   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..20  6   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 30 percent early in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of thunder...25 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph late in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (64500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26  26  23  26  32  19  30  59  59  59  60  51
Weather cov.....                                CHC SCH SCH CHC
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                SCH SCH SCH CHC
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   30  20  20  30
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   20  20  20  25
Temp............60  60  62  66  72  75  78  80  81  82  81  79
RH..............72  75  72  65  57  55  52  51  51  49  51  56
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..1   1   1   1   3   5   6   7   7   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.5   3   3   6   8   12  14  16  16  16  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 1.4 2.8 3.9 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.2 4.8
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   6   9   10  12  13  14  14  14  13
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2   2   2   7   22  35  46  55  63  65  62  53
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD  FR

$$
Forecaster...Snyder
Requested by...Tyler Urgo
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2620472.0/LWX
.DELDT 08/25/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL tyler.urgo@dcr.virginia.gov