Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
633
FNUS71 KLWX 080453
FWSLWX
Spot Forecast for Chestnut Fire...NPS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1153 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0005 EST on November 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY...
.DISCUSSION...
Behind a cold front, dry gusty winds arrive today with afternoon
gusts up to around 30 to perhaps 35 mph. The overall wind
direction should be fairly persistent out of the west-northwest.
Expected daytime RH values drop to around 25 percent, which
coupled with the gusts and dry fuels supports the Red Flag
Warnings in place. With sundown near 5 PM EST, do anticipate winds
to drop off through the evening given the loss of surface heating.
Residual gusts up to 15 to 20 mph are possible through the early
to mid evening before dropping off overnight. Nocturnal inversions
form overnight as surface temperatures drop to around 40 degrees.
Increased mixing should take place by the mid-morning once the
overnight inversions mix out. Gradients are weaker than Friday
which holds Saturday afternoon`s wind gusts to around 15 mph. High
pressure passing to the north will lead to some wind shifts
through the day. Expect mainly northerly winds for the first half
of Saturday before shifting to northeast to easterly later in the
day.
Wetting rains are expected on Sunday into early Monday as the next
weather system pushes through. This is followed by another dry
period through mid-week before another system with chances for
rain arrives on Thursday.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming sunny (0-5
percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........23 to 26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 14 to 16 mph with
gusts to around 30 mph during the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 3 to 10 mph shifting to the west 13
to 16 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (37200 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming west 8 to 10 mph with
gusts to around 18 mph.
TIME (EST) MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........29 34 31 28 19 4 1 0 0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............52 51 48 46 49 57 64 67 65
RH..............77 77 83 86 80 51 33 28 26
20 ft wind......N 3 NW 3 NW 3 NW 3 NW 7 NW 12 W 15 W 16 W 15
20 ft wind gust.5 5 5 6 9 22 28 30 28
Eye level wind..N 2 NW 2 NW 2 NW 2 NW 4 NW 7 W 9 W 10 W 9
Eye lvl wnd gst.3 3 3 4 5 13 17 18 17
Mix hgt (ft)....100 100 100 BLW100 400 1400 2500 2300 1100
Transport wind..NW 7 NW 6 NW 5 NW 3 NW 7 W 13 W 16 W 16 W 15
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 1 0 0 3 16 35 33 15
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 13 mph with gusts to
around 24 mph through the mid evening
shifting to the north around 6 mph early in
the morning.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds up to 8 mph with gusts to
around 14 mph shifting to the north around 4
mph early in the morning.
TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........1 1 0 2 2 1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............60 57 54 50 47 44
RH..............31 40 43 56 63 65
20 ft wind......W 13 NW 12 NW 12 NW 10 NW 8 NW 7
20 ft wind gust.24 22 22 13 10 9
Eye level wind..W 8 NW 7 NW 7 NW 6 NW 5 NW 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.14 13 13 8 6 5
Mix hgt (ft)....300 BLW100 100 100 100 100
Transport wind..W 9 NW 8 NW 10 NW 9 NW 7 NW 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 0 1 1 1 0
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........28 to 31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 13 mph shifting to the east 7
to 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 14 mph decreasing to around 3 mph
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (29700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Eye level winds.....North winds up to 8 mph shifting to the east up
to 5 mph late in the afternoon.
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........3 7 12 12 14 17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............41 43 48 53 56 55
RH..............70 60 46 36 31 30
20 ft wind......N 6 N 8 N 13 N 10 NE 8 E 8
20 ft wind gust.8 9 16 12 9 9
Eye level wind..N 4 N 5 N 8 N 6 NE 5 E 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.5 10 7
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 800 2400 2700 2700 2300
Transport wind..NW 5 N 8 N 14 N 9 N 6 N 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0 6 29 22 13 7
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
$$
Forecaster...Rubin-Oster
Requested by...Tim Culbreth
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2426009.1/LWX
.DELDT 11/08/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL timothy_culbreth@nps.gov