Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
857
FNUS71 KLWX 271515
FWSLWX
Spot Forecast for HORSEHEAD ROAD FIRE...SHENANDOAH NATIONAL PARK
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1115 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1100 EDT on August 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
Dry conditions look to continue over the fire location this morning with
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies expected. The risk for showers and
thunderstorms will slowly increase later this afternoon between 2 to 5pm
as a slow moving cold front approaches the region. Overall looking at a 30
to 40 percent chance of thunderstorms over the fire location this afternoon
with coverage remaining scattered. The risk for a thunderstorm remains between
50 to 60 percent this evening before decreasing overnight. If storms due develop
expect gusty and erratic winds along with frequent lightning, large
hail, and locally heavy rainfall.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will may linger through the first half of the
night, but the risk for severe weather will diminish. The cold front itself will
be slow to move south Friday leading to additional shower and thunderstorm chances
during the afternoon and evening hours. Once again, coverage will be scattered
in and around the fire location with not everyone seeing rain. Damaging winds,
heavy rainfall, and lightning will be the primary threat with storms. High pressure
will build from the Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic coast this weekend.
Highs today will push up toward 90 degrees with southerly winds hovering between
5 to 10 mph gusting up to 20 mph along the exposed ridges at times. Winds will
remain out of the south at 5 to 10 mph overnight before switching to the west
northwest Friday morning and northeast Friday afternoon.
RHs each day remain in the upper 40s to low 50s at the lowest,
with excellent overnight recoveries expected each day.
For the areas that do manage to get thunderstorms through Friday,
they could pick up an a half an inch or so of rainfall, but doubt we see
that over any widespread area.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent shading). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the
afternoon with increasing this evening.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 40 percent.
Chance of thunder...35 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon and evening.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (21600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (46700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Eye level winds.....South winds up to 5 mph.
TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........35 43 55 55 61 60 65
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............10 10 10 20 30 30 40
Chc of thdr (%).10 10 10 20 30 30 30
Temp............81 85 85 86 87 85 83
RH..............67 57 55 54 50 58 63
20 FT wind dir..SW S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..6 6 7 7 8 7 7
20 FT wind gust.10 12 12 13 13 13 13
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW S S S S S S
Eye lvl wnd spd.4 4 4 4 5 4 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.6 7 7 8 8 8 8
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 4.6 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.5 3.5
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW S S S
Transp wind spd.8 9 9 10 10 12 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..22 37 42 47 44 45 28
Ventrate Cat....PR PR FR FR FR FR PR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent shading). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
graudally decreasing overnight.
CWR.................50 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
Chance of thunder...41 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 65.
Max humidity........98 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 9 mph shifting to the west around 3
mph late in the evening, then shifting to the
north 3 to 5 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18500 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (1200 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Eye level winds.....South winds up to 4 mph early in the evening
becoming light.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........68 65 73 67 58 63 71 63 55 59 67 65
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
CWR.............50 40 30 30 20 10 10 10 10 0 0 0
Chc of thdr (%).40 40 30 30 20 10 10 10 10 0 0 0
Temp............81 77 74 72 71 69 69 68 67 67 67 66
RH..............65 74 79 81 84 90 87 90 93 90 90 93
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S SW SW SW W W W W
20 FT wind spd..7 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 FT wind gust.12 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5
Eye lvl wnd dir.S S S S S SW SW SW W W W W
Eye lvl wnd spd.4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Eye lvl wnd gst.7 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Transp wind dir.S S S SE S W SW W W W N N
Transp wind spd.9 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent shading). Patchy fog early
in the morning. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon and early evening.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 40 percent.
Chance of thunder...36 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east around 5 mph late in
the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 3 to 5 mph shifting to the east around 6
mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (16800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming east around 3 mph late in
the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........66 70 54 55 55 53 51 65 68 63 61 61
Weather cov..... PTY PTY SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... FOG FOG RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 10 10 20 40 40 40 40
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 10 10 20 30 30 30 40
Temp............66 65 66 68 73 77 81 82 84 85 83 82
RH..............93 97 97 100 87 76 67 65 61 59 61 63
20 FT wind dir..W W NW NW N N N N NE NE E E
20 FT wind spd..1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 5 5
20 FT wind gust.5 3 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7
Eye lvl wnd dir.W W NW NW N N N N NE NE E E
Eye lvl wnd spd.1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3
Eye lvl wnd gst.3 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.6 3.7 4.0 4.2 3.2 2.9 2.3
Transp wind dir.N N N N N N N N NE E SE E
Transp wind spd.3 3 5 5 5 5 3 5 5 5 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 1 2 3 6 10 11 16 17 13 15 11
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
$$
Forecaster...Taylor
Requested by...IC ROBINSON
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2620702.0/LWX
.DELDT 08/27/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL shen_communication@nps.gov