Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
942
FNUS71 KLWX 081329
FWSLWX
Spot Forecast for Quantico Fire and Emergency Services...Quantico Fire and Emergency Services
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
829 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 EST on November 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
A cold front has just moved south of the wildfire location earlier
this morning, with clouds quickly dissipating and ample sunshine
expected today. A secondary, dry cold front crosses the area this
afternoon.
Expect northwest winds to increase late morning into this evening,
then diminish slightly overnight. Surface winds gust up to 20mph
this afternoon. Minimum relative humidity values crash this
afternoon to around 30 percent, and if deeper mixing occurs these
values could drop to the mid 20 percent range. Fuels continue to
dry due to the recent very dry pattern. All of this will result in
an increased risk for the rapid spread of fires this afternoon.
Smoke dispersion will be good this afternoon.
The breezy conditions and continued dry advection will lead to
rather gradual and poor RH recovery the first half of the night.
There may be a brief window of elevated fire weather conditions at
the wildfire location late Saturday morning into early Saturday
afternoon. This is due to occasional wind gusts around 20 mph, as
RH drops to around 30 percent. Winds quickly weaken and turn
northeast to east Saturday afternoon, though the conditions will
be very dry. Smoke dispersion is forecast to be good to very good
Saturday afternoon.
A widespread wetting rain is possible Sunday, though overall rain
amounts will be between a quarter to half of an inch.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (49000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds up to 6 mph.
TIME (EST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........24 16 8 7 5 4 6 7 9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............60 63 68 72 72 73 73 70 68
RH..............66 56 45 38 35 34 33 35 34
20 FT wind dir..N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..7 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 8
20 FT wind gust.14 17 16 17 17 17 16 15 13
Eye lvl wnd dir.N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.4 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.8 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.8 3.4 2.5
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.10 12 13 13 14 15 15 15 14
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13 19 28 34 41 49 49 45 30
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR PR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph shifting to the north 10
to 12 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (13100 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (1000 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds up to 6 mph.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........8 6 6 7 7 5 5 5 4 5 4 3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............63 59 57 56 56 54 53 52 50 49 48 46
RH..............39 44 47 49 47 50 52 54 58 63 65 68
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N N N
20 FT wind spd..7 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9
20 FT wind gust.14 14 14 15 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N N N
Eye lvl wnd spd.4 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4
Transp wind dir.W W NW NW NW NW N N N N N N
Transp wind spd.12 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13 3 1 2 4 3 3 3 3 5 5 3
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 8 to 10 mph shifting to the
northeast 5 to 7 mph early in the afternoon,
then becoming light late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 16 mph shifting to the northeast 2
to 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (42600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Eye level winds.....North winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the
northeast up to 4 mph early in the afternoon,
then becoming light late in the afternoon.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3 3 4 5 5 9 13 18 20 23 26 26
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............46 45 47 50 52 54 56 58 59 59 58 56
RH..............65 65 58 50 43 40 34 32 30 29 30 34
20 FT wind dir..N N N N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT wind spd..9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 3
20 FT wind gust.12 13 14 14 14 13 12 8 8 7 6 6
Eye lvl wnd dir.N N N N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE
Eye lvl wnd spd.5 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2
Eye lvl wnd gst.7 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 4 4 4
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.4 1.2 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.1
Transp wind dir.N N N N NE NE N N N NE NE NE
Transp wind spd.9 9 12 15 16 15 12 8 6 5 3 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 3 12 28 41 43 34 23 17 13 9 4
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR FR PR PR PR PR PR PR
$$
Forecaster...Rodriguez
Requested by...Benjamin Tanner
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2426109.0/LWX
.DELDT 11/08/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL benjaminctanner@gmail.com