


Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
999 FNUS71 KLWX 191659 FWSLWX Spot Forecast for 202500001771...Shenandoah National Park National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1259 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1300 EDT on July 19. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION... Along Skyline Drive, daytime heating over the terrain has led to increasing cumulus development. Expect these to continue to grow in height over the next couple of hours which will yield scattered showers and thunderstorms. Looking west of I-81, a cluster of storms are already underway, mainly along the Pendleton/Rockingham county borders. While not severe in nature, these particular storms are producing frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and bringing some very heavy downpours. Any of these storms will increase the flash flood risk, especially for any cells that are slower moving. As these showers push eastward in time, some of these may impact this section of Skyline Drive within the next couple of hours. A Flood Watch remains in effect until 10 PM across this area given the potential for additional rounds of thunderstorms. On the temperature and humidity side, conditions remain humid amidst a persistent tropical air mass. With temperatures rising into the upper 70s, heat indices will push into the mid 80s this afternoon. Winds remain light outside of any thunderstorms. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered showers and thunderstorms early in the afternoon, then numerous showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......60 percent. Chance of thunder...60 percent. Max temperature.....Around 77. Min humidity........76 percent. Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming west around 5 mph late in the afternoon, then becoming light late in the afternoon. TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........70 84 84 81 76 Weather cov.....SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM Chc of pcpn (%).40 60 60 60 60 Chc of thdr (%).30 60 60 60 60 Temp............72 74 77 75 75 RH..............87 84 79 84 82 Surface wnd dir.S S SW W SW Surface wnd spd.3 3 3 5 3 Surface wnd gst.8 9 9 9 10 $$ Forecaster...Rubin-Oster Requested by...J. Britt Type of request...SAR .TAG 2518263.0/LWX .DELDT 07/19/25 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL shen_communication@nps.gov