Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
661
FNUS71 KLWX 091544
FWSLWX
Spot Forecast for Elizabeth...USFS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1044 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1100 EST on November 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will build from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic today, then move offshore tonight as a warm front
approaches from the Ohio River Valley. The warm front will lift
across the area Sunday as low pressure moves from the Upper
Midwest to the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada. A trailing
cold front will cross the region Monday, then a secondary dry cold
front will cross the area Tuesday. High pressure will follow for
the middle of the week before another frontal system crosses
Thursday into Friday.
Northerly wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph are likely over the Blue
Ridge and Catoctin mountains, as well as near and east of
US-15 through early this afternoon. At the same time, abundant dry
air advecting into the region will drop relative humidity to 25 to
35 percent, locally 10 to 20 percent over 2000 feet elevation by
early to mid afternoon. A window of overlap between breezy and dry
conditions may exist for several hours around midday, resulting in
locally elevated fire weather conditions and the threat for rapid
fire spread.
Winds will turn to the southeast tonight, becoming light to calm
in the lower elevations while gusting 15 to 25 mph over the higher
elevations. RH recovery will be modest overnight, generally 60 to
80 percent by daybreak Sunday. Southerly wind gusts of 15 to 25
mph are anticipated Sunday, but RH will be rising during this time.
A widespread wetting rain ranging from a quarter to half inch is
likely Sunday into Monday as a cold front crosses the region.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 7 mph late in the morning
becoming light.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 13 mph shifting to the east 3 to
5 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (28500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds up to 4 mph late in the morning
becoming light.
TIME (EST) 11 AM 2 PM 5 PM
Sky (%).........5 20 27
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0
Temp............53 59 53
RH..............41 30 38
20 FT wind......NE 7G12 E 5G7 E 3G7
Eye level wind..NE 4G7 E 3G4 E 2G4
Mix hgt (ft)....2600 2600 1600
Transport wind..NE 13 E 6 E 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..29 13 5
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph after
3 am.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 2 to 3 mph shifting to the south 2 to 8
mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming southwest up to 4 mph
after 3 am.
TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........28 51 45 66 82 75
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............49 45 43 42 43 44
RH..............44 51 57 59 64 64
20 ft wind......SE 2 SE 2 S 2 S 2 SW 3 SW 6
20 ft wind gust.6 6 7 9 10 13
Eye level wind..SE 1 SE 1 S 1 S 1 SW 2 SW 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.4 4 4 5 6 8
Mix hgt (ft)....800 BLW100 100 100 200 300
Transport wind..E 3 E 2 S 2 S 3 S 6 S 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 0 0 0 1 2
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain likely in
the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 70 percent in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
late in the morning then 20 mph early in the
afternoon, then then 21 mph late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (19300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Eye level winds.....South winds up to 6 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
late in the morning then 20 mph early in the
afternoon, then then 21 mph late in the
afternoon.
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........85 73 81 92 93 82
Weather cov..... LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RAIN RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 10 10 10 70 70
Temp............43 44 51 55 56 56
RH..............67 60 54 56 57 61
20 ft wind......SW 7 S 8 S 9 S 9 S 9 S 9
20 ft wind gust.15 17 18 18 20 20
Eye level wind..SW 4 S 5 S 5 S 5 S 5 S 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.9 10 11 11 12 12
Mix hgt (ft)....300 600 1100 1300 1000 500
Transport wind..S 9 S 13 S 16 S 17 S 16 S 16
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 6 15 19 15 8
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
$$
Forecaster...Rosa
Requested by...Lyte Gillespie
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2426190.0/LWX
.DELDT 11/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vavic@firenet.gov