980
FXUS61 KLWX 230131
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
931 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move up the Atlantic coast toward New England
through Friday. Below normal temperatures and periodic showers
will continue. High pressure will attempt to build in from the
northwest Saturday, but a warm front will begin approaching from
the southwest Sunday. Another system across the southern U.S. may
impact the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As showers exit Northeast MD over the next few hours this
evening, additional upslope showers will linger through much of
the night in the Appalachians. Elsewhere, drier air will filter
in behind the departing coastal low overnight into early Friday.
The highest elevations, above 4000 feet in the ridges could
encounter a few wet flakes or sleet pellets overnight. Low
temps will range from the upper 30s over the mountain ridges
to the mid 50s in the metro areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The trailing upper low will pivot across NY and PA on Friday. A
secondary cold front could trail along or near our northern
zones Friday afternoon into Friday evening, resulting in a few
rain showers. Winds could gust 25 to 35 mph Friday as mixing
gets going late Friday morning and continues with some sunshine
in the afternoon.

As showers weaken and fade later Friday evening, the winds will
lessen as well. High pressure will pass to the north Saturday
with dry weather and below normal temperatures. A warm front
will develop well to the south and west of the CWA Saturday
night, and some high clouds may begin to increase late.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ensembles and deterministic model guidance has a nearly zonal
upper-level flow building over the region on Sunday and
remaining in place through the early parts of next week. A warm
front/pseudo-stationary front will likely be positioned
somewhere over the southern Mid-Atlantic/northern parts of the
SE US. Shortwave energy moving along the nearly zonal flow will
generate sfc lows along the front leading to multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms being possible. As of right now,
guidance has our region on the northern edge of this setup with
the boundary far enough south that we may only see a few
passing showers Sunday through Monday. If front ends up being
further north than what models are showing, then we could be in
for another active week of rain especially if parts of our
region sneak into the warm sector located south of the front.
Below normal temperatures are favored to continue if the region
remains on the cool side of the boundary.

The zonal flow aloft is forecast to start to break down sometime
Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper-level trough starts to
approach from the Great Lakes region. Some models have a coastal
low forming along the front to the south and lifting northeast
through parts of our region. This will be the best chance for
widespread precipitation with the best chances for precip being
Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will be expected at the terminals overnight and
during the day Friday with a gusty northwest wind. Gusts
could reach 30 knots at times. A couple of pop up showers are
possible. Winds will become lighter Friday night, then gusts
resume during the day Saturday but at slightly lower speeds as
high pressure passes to the north. Winds slacken again after
dark Saturday night while remaining NW.

Sub-VFR conditions will be possible at times if the region
experiences showers and thunderstorms Sun-Mon. The best chance
for aviation restrictions in the long term will be Tue-Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will lessen overnight but then rebound throughout the day
on Friday with diurnal mixing and high pressure building in from
the west. Winds could gust to 30 knots at times. Winds will
become lighter Friday night, then increase again during the day
on Saturday.

Near SCA conditions will be possible during the end of the long term
period (Wednesday - Thursday) due to a passing coastal low.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides are running on the high side this evening into the
overnight for Calvert, Anne Arundel Counties.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for MDZ008.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for MDZ018.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530-
     531-538-539-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...KLW/DHOF
SHORT TERM...KLW/DHOF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...KLW/DHOF/JMG
MARINE...KLW/DHOF/JMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLW