903
FNUS71 KLWX 181123
FWSLWX

Spot Forecast for Sherando RX...Forest service
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
623 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EST on November 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly cloudy skies this morning with moisture recoveries to
around 70 to 80 percent on the ridgetops. These clouds will
clear out by later this morning and give way to partly cloudy
skies for much of the day, before building back in later this
afternoon/evening. Temperatures remain above average today,
with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to low 60s along the
ridgetops, and upper 60s to low 70s down in the valleys.
Afternoon minimum RH values only drop to around 60% today and
winds should remain below 8 mph for much of the day, taking on
a largely terrain-driven upslope and upvalley flow.

A dry cold front will drop in from the north tonight, which will
result in cooler temperatures on Tuesday by about 5 degrees or so.
Tuesday morning will see similar recoveries along the ridgetops in
the 75 to 85 percent range as well as light downslope and down
drainage winds.

Look for very similar conditions early on Tuesday, albeit about
5 degrees cooler overall. Showers will start to move into the area
in the afternoon as a warm front lifts northward through the area.
Those should arrive just after noon Tuesday and continue for the
rest of the day.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (27700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EST)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........68     49     32     31     48
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0
Temp............51     57     61     63     61
RH..............66     64     60     60     65
20 ft wind......NW 6   NW 5   NW 5   W 3    W 2
20 ft wind gust.7      6      6      5      3
Mix hgt (ft)....500    1700   2500   2800   2400
Transport wind..NW 8   NW 15  NW 13  NW 9   NW 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4      22     27     22     17
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 1 to 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........57     62     64     49     43     45
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............55     53     52     50     50     49
RH..............74     77     77     83     83     83
20 ft wind......W 2    W 2    SW 2   SW 2   SW 2   S 3
20 ft wind gust.3      3      3      3      3      5
Mix hgt (ft)....800    BLW100 100    100    100    100
Transport wind..W 6    W 5    NW 3   NW 2   NW 2   N 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4      0      0      0      0      0
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 40 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon, then increasing to
                    around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 1 to 3 mph shifting to the southeast
                    2 to 7 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).

TIME (EST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........49        44        64        84
Weather cov.....                              CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         40
Temp............48        52        58        58
RH..............83        80        72        72
20 FT wind......SE 3G5    SE 5G6    S 6G7     S 7G8
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100    700       900       500
Transport wind..NW 1      SE 6      E 5       SE 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0         3         4         1
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

$$
Forecaster...Ledbetter
Requested by...Chris Schultz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2426806.0/LWX
.DELDT 11/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL christopher.schultz@usda.gov