633
FXUS61 KLWX 111412
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1012 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure builds overhead this afternoon, leading
to the continuation of dry conditions and warming temperatures.
Multiple dry and weak frontal boundaries move through the region
Wednesday through the end of the week, ahead of another low
pressure system set to impact the region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Despite plenty of sunshine and calm to light winds across the
region, temperatures are a little slower at climbing to above
average for this afternoon. A southerly flow will continue to
develop and usher in plenty of warm air. Highs will reach the
lower 70s. Those in NE MD and/or at higher elevations will stay
in the upper 60s this afternoon.

With warm temperatures, sunny skies, low RH, and gusty winds
expected, elevated fire weather conditions are expected. The
greatest risk fire weather is along and west of the Blue Ridge,
where favorable conditions overlap best. W/SW winds gusts 15 to
20 mph along and west of the Blue Ridge. An SPS remains in
effect for an elevated threat for rapid fire spread.

Tonight, a moisture starved cold front is forecast to drop
through the forecast area. Overnight low temperatures will be in
the 40s across the area with only those at higher elevations in
the Alleghenies dipping into the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions continue Wednesday as the aforementioned cold
front stalls along the southern border of the forecast area.
There is a large spread in the high temperature forecast for
WEdnesday given the uncertainty on where the frontal boundary
will stall. Currently have a tight temperature gradient across
the area with highs in the 50s for NE MD and highs in the mid
70s for central VA. Overall, temperatures will be slightly
cooler on Wednesday.

High pressure continues to build to our northeast Thursday, with
dry conditions expected to continue. The only exception will be
for those west of the Alleghenies where there is a slight
chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Conditions will likely
be dry, although cannot rule out rain showers in this area.
Cloud cover will increase throughout the day due to a weak CAD
wedge. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than Wednesday with
highs in the 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
It`s looking more likely high pressure over New England will remain
wedged southwestward along the Appalachians on Friday, challenging
the surface front/marine air from lifting north. Morning stratus may
have difficulty scouring out, with the highest chance of sun in the
central Shenandoah Valley and southern Potomac Highlands. The
current forecast calls for highs in the 60s, but some places could
easily stay in the 50s if it remains cloudy all day. There are also
increasing signs the stratus could redevelop or expand Friday night
into Saturday morning. While the strengthening southerly gradient
may eventually win out Saturday afternoon, plentiful high level
clouds will be in place by that time. So while the current
temperature forecast in the mid 60s to lower 70s has ensemble
support, there is much more room for lower temperatures in the
spread vs. higher. Showers and perhaps even a stray thunderstorm are
also possible Saturday, especially west of the Blue Ridge which will
be closer to a lead shortwave and increasing moisture/lift ahead of
the system over the western Great Lakes.

The cold front associated with the dynamic Midwest system may take
its time working through the area, as the parent low at the surface
and aloft races northward toward Hudson Bay Sunday, leaving the
longwave trough axis lagging behind the front. Sunday is still the
most likely day for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms. A high
shear low CAPE severe threat may still evolve, with the main
uncertainties involving the amount of instability and the evolution
of precipitation, as shear vectors will be nearly parallel to the
precipitation band. This could ultimately just result in a period of
moderate to heavy rain. However, gradient winds will remain gusty in
their own right, especially in the higher elevations. Temperatures
will be very mild, with Saturday night lows only dropping to the
upper 50s/lower 60s, and Sunday`s highs potentially reaching the 70s.

The slow moving nature of the trough means that clouds and some
showers could linger over portions of the area through early Monday
before clearing takes place Monday afternoon. While it will be
cooler than preceding days, temperatures will likely remain above
normal. Winds will also be gusty out of the W-NW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through Thursday across
all terminals as dry conditions persist throughout the region.
Winds out of the W/SW this afternoon will shift to SE on
Wednesday as a frontal boundary moves through the area. Winds
are expected to remain relatively light, blowing 5 to 10 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Light and variable
winds are expected each night. Sub-VFR stratus is possible
Thursday night due a weak CAD wedge.

With high pressure wedged east of the mountains and light east to
southeast winds, sub-VFR stratus appears possible Friday morning and
again Friday night into Saturday morning. However, it could persist
throughout Friday for portions of the area. Southerly wind gusts
could reach 20-25 kt by Saturday afternoon and a few rain showers
will be possible, especially at MRB.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria this afternoon.
A cold front moving over the waters may lead to a brief period
of wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots early Wednesday morning. Winds
will likely be too brief to issue a SCA, but a MWS is possible.
Winds remain below SCA criteria Thursday as high pressure
remains to our northeast.

East to southeast winds are expected to remain below advisory
thresholds Friday and Friday night. Southerly winds will strengthen
ahead of the next system on Saturday, with advisory conditions
possible.

Given the forecast for warm temperatures in the coming days, it is
likely that there will be a large increase in mariners on local
waterways this coming week. However, remember that just because the
air is warm, it doesn`t mean that the water is warm. Mariners should
be aware of the threats of boating in cold water and take the proper
precautions to protect yourselves and your passengers. Visit
weather.gov/safety/coldwater for more info.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather will be a concern this afternoon across the area,
with conditions favorable for the rapid spread of wildfires.
Southerly flow will usher in plenty of warm air with high
temperatures expected to rise into the upper 60s to mid 70s. RH
values less than 25% combined with sunny skies, gusty winds, and
drying fuels will lead to elevated fire weather concerns along
and west of the Blue Ridge. A Special Weather Statement remains
in effect for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge, where
conditions will overlap the best.

Winds diminish slightly on Wednesday, although low RH and dry
conditions will continue. One complicating factor with the Wednesday
forecast is the backdoor cold front moving in from the north. Where
this front sets up will make a big difference on temperatures and RH
across the area.It is possible an SPS would be needed Wednesday, but
need to further assess the wind threat before any decision is made
on that.

Looking to the rest of the week ahead, RH will gradually rise in
south to southwest flow ahead of an approaching frontal system late
week. Winds will be marginal Thursday before picking up again on
Friday. However, RH values going up should help to alleviate some of
the fire weather concerns later in the week. Further evaluation will
be needed if there are changes in the forecast in the coming days
however, because fuels will only get drier with warm temperatures,
sunny skies, and no precipitation forecast.

Significant wetting rain remains likely this weekend as a strong
frontal system pushes through the area. This will bring the threat
of thunderstorms, especially on Sunday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS/KLW
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW
FIRE WEATHER...ADS