495
FNUS71 KLWX 280543
FWSLWX

Spot Forecast for RT.33...shenandoah national park
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1243 AM EST Thu Nov 28 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0100 EST on November 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
A steady light rain is expected to reach the wildfire location by
around 3AM this morning. Rain continues through late morning,
then quickly comes to an end early this afternoon. Expect gusty
winds to develop this afternoon into late evening, with sustained
winds around 15-20 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Winds decrease
tonight to around 10-15 mph.

Dry and colder conditions for Friday. West winds increase again
Friday afternoon into Friday evening, gusting around 20-25 mph.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Chance of rain
                    overnight, then rain likely after 3 am. Patchy
                    fog after 3 am.
CWR.................40 percent increasing to 70 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1000 knot-ft).
Eye level winds.....South winds 6 to 7 mph.

TIME (EST)      1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........96  97  97  99  97
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............40  40  50  70  70
Temp............41  41  41  42  42
RH..............82  85  92  93  96
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..12  12  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.18  18  17  18  18
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.7   7   6   6   6
Eye lvl wnd gst.11  11  10  11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.6   7   7   7   6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1   2   2   2   1
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Patchy fog in the
                    morning. Rain in the morning, then chance of
                    rain showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................80 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 9 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 9 to 12 mph late in the morning, then
                    shifting to the northwest 14 to 20 mph with
                    gusts to around 32 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph increasing to west 16 to
                    25 mph late in the morning, then shifting to
                    the northwest 24 to 32 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (90200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing.
Eye level winds.....South winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 5 to 7 mph late in the morning, then
                    shifting to the northwest 8 to 12 mph with
                    gusts to around 19 mph in the afternoon.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........96  96  92  88  82  72  67  61  51  41  33  27
Weather cov.....DEF LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............80  70  70  60  40  30  30  10  10  10  0   0
Temp............41  42  43  45  47  48  49  48  46  44  42  40
RH..............96  96  96  96  96  86  77  71  68  68  70  73
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   9   10  12  14  17  17  20  18  18
20 FT wind gust.17  16  16  16  17  20  24  28  30  31  32  29
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.5   5   5   5   6   7   8   10  10  12  11  11
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  12  14  17  18  19  19  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.6 4.4 4.5 4.2 3.5 2.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.3   5   9   16  22  25  29  30  31  32  30  24
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0   1   3   11  27  54  90  114 123 118 92  52
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  VGD VGD VGD GD  FR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 28.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 11 to 16 mph decreasing to 5 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........20     11     11     13     14     14
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      10     10     10     0      0
Temp............38     36     34     33     32     31
RH..............76     75     78     75     75     78
20 ft wind......NW 16  NW 14  NW 12  NW 10  NW 10  NW 9
20 ft wind gust.25     21     18     16     15     15
Eye level wind..NW 10  NW 8   NW 7   NW 6   NW 6   NW 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.15     13     11     10     9      9
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   BLW100 200    200    200    200
Transport wind..NW 16  W 8    W 8    W 7    W 7    W 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..18     0      2      1      1      1
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 40.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 8 mph increasing to 14 to 18 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (79600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Eye level winds.....West winds up to 8 mph.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........14     17     22     24     21     10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............30     31     35     38     39     37
RH..............78     75     66     57     48     48
20 ft wind......W 7    W 7    W 8    W 10   W 13   W 13
20 ft wind gust.13     12     17     20     22     22
Eye level wind..W 4    W 4    W 5    W 6    W 8    W 8
Eye lvl wnd gst.8      7      10     12     13     13
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 1200   3800   5000   5000   4000
Transport wind..W 3    W 8    W 17   W 18   W 17   W 17
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0      9      58     80     75     59
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   FAIR   GOOD   GOOD   FAIR

$$
Forecaster...Rodriguez
Requested by...ranger k good
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2427454.0/LWX
.DELDT 11/28/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL shen_communication@nps.gov