Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
206
FNUS71 KLWX 090803
FWSLWX
Spot Forecast for Hone Quarry II RX Black lining...USFS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
403 AM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0500 EDT on April 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will settle across the area today before pushing
offshore later tonight. Today will be very dry once again across
the entire area, with afternoon RH values dropping well into the
20s. However, not much wind around today, and fuels remain on the
wet side for now. Finer fuels like grass/leaves are likely a bit
drier given the windy and sunny conditions yesterday, but overall
today isn`t concerning from a fire weather perspective given the
lack of wind and overall still wet fuels.
Rain chances are expected to return on Thursday as a warm front
lifts through the region. Unsettled conditions will then continue
into probably Saturday as an upper-level cutoff low lingers over
the region. A pretty decent wetting rain is becoming increasingly
likely, especially Friday afternoon into Friday night.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 25.
Max humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2000 knot-ft).
TIME (EDT) 5 AM
Sky (%).........0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0
Chc of thdr (%).0
Temp............28
RH..............57
20 ft wind......SW 2
20 ft wind gust.5
Mix hgt (ft)....400
Transport wind..W 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2
Ventrate Cat....POOR
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 6 mph late in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 14 mph shifting to the southwest
around 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (65300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........0 0 0 2 3 15
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............27 31 38 44 51 55
RH..............59 51 38 31 27 25
20 ft wind......SW 1 N 0 S 1 S 2 S 6 S 6
20 ft wind gust.3 3 6 10 14 16
Mix hgt (ft)....400 1000 3300 4100 4800 5100
Transport wind..W 6 W 6 W 9 SW 10 SW 12 SW 14
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 5 26 37 48 62
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR FAIR GOOD
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
showers overnight.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 40 percent.
Chance of thunder...2 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (53000 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (3400 knot-ft) late in the
night.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........7 28 87 86
Weather cov..... CHANCE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 10 30
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0
Temp............53 44 41 41
RH..............30 48 57 62
20 FT wind......S 6G15 SW 2G13 S 2G9 S 2G9
Mix hgt (ft)....4100 400 400 500
Transport wind..S 15 S 12 S 10 S 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..53 4 4 5
Ventrate Cat....FAIR POOR POOR POOR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers.
CWR.................40 percent increasing to 60 percent early in
the morning, then increasing to 80 percent late
in the morning increasing to 90 percent late in
the afternoon decreasing to 70 percent.
Chance of thunder...5 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 49.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph with
gusts to around 21 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 18 mph increasing to 18 to 22 mph
late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (39500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........96 95 95 93 91 91 92 93 94 94 94 93
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............40 40 60 60 60 80 80 80 90 90 90 70
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 0
Temp............40 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 48 48
RH..............70 70 73 76 79 82 82 83 79 80 80 83
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 3 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 7
20 FT wind gust.12 12 13 15 17 18 20 21 21 21 20 18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.12 10 12 15 18 21 22 21 20 20 20 18
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 4 6 14 26 37 40 35 30 28 27 23
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
$$
Forecaster...Ledbetter
Requested by...Aaron Strobel
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2509319.1/LWX
.DELDT 04/09/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL aaron.p.strobel@usda.gov,Ted.Docev@USDA.gov,James.Collett@USDA.gov